Predicting the World Cup winners - and how the All Whites will fare
Sunday, 7 June 2026
ANALYSIS: Lionel Messi finally got to lift the trophy in Qatar in 2022 - could he do so again aged 39 in the United States?
Beaten finalists four years ago, France loom as an obvious threat to dethrone Argentina at the 2026 football World Cup, stacked with attacking talent, while European champions Spain are joint-favourites.
New Zealand will contest Group G with Belgium, Egypt and Iran as they seek to make the second round of the tournament for the first time in three appearances.
Football writers Tony Smith and Ian Anderson try and prove their salt by predicting what may happen when it all kicks off on Friday morning (NZT).
Who makes the final, and who wins?
Tony Smith: Impossible to look past France (ranked 1st) and Spain (2nd). Let’s hope for a repeat of their 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinal (won by Spain 5-4). Both brim with quality - Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, Rayan Cherki and Lucas Hernandez for France; Yamine Lamal, Nico Williams, Rodri and Pedri for Spain. Who wins?: France to shade it in extra-time through their extraordinary bench strength. No penalty shootout please.
Ian Anderson: Spain and Argentina, with ‘La Roja’ taking the crown off the defending champions.
Spain will field a top-drawer goalkeeper, a solid defence, a mouthwatering midfield and flair up front. The Euro 2024 champions have a cakewalk group, ‘featuring’ Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia, which will allow Luis de la Fuente to ease star teenager Lamine Yamal back from his hamstring injury.
After Messi finally gained a winner’s medal four years ago, Argentina’s talisman will have less pressure on him in his swansong, and the outfit is capable of functioning well - and in a different style - without him.
Emi Martinez and Marcos Senesi will be key figures in stopping the opposition, while Lautaro Martinez and Julian Avarez give them plenty of punch up front.
Other contenders/underdogs to watch
TS: Contenders: England (ranked 4th) have a serious shot at their first semifinal since their sole World Cup triumph in 1966. Jordan Pickford has kept 10 clean sheets in 11 games, Declan Rice pulls the midfield strings and Harry Kane is Europe’s leading goalscorer.
Don’t discount titleholders Argentina (ranked 3rd), led by the incomparable Lionel Messi at his sixth World Cup, backed by Lautaro Martinez, Serie A’s top scorer with champions Inter Milan.
Underdogs: Football romantics would love to see Belgium shine to cap Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku’s careers and launch Manchester City’s Jérémy Doku on the World Cup stage. Morocco, led by Paris Saint-Germain’s Achaf Hakimi, are African champions. Japan beat England in March and have a balanced squad. They will miss the injured Kaoru Mitoma, but could become the first Asian side since South Korea in 2022 to make the final four. Senegal will be smarting after being stripped of the African Cup of Nations title despite beating Morocco 3-0. Could repeat their 2022 World Cup opening round win over France.
IA: Contenders: France are the glaringly obvious ones - they literally have an embarrassment of riches in attacking talent, as there’ll be some potential matchwinners on the bench. But there’s genuine doubts over other areas, despite the presence of William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano, and that could lead to a ‘Brazil 1982’ situation in the knockout stages, after tough group games versus Norway and Senegal.
Portugal could easily be rated above England and Brazil, even if Cristiano Ronaldo’s presence may be more hindrance than help. They have a relatively easy group, some excellent defenders and the midfield brilliance of Bruno Fernandes and the PSG duo of Joao Neves and Vitinha.
Underdogs: Could Pele’s prediction of an African side winning the World Cup for the first time finally come true? Morocco and Senegal fought out - again, literally - the Africa Cup of Nations final last year, after the former made the 2002 World Cup semifinals. Senegal reached the quarterfinals and have an outstanding blend of experience and youth.
Golden Boot/Golden Ball winners
TS: Kylian Mbappé could become only the third player to win the Golden Boot top scorer and Golden Ball MVP awards at the same tournament. He and England’s Harry Kane are legitimate contenders for a second Golden Boot. Mbappé won it in 2022 with eight goals - helped by a hat-trick in the final - but 2018 winner Kane might shade it this time. He’s England’s main scorer while France have more options.
The World Cup champion has produced five of the last 11 Golden Ball winners. This year’s looms as a three-horse race. Messi can become the first three-time winner, but is 38 now, and Mbappé and Lamal appeal among his younger challenges. Mbappé should sneak it with France tipped to win the final.
IA: If you’re a defender and fancy your chances of being named as the tournament’s best player, you’ve probably made too many headers.
An attacking player has claimed 10 of the 11 titles since first won by Italy’s Paolo Rossi when introduced in 1982, with German goalie Oliver Kahn the odd man out in 2002.
Mbappé and Yamal are therefore favourites, along with England’s Harry Kane and Mbappé’s team-mate Michael Olise. But Spanish midfielder Pedri is a dark horse, alongside Argentina’s Alvarez, who can score and create.
The same names head the Golden Boot odds for top goalscorer, but Russia’s Oleg Salenko was joint-winner of this award in 1994 with six, after scoring all but one of them versus Cameroon.
Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal has understandably been the big mover with the bookmakers, seeing his odds halved - he will be the side’s first-choice central striker, feeding off Yamal and Nico Williams, and takes the penalties also.
Will the All Whites get past the group stage?
TS: Who cares about the champion? A successful World Cup would mean the All Whites making the knockout phase for the first time.
That will depend on three critical factors: Captain Chris Wood staying fit; scooping at least one win - with the opener against Iran the obvious target and scoring enough goals to snare a third-place qualifier’s slot. Scoring has been an issue against non-Oceania teams until a recent 4-1 win over Chile. If Wood’s wonky knee plays up, goals could be at a premium.
Darren Bazeley’s players have plenty of club experience in Europe, but the 85th-ranked All Whites are punching above their weight against Belgium (9th), Iran (21st) and Egypt (29th, but boasting Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush). Advancement chances aren’t as high as 2010.
IA: No one expected the New Zealand side to be unbeaten at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.
So why not expect them to go one better in their third tournament appearance, with a better squad?
Iran may be ranked 21st by Fifa, but don’t expect them to be far superior to Darren Bazeley’s troops.
Iran’s build-up to the tournament has had to be greatly affected by the ongoing military conflict with the United States, while NZ’s has gone smoothly once Chris Wood regained fitness.
A win in the group opener could be enough for the All Whites to advance to the next round as one of the eight best-ranked third-placed teams.