Coalition would be gone at election, Opportunity nears 5% new TVNZ poll suggests
Tuesday, 23 June 2026
The latest 1News-Verian poll suggests Christopher Luxon’s Coalition would be gone and replaced by a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Government this November.
It also suggests a big bump in popularity for the Opportunity Party, nearing the 5% threshold to enter Parliament under its numbers.
On Tuesday night the 1News-Verian poll showed Opportunity had reached 4.6%, while Labour had dropped from 37% down to 32%, compared to the last poll.
National had dropped by 1 percentage point from 30% down to 29%, the first time the party has been in the 20s under Luxon as leader in this poll
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The Greens are up by 2 points, from 11% to 13%, New Zealand First moved up from 10% to 11%, ACT dropped by 1 point, down to 6%, and Te Pāti Māori were on 1.8%, up 0.3 point.
Opportunity rose to 4.6%, up 1.3 point from the last poll.
The poll suggested that would translate to the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori having 64 seats, compared withto 60 for the right bloc of National, NZ First and ACT.
In a statement Opportunity party leader Qiulae Wong said the poll reflected the feedback she was hearing on the ground.
“People are frustrated with the flip flops, the bickering and the division. They expect better from their leaders and are looking for a constructive circuit breaker for politics.
“Increasingly, Kiwis feel that Opportunity is that party.”
In April, the 1News Verian Poll suggested the centre-left bloc would get into power under its numbers, and came just days before Luxon called a vote on his leadership.
Preferred Prime Minister
Christopher Luxon has topped the preferred prime minister ranking in this poll - up 2 points to 18% compared with the previous poll.
Labour’s Chris Hipkins fell by 3 points, from 19% to 16%.
NZ First leader Winston Peters was down from 12% to 10%, Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick remained on 6%, while ACT leader David Seymour remained on 4%.
While not necessarily the most accurate polls historically, TVNZ polls have among the highest visibility among party members, activists and donors and so can sometimes strongly influence internal party politics.