Do NZ house prices still double every 10 years?
Monday, 19 January 2026
The long-held adage about house prices doubling every 10 years is no longer true for much of the country ‒ and that’s not a bad thing, one economist says.
New data from Realestate.co.nz shows that in the 10 years to 2025 prices in 12 of the 19 regions monitored had not doubled by the end of the period.
Nationally, the average asking price was up 55.1% to $863,747 in 2025 from $556,931 in 2015.
In Auckland, the country’s biggest property market, the average asking price increased just 23.5% to $1.04 million in 2025 from $846,730 in 2015.
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Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams said while many people believed house prices doubled every 10 years, the current cycle showed that belief was not true.
“Over the past decade, we have seen significant regional variation and, in many areas, growth has fallen well short of that aspirational ‘doubling in value’ benchmark.”
Auckland’s prices increased by the least of all regions, but none of the other major centres saw their average asking price double over the decade.
Waikato had the biggest increase in average asking price, up 95.9% to $795,097 from $405,770 in 2015.
Meanwhile, Wellington’s average was up 73.4% to $818,506 from $472,141, and Canterbury’s was up 53.7% to $724,730 from $471,663.
Of the seven regions where prices went up by double or more over the period, Gisborne turned in the biggest increase. Its average asking price was up 145.5% to $697,527 in 2025 from $284,134 in 2015.
The other regions to see prices increase by over 100% were Manawatū/Whanganui, Central North Island, Southland, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa and Coromandel.
Williams said this was in contrast to the decade to 2022 where every single region’s average asking price had doubled quite easily.
But she was not surprised by the latest data because the huge Covid-era market boom had been followed by a significant correction and the market had been quite static since.
“While prices generally rise over time, growth is rarely linear and depends heavily on when in the cycle someone buys and sells, so people need to do the maths on their own home.”
Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen said ending the notion of prices doubling every 10 years was helpful, because the expectation of sustained, large gains in prices shaped conditions in people’s minds, and led them to base financial decisions on it.
“If you think that a house will inevitably deliver really good, strong returns, why wouldn’t you put your money into it?
“But the data shows house price growth is not fool-proof, and in reality no asset class should be seen as gold-plated.”
Knowing that should contribute to a healthy reset of expectations and lead people to case round a bit more when looking at what to invest in, Olsen said.
“There is a bit of a shift in what people, especially younger people, are choosing to invest in, but that’s not to say putting money into houses has gone from awesome to evil.
“It’s more that people are aware of different asset classes and what they offer. Many younger investors still want to get a house but see investing in other assets as a way to get there.”
Olsen pointed out that while prices doubling every 10 years might be good for people who already owned homes, it was not encouraging for people who didn’t and wanted to buy one.