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Pegasus golf land is just part of the challenge facing Waimakariri housing growth

Tuesday, 16 June 2026

An aerial view of new housing in Kaiapoi. A report assessing the region’s housing potential argues that with Kaiapoi largely built out, the Waimakariri district is depending on Rangiora to drive growth, writes Mike Yardley.
An aerial view of new housing in Kaiapoi. A report assessing the region’s housing potential argues that with Kaiapoi largely built out, the Waimakariri district is depending on Rangiora to drive growth, writes Mike Yardley.

Mike Yardley is a Christchurch-based writer and commentator on current affairs, and a regular opinion contributor.

OPINION: Why is Selwyn continuing to dramatically outstrip Waimakariri in housing growth?

After streaking out of the post-earthquake housing development gates, Waimakariri’s growth path has tapered off, paling in comparison to its southern sister.

In the year to April, Christchurch city consented 4600 new homes, Selwyn 2100, while Waimakariri only issued 750 consents.

The latest Canterbury Construction Report points out that 20 years ago, Waimakariri had 43,000 residents, while Selwyn was home to 34,000. In 2018, the two districts had similarly sized populations. But by 2028, Selwyn’s population is projected to hit 100,000 compared to 71,000 in Waimakariri.

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Selwyn, powered by growth in Rolleston, has raced ahead of Waimakariri in the population stakes over the past two decades, writes Mike Yardley.
Selwyn, powered by growth in Rolleston, has raced ahead of Waimakariri in the population stakes over the past two decades, writes Mike Yardley.

The report’s author is Canterbury’s widely regarded construction analyst, Mike Blackburn, who is highlighting the issues behind the growing disparity and the challenges facing Waimakariri.

Dovetailing with this is Wolfbrook’s polarising purchase of Pegasus Golf Course for conversion to housing.

Blackburn is warning that Waimakariri’s housing growth is too dependent on Rangiora; that Kaiapoi is built out and Woodend is running out of available land. He argues that Selwyn’s superior and sustained growth rate is underpinned by making a wider choice of sections, subdivision developments and housing options available across multiple locations (Rolleston, West Melton, Lincoln, Prebbleton, Darfield and Leeston).

In fairness, Waimakariri, like Selwyn, has been one of New Zealand’s top 10 growth districts since the turn of the century.

Waimakariri Mayor Dan Gordon takes issue with Blackburn’s Rangiora-centric concern, arguing that his district plan provides capacity for between 14,000 and 17,000 dwellings to be built over the coming 30 years.

“This capacity is spread across Rangiora, Kaiapoi, Oxford and Woodend so I am somewhat perplexed he has come to that conclusion.”

But if you look at the April monthly consenting data, 41 consents were issued for Rangiora, 16 in Kaiapoi, seven in Woodend and just two in Oxford.

Gordon tells me that while growth is great, “it’s not a competition” and “you don’t want growth for growth’s sake”. He says the district plan clearly directs future development to ensure the “unique character of Waimakariri towns remain”.

Mike Blackburn, a construction management consultant who has produced the report assessing Canterbury’s construction market.
Mike Blackburn, a construction management consultant who has produced the report assessing Canterbury’s construction market.

Blackburn doesn’t believe Gordon’s council is guilty of poor planning, but does question whether enough of that future capacity is progressing through the development pipeline quickly enough to ensure a consistent supply of development-ready land over the next five to 10 years.

“The distinction is important. There is a significant difference between land identified for future urban growth and land that can be purchased, subdivided, serviced and built on today,” says Blackburn.

As to the reliance on Rangiora to drive new housing growth, Blackburn argues that’s not an immediate problem today, but it does raise questions about where the district’s next generation of housing supply will come from.

Gordon counters that there are large developments coming soon. As an example, he cites the Greesons Rd development between Ravenswood and Waikuku, “which will deliver approximately 1500 homes”.

Blackburn concurs that both Greesons Rd and also the Beaconsfield site near Woodend are “significant future developments”.

But identifying future growth areas and zoning sufficient land ahead of demand is one thing – what about enabling delivery?

Blackburn believes coordinating infrastructure planning and working collaboratively with developers to address barriers to delivery is “possibly where some problems lie” with the Waimakariri District Council.

What about the topic du jour – the Pegasus Golf Course?

Blackburn argues, “it’s difficult to ignore the potential contribution that such a site could make to future residential development”. Some of the land could be built on quite quickly, while large-scale housing development across the 77 hectares would take longer, if Wolfbrook manages to get the land rezoned.

Meanwhile, after flexing his mayoral muscle into the showdown, Gordon confirms a broad consortium of parties “have expressed an interest in being part of a potential wider offer to Wolfbrook” to purchase the site.

Gordon wouldn’t be drawn on whether Pegasus ratepayers should fully fund any council-related buyback costs by way of a levy.

“Once we have a proposal to put forward, the next step will be to test this with Wolfbrook,” says Gordon.

But beyond the Pegasus stoush, the real challenge for Waimakariri is to deliver a consistent pipeline of development-ready land and near-term supply, right across what remains a very desirable district to live in.