Rolleston’s rapid rise: 5000 new homes in next five years

Monday, 30 March 2026

Carolina Lobo and Alex Teixeira are among thousands of people who are making Rolleston their home.

Rolleston is on the brink of another transformation with 5000 new homes set to drive its population beyond that of Invercargill or Rotorua.

The town, which is in the country’s fastest-growing district, is on track to fulfil former prime minister Norman Kirk’s prediction of “the city of the future” in less than a decade.

Construction analyst Mike Blackburn said Rolleston was in the midst of a “construction boom”, with multiple large-scale developments under way. While difficult to predict precisely, he estimated about 5000 new homes could be built in the next five years.

Each year, Rolleston accounts for roughly half of all new homes consented in the Selwyn district (annual percentages in right column).

With the average rate of 2.9 people per household, this could mean 14,500 more people or a more than 40% increase on its current population.

Blackburn said he was “very confident” Rolleston would continue to be a popular choice for families looking for “lifestyle and backyards”.

In recent years, Selwyn has been the fastest-growing district in the country, growing more than 5% a year. At its heart is Rolleston which according to Infometrics has more than doubled in size since 2015 from 12,900 to today’s 34,100 residents.

Based on Stats NZ data, Rolleston could hit the unofficial benchmark to be considered a city of 50,000 in the early 2030s, and by 2050 could surpass the population of 12 existing cities, including Invercargill, Nelson, Whangārei, Hastings, New Plymouth and Rotorua.

“The really good news is that there is sufficient forward land development to meet expected growth, which will help stabilise land prices,” Blackburn said.

He also noted a shift toward medium-density housing.

Homes being built in Rolleston’s Harrow Green subdivision.

“Builders are now putting smaller houses on smaller sections — sometimes as small as 350m² to 400m² — to provide options for retirees and young families who don’t want large gardens.”

Kevler Homes was amongst those building in the area, with 260 houses planned for its Harrow Green subdivision on Rolleston’s southern fringe, near the Springston Rolleston Road.

Operations manager Rob Preston said the town was highly attractive for developers.

“The demand for housing here is high, and the ground conditions are solid — ideal for construction, especially after the earthquakes.

“It’s a market-driven environment. People want to live here because of the location, affordability and community.”

Family appeal

For Carolina Lobo and Alex Teixeira, that demand translated into opportunity. After months of struggling to enter the housing market in Christchurch, they found a home in Rolleston.

Carolina Lobo and Alex Teixeira say the new stock and affordability was a drawcard for them to buy a property in Rolleston.

With five children, they had searched extensively for properties that suited their needs, but many were either unsuitable or required significant work. A visit to Rolleston last September, changed that.

“The moment we walked through the door, we immediately felt this was it ‒ our home,” Carolina said.

The affordability and the newer property, along with a garden, were very attractive to them. Several months on, their initial concerns about the distance from Christchurch have evaporated.

“I was worried about the commute [into Christchurch’s CBD], but to be honest, most days we used to spend more time in traffic getting into town from Burnside than it takes us now,” Lobo said.

This map shows Rolleston’s new developments with those in orange and purple as newly built or planned and blue already completed.

Alex agreed. “We have everything we need here in Rolleston and a feeling of community spirit that is heart-warming.”

Rapid growth also brought pressures.

Rolleston Residents’ Association chairman and former councillor Mark Alexander said planning remained a major challenge, particularly the perception that new subdivisions boost council revenue.

“Subdivisions aren’t the cash cow that people think they are. Sometimes new subdivisions cost more than they generate.”

Best Start West Village opened less than six months ago and was already at 60% capacity.

Councils often borrow to fund infrastructure, spreading costs across current and future residents, he said, an approach known as intergenerational equity.

A map created by Blackburn showed the area set aside for new developments was around 650 to 700 hectares ‒ roughly the size of the Christchurch red zone ‒ and 50% more than the town’s 2012 footprint.

Dipika Gideon says offering quality is the key to dealing with increased competition.

Alexander was concerned about urban expansion onto farmland, saying it could also put pressure on food supply.

He also said the government needed to be more proactive to keep up with the population growth, especially around schooling.

“

We know in Rolleston that there’s on average one school-aged child per house. When you’re looking at 5000 more houses, you could be looking at 5000 more students.”

As Rolleston’s population increases, so too does traffic congestion.

Schools feeling the strain

West Rolleston Primary School principal Sylvia Fidow said uncertainty around future developments was a challenge. The nearby Carter Group development was expected to deliver 3500 homes, adding pressure to the 740-student school.

To increase capacity, they would need more money and more classrooms.

“We would just love some clarity from the council, from the Carter Group, just to let us know what the timelines are so that we can plan for growth. We would need to be looking into [constructing] new buildings and this requires time and investment.”

Early childhood education was under similar pressure. Rolleston has more than 20 centres, but demand remained high.

Best Start opened a West Village branch in September — its seventh in the town — and centre manager Anna Sloss said they were already at 60% capacity.

“There’s a lot of other centres that are referring children to us.

“We just have pretty much a constant stream of parents coming in the door and needing the service for their families.”

Growth was also reshaping the business landscape. Thousands of businesses were now operating in Rolleston, with numbers growing rapidly alongside its population boom.

The Makeover Lounge owner Dipika (Dippy) Gideon said this also meant increased competition, with several salons nearby.

“For me, it is about offering something different ‒ creating a bond with customers and hoping they come back.”