‘Turbulent time’ at the petrol pump as industry, consumers react to volatile fuel prices

Wednesday, 11 March 2026

Waikato businesses and consumers are shrugging off volatile fuel prices - for now.

A barrel of Brent crude spiked to US$117 - the highest levels since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 - on Monday before diving on Tuesday morning (NZT) to about US$85 per barrel. Prices later recovered to US$90 a barrel.

The volatility follows suggestions from US President Donald Trump that US operations against Iran could soon draw to a close with Trump saying the war was “very complete, pretty much” and ahead of schedule.

Plumber Ramon Finlay, who was moving to Australia to pursue engineering, told the Waikato Times he had not yet felt the squeeze of rising petrol prices.

Asked whether he was worried about the cost of fuel over the ditch, he replied “I think it’ll be the same - I think it’s something thats going to happen everywhere”.

He said from what he’d seen, Australia typically experienced a “sudden spike” in prices before quickly returning to normal.

“My concern here [in New Zealand]…I know it will increase but not to the extremes of Australia - but it won't go back down.”

Finlay said he typically went to Waitomo or Mobil to fuel up and usually spent $120 filling up his work van.

“I wouldn't go anywhere else. The price is just way too high.”

Huntly resident Garry Cox said he didn’t worry about the cost of petrol, though he typically refuelled when he was in Hamilton once a week.

“It's 30c dearer in Huntly than it is here, so when I'm in Hamilton I always fill up.”

Otherwise, he said, “if you need it you need it and there’s others that are paying more than what we’re paying”.

Waitomo Group CEO Simon Parham said it was a “turbulent time” for Kiwis fuelling up, with 15 to 20% extra demand at Waitomo’s fuel pumps in the past week.

“In my career, this is probably the shortest and sharpest increase that we've seen over the course of a week and I think what we're seeing is that geopolitical risk getting priced into the market.”

Some full-service providers had already hit $3/L for petrol prices, he said, with the potential for prices to increase by another 20c to 30c/L for petrol and 10c to 20c/L for diesel.

“Unfortunately, here in New Zealand, we're at the end of the supply chain, and so we see that flow into our pump prices.”

With oil prices fluctuating as the market reacted to conflict in the Middle East, fuel providers were having to take “every day as it comes”.

Once the Strait of Hormuz - a critical chokepoint for the world’s oil supply - was open, fuel prices would begin to fall, Parham said.

“As soon as there's surety about…when [the war is] going to cease, then I think we will see product prices drop quite rapidly.”

“There'll be a little bit of catch up, but I think the longer term impact should be mitigated - it's just about opening up the strait and getting the product from source to refinery, and that's what's most important.”

Transport lobby group, Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand CEO Don Kalasih said the impact on trucking firms would vary.

Many had pricing mechanisms built into their contracts to allow for the volatility of fuel costs, however others did not have that option available to them, he said.

“In a low margin gain you've got to pass those costs on, otherwise your financial viability is really going to be at risk.”

Kalasih encouraged consumers to remain calm, saying there was sufficient fuel already in the country or in transit to last a number of weeks.

“If they go out panic buying that just gives fuel companies a good excuse to put the price up.”

Waikato Chamber of Commerce chief executive Don Good said local businesses were waiting to see what turbulent fuel costs meant for them.

“They are concerned and at some stage will start to pass on prices where they can where they have to, but it will be measured because they equally don't want to lose business to a competitor who holds their price.”

He said while businesses and consumers shouldn’t expect price volatility to reduce for some months, it did not mean prices would go “sky high”.

“If fuel companies start to price gouge, the Commerce Commission will act, and no doubt the government will also act to ensure our current economic recovery remains on track.”

“World oil supply will balance with demand, and if so, prices will stabilise.”

Asked how rising fuel prices would affect economic recovery in the Waikato, Good said the region was in a good position with dairy, meat, wool, and kiwifruit industries performing well.

“Our farming sector continues to give us a base on which to rebuild our economy and we've got to be thankful for that.”