The long and short of it: SpaceX may be first cab off the rank for a new generation of IPOs

Thursday, 4 June 2026

Greg Boland is a consultant with investment and trading platform Moomoo.

ANALYSIS: For years, SpaceX has occupied a unique place in financial markets. It has been one of the world's most valuable private companies, discussed endlessly by investors but unavailable to most of them. That changes on June 12, when Elon Musk's space and communications giant is expected to make its long-awaited public market debut in what could become the largest IPO in history.

With a valuation reportedly approaching US$2 trillion, SpaceX would immediately rank among the most valuable companies on the planet. That number alone is enough to generate headlines, but it also raises a fascinating question. What exactly are investors being asked to buy?

The obvious answer is rockets.

After all, SpaceX built its reputation launching satellites into orbit, ferrying astronauts to the International Space Station and pursuing Musk's long-standing ambition of making humanity a multi-planetary species. For many people, the company remains synonymous with spectacular rocket launches and ambitious visions of Mars colonisation.

Yet the deeper one looks into the publicly available information surrounding the company, the clearer it becomes that this is no longer primarily a story about rockets.

Instead, it is increasingly a story about infrastructure.

The image most people associate with SpaceX is a rocket lifting off from a launch pad. Rockets are exciting. They capture attention, generate headlines and provide dramatic visuals. But history suggests investors do not award trillion-dollar valuations simply because a company builds impressive technology. The businesses that command the highest valuations tend to be those that become embedded in the daily functioning of the economy, generating recurring revenue and creating competitive advantages that are difficult to replicate.

That is where Starlink enters the picture.

What began as a satellite internet project has quietly evolved into one of the world's largest communications networks. With more than 10 million subscribers globally, Starlink is providing connectivity to rural communities, remote regions, airlines, shipping operators and businesses that traditional telecommunications infrastructure often struggles to reach. For millions of users, it is no longer an experiment. It is a service they rely on every day.

That distinction matters because it changes the investment story completely.

A launch business generates revenue project by project. A communications platform generates recurring monthly revenue from millions of customers. One is transactional. The other is scalable. One depends on winning the next contract. The other builds a growing base of recurring cash flow.

In many respects, Starlink looks less like a space business and more like a global telecommunications company that happens to operate from orbit.

Yet even that may not fully explain the extraordinary valuation investors appear willing to assign to SpaceX.

The real clue may lie in artificial intelligence.

One of the more interesting aspects of the publicly available information is the extent to which AI appears to have become central to the company's long-term ambitions.

SpaceX has reportedly been investing heavily in AI infrastructure and compute capability, while management's estimates of future market opportunities are increasingly tied to the growth of artificial intelligence rather than space exploration alone.

That is a significant shift.

For much of the past two years, investors have rewarded almost anything connected to AI. Nvidia became the standout example, transforming from a semiconductor company into one of the most valuable businesses in history as demand for AI computing exploded. Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet have all committed enormous sums to AI infrastructure, betting that the technology will reshape entire industries over the coming decade.

SpaceX appears to be making a similar argument.

The company is not simply positioning itself as a launch provider or a satellite operator. It is increasingly presenting itself as part of the infrastructure layer that may underpin the next generation of AI systems, communications networks and digital services.

Whether that vision ultimately proves correct remains to be seen. Yet it helps explain why investors are discussing SpaceX in the same breath as some of the world's leading technology companies rather than comparing it solely to traditional aerospace firms.

Of course, there are risks.

Valuations approaching US$2 trillion leave very little room for disappointment. Investors are effectively paying today for growth that may not fully materialise for many years. The company remains heavily reliant on continued technological execution, regulatory approvals, government relationships and the leadership of Elon Musk himself. Musk will hold 85% of voting power and 42% of shares in a listed SpaceX.

Government contracts and strategic partnerships have played an important role in the company's rise, particularly through relationships with defence agencies and space programmes. Those relationships provide stability and credibility, but they also create exposure to political and regulatory change. Likewise, Musk's leadership has been central to SpaceX's success, yet any company so closely associated with a single individual inevitably carries key-person risk.

None of this means the investment case is flawed.

It simply means investors are buying a vision as much as a business.

History offers plenty of examples where extraordinary businesses failed to become extraordinary investments because expectations became too optimistic. The challenge for investors is determining whether the future opportunities being discussed today are already reflected in the valuation.

Yet perhaps the most important aspect of the SpaceX listing has less to do with SpaceX itself and more to do with what may follow.

For much of the past decade, some of the world's most influential technology companies have remained private for longer than previous generations. Investors have repeatedly wondered when the next wave of transformative businesses would finally become accessible through public markets.

SpaceX may provide the answer.

Behind it sits a growing list of highly anticipated candidates. OpenAI is perhaps the most obvious example. Anthropic is another. Both companies are now central players in the global AI race, and both are frequently mentioned whenever discussions turn to future IPO candidates. Neither has announced plans to list, but if SpaceX successfully navigates public markets and attracts strong investor demand, it could create a roadmap for others to follow.

In that sense, June 12 may represent more than the debut of a single company.

It may mark the beginning of a new chapter for public markets, one in which investors are once again given access to the next generation of transformative technology businesses before their growth stories are largely complete.

For New Zealand investors, that is perhaps the most important takeaway. The significance of this IPO extends well beyond opening-day trading or short-term market excitement. It may provide an early indication of how global investors are thinking about artificial intelligence, infrastructure and long-term growth opportunities.

The rockets will dominate the headlines. They always do.

But the real story may be something far less dramatic and far more important: the growing convergence of communications infrastructure, artificial intelligence and capital markets.

SpaceX may be the first cab off the rank. It is unlikely to be the last.