Beijing uses smoke and mirrors in effort to hit climate targets

Thursday, 4 June 2026

China

China has made an accounting adjustment to how it measures carbon emissions, making its climate change targets easier to meet.

The world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide was previously due to fall far short of the 2025 target it set for UN climate change negotiations.

However, a significant revision to how it measures emissions means China has officially come close to meeting the goal.

The shift also means Chinese leaders can claim to have met their international climate commitments for 2030 even if the country's emissions rise. Previously they would have had to fall.

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Helsinki-based think tank, said the timing of the change was “obviously motivated” by the need to reduce the shortfall for the climate target for last year.

Lauri Myllyvirta, the centre's lead analyst, estimated the accounting shift had erased about half of China's growth in emissions between 2020 and last year. The reduction in emissions is big: 700 million to 730 million fewer tonnes of CO₂ a year, or about twice Britain's annual emissions.

China is responsible for more than a third of the world's carbon emissions, so its decisions are crucial for determining future global warming. The country has positioned itself as a green leader, exporting wind and solar power components and electric cars to the world.

Most rich countries have committed themselves to absolute reductions in emissions as part of their UN climate commitments.

However, China instead set a “carbon intensity” target for last year, a measure of the amount of the emissions per unit of GDP. That meant it could continue to grow its economy so long as it decarbonised at the same time.

Chinese officials recently quietly announced changes to how they defined the carbon intensity metric.

Under the new accounting, China now includes CO₂ from industrial processes, such as cement and metals production. Crucially, it excludes the non-energy use of fossil fuels. This means that coal, oil and gas used as raw materials in the country's growing chemical industry are no longer factored in. The result is far lower emissions. Official statistics previously suggested China's emissions rose by 14% between 2020 and last year. Under the revision, the growth appears to be 7% .

China would previously have missed its target of reducing carbon intensity by 18% by last year, with only a 12.4% reduction. The new accounting method allows the government to claim a 17.7% reduction.

Myllyvirta said: “China's decision sets this precedent where if your progress is lagging, you just come up with a way of making the numbers look better. That's a potentially very damaging precedent.'

Given the UN framework for the Paris agreement in effect relies on peer pressure between countries and international diplomatic embarrassment, there is no official sanction for China revising its accounting at such a late stage.