Fuel costs tipped to fall after US-Iran peace deal, Waikato businesses welcome relief

Monday, 15 June 2026

Relief at the petrol pump could arrive within weeks following a peace deal between the United States and Iran, but fuel suppliers warn a return to pre-war prices may not come until 2027.

Fuel suppliers, truckies and farmers across the Waikato are welcoming an anticipated drop in fuel prices after the agreement which is expected to end the Middle East conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In a social media post, US president Donald Trump confirmed a peace deal had been reached, adding he had authorised an immediate end to the naval blockade of Iranian ports.

“Congratulations to all,” he wrote. “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”

Waitomo Group chief executive Simon Parham told the Waikato Times there were already signs that the market was reacting positively to the deal, and as long as the Strait of Hormuz opened road users should start feeling relief at the pump in coming weeks.

The price of Brent crude oil fell more than four percent to below US$84 a barrel on Monday morning, hitting a two-month low.

However, Parham warned a return to pre-war fuel supply and prices wasn’t likely until next year.

Global fuel inventories had been drawn down during the conflict to help control prices, and rebuilding strategic reserves would take time even after shipping routes reopened.

“We'd be looking at 2027 before we go back to pre-war flows of crude and refined product.”

Asked if fuel would return to pre-war prices, he replied he was hopeful they would but that would also take time.

“The build of strategic reserves will keep that price higher for a little bit longer because there’s demand out there to fill up the stocks,” he explained.

“A lot of the heavy lifting will be done in three months, but then to gradually get back to where we were pre-war, that's going to be a longer runway.”

Everyone had been affected by high fuel prices, Parham said, which had trickled down to transport and food costs.

“The sooner it comes off, I think the better off we are as a country as well.”

Federated Farmers Waikato president Chris Woolerton was also expecting fuel prices to come down now a peace deal had been reached, though he believed fertiliser costs would remain elevated.

He said urea production facilities in the region had been damaged during the conflict, which he expected would keep fertiliser prices high for some time. Urea is a nitrogen-rich compound used by farmers to maximise pasture and crop growth.

Despite the challenges, strong dairy and meat prices helped cushion the blow for many farming businesses.

“We've been insulated by our prices…but what it's meant is that the money's not been able to go back into the community like we want it to be - it's gone into fuel and into feed.”

Farmers were hoping the agreement would help ease geopolitical tensions and restore confidence across global markets, he said.

“You would expect things to calm down, but what's the new normal is going to be the question.”

Hamilton-based trucking company OTT Haulage Ltd director Lance Middleton said he would welcome a potential drop to diesel prices.

The cost of filling his truck had doubled during the peak of the crisis, rising from about $600 to $1200 for a full tank. A trip from Hamilton down to Wellington, which he could manage on 3/4 of a tank, cost about $800 in fuel.

“With road users [charges] on top of it as well, that isn't cheap…the truckies have had a double whammy.”

While larger transport operators with contracts were often able to pass increased costs directly on to customers, smaller operators such as his business were forced to absorb some of the increases, he said.

Middleton was hopeful lower fuel prices would encourage customers to resume delayed transport jobs.

“It'll be a lot easier to find work, I think,” he said. “But I'm not counting my chickens yet anyway until it happens.”

Still, he remained optimistic.

'If it came down within 10 days, I'd be jumping for joy.'