Not if but when: Hamilton set to overtake Wellington

Tuesday, 5 November 2024

Hamilton City’s growth will see it overtake Wellington City in terms of population, according to both Stats NZ and Waikato University.

How long it’ll take depends on who you ask and you can measure it in years, elections, or Rugby world cups.

But Hamilton City will eventually be home to more people than Wellington City - likely in somewhere between 24 or 34 years according to Statistics NZ and Waikato University.

The Waikato Times gazed into a crystal ball regarding the future projections for Hamilton City’s growth in the wake of estimates from Stats NZ that places Hamilton as the fastest growing among New Zealand cities at a rate of 3.2% (5900) compared to 2023, surpassing Auckland’s 2.5% (44,600) and Tauranga’s 1.6% (2600), whom Hamilton took the crown from the previous year.

That Stats NZ data for estimated population as of June 30 this year put Hamilton City’s population at 192,000, compared to Wellington City’s 215,300.

So how long before the Tron takes over the capital?

According to Stats NZ projections, that will be 2048, or put another way, six Rugby World Cups and eight general elections time.

Stats NZ projections reveal Hamilton City will overtake Wellington City for population by 2048.

That’s when, according to their data, Hamilton City will be home to 240,600 people - against Wellington City’s 237,300.

According to Waikato University’s Dr Moana Rarere, demographer and population expert at their Te Ngira Institute for Population Research, it will be 2058 - 8.5 Rugby World Cups or 11.3 elections time - for the Tron to top Wellington.

“Based on the latest projections this is what we can expect to see,” she said.

While the timelines differ, there is general consensus as to the reasons.

“Strong population growth driven by internal migration. That’s driving a lot of the change,” Rarere said.

She cited a number of pull factors acting in Hamilton City’s favour, including the Waikato Expressway and geographical features.

Rabobank chief executive Todd Charteris said the shift from Wellington to Hamilton had placed them ‘exactly where we need to be’.

“That [the expressway] had a major influence, easier to commute and the location as well. Lots of room for us to expand too.”

She also said Hamilton’s location as part of the economic ‘Golden Triangle’ of Auckland, Hamilton and Tauranga was an attractive feature.

An expanding population doesn’t come without its own issues, however.

“The biggest is infrastructure, making sure that keeps up,” she said.

Rarere said pressure would also be seen across health services, schools and housing, predicting more high-density housing in the region as the population numbers rise.

Geographical factors were also cited by Hamilton Mayor Paula Southgate, though she stressed she was “not looking at it as a competition”.

“We have a while to go until we catch up to Wellington’s population but it’s always a possibility, given our current growth and our capacity to grow further,” she said.

“Whereas Wellington is constrained, in terms of its geography.”

Southgate was less demure on the question of whether Hamilton needed to join the ranks of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch as New Zealand’s major cities.

“Absolutely,” she said.

Hamilton Mayor Paula Southgate said Hamilton ‘absolutely’ should be ranked among the top cities in New Zealand.

“Hamilton has been named once again as the fastest growing metro city in New Zealand, with our population forecast to rise to over 240,000 by 2043.

“I’d argue that we’re already a main centre and we just need the title,” she said.

“We have a diverse and resilient economy, and we are strategically located in the middle of the golden triangle and north island, making us a significant logistics and technology hub. We’re also the metro centre for the highly productive and beautiful Waikato region.”

Southgate also said an increased population base would provide “the potential for more housing, new business opportunities, and a larger population base to share future costs to maintain our city”.

“But it also presents huge challenges,” she said.

“It’s not just about population size, it’s also about quality of life. Hamilton is a vibrant city with so much to offer, but we must support our expanding economy, build much needed new homes and continue to find sustainable ways to fund our growth and invest smartly to enhance liveability for our residents.”

But what about some of the people, and businesses, who have voted with their feet and made the jump from Wellington to Hamilton?

According to Rabobank NZ chief Todd Charteris - who made the move to the Tron in 2021 - they are “exactly where we need to be”.

The Wellington Company co-director Ian Cassels said it was a ‘no-brainer’ for them to invest in Hamilton, which he described as a ‘fantastic place’.

He told the Waikato Times they made the move in the wake of a strategic review, and while Christchurch was also considered, the Tron came out on top.

He said their focus on agri business was one of the key drivers.

“It didn’t make a lot of business sense to remain in Wellington,” he said.

“There’s certainly no farmers.”

He described Hamilton, given its place in Waikato, as “a heartland of New Zealand agri and dairy”.

“It’s been great for our business.”

He also cited the proximity to Auckland and the Bay of Plenty as pull factors.

“Hamilton is going great guns,” he said.

Another business figure dipping his toe into Hamilton waters is top Wellington property developer, and The Wellington Company co-director Ian Cassels.

Cassels has already acquired the Inland Revenue building in central Hamilton, and said he’s keen to be part of the city’s revitalisation.

“I’m not surprised by Hamilton’s strong population growth, it’s a fantastic place. The liveability, the council’s vision for the central city, the schooling. . . it’s a no-brainer really,” he said.