El Niño is here - so what does it mean for the Waikato?

Friday, 3 July 2026

Waikato farmers are bracing for the onset of what could be years of El Niño climate conditions, with scientists predicting droughts and a drop in on-farm productivity.

Earlier this week, Earth Sciences New Zealand confirmed El Niño conditions were present in the tropical Pacific and were expected to strongly influence New Zealand’s weather into 2027.

El Niño has historically brought more westerly winds to New Zealand, with drier than usual conditions in northern and eastern areas, and wetter than usual conditions in parts of the west and lower South Island.

Professor Anita Wreford, an applied economist at Lincoln University, said El Niño had typically led to droughts in eastern parts of the country, with the scale of impact depending on how long dry conditions lasted and how widespread they became.

The Waikato economy is strongly tied to dairy, livestock, processing, transport and rural services, meaning pressure on pasture growth, feed availability, water access or farm costs could flow through the wider regional economy, she said.

“Drought conditions negatively affect agricultural production, often requiring supplementary feed to be purchased, the culling of stock and potential tension between different users of water,” Wreford said.

Hauraki-Coromandel Federated Farmers President Rod Craw said farmers were taking the El Niño forecast seriously, but did not need to make drastic decisions before the spring picture became clearer.

“At the moment we're not getting too carried away with putting too much messaging out until we’re moving into spring,” he said.

“Later in the spring, once calving gets out of the way, then we'll be assessing what the feed cover levels are, and what supplements are able to be made before people have to make any harsh decisions.”

He said the organisation did not want to “chuck some scaremongering out there” and prompt farmers to react too early.

For Waikato and Coromandel farmers, the key would be how well pasture and supplementary feed supplies held up before conditions dried further.

“If we get a good spring before it dries up, we can get a lot of supplements in, wrapped up or in pits or whatever, and if we can get good crops on the ground and good strike rates, then happy days, we should be a lot easier to manage.”

Craw said planning was already under way for stock and feed management.

“A lot of pre-planning has already started,” he said.

“But again, we don't want to tell people to go and do anything drastic that's going to potentially reduce their income until we know what we are actually going to be dealing with.”

He said many farmers were already coping with limited winter rain.

“We're going into it dry already,” he said.

“Everyone's got good feed covers because it has been dry and we're growing a lot of grass, but everyone's saying the same. We haven't had a lot of rain for winter so far.”

If spring also turned dry, the pressure could rise quickly.

“We could end up with a spring dry which is when we will hit the panic button pretty bloody quick.”

Federated Farmers Waikato region president Chris Woolerton said farmers were aware of the El Niño forecast, but were treating it as part of usual seasonal planning rather than a cause for panic.

“To be honest, that's the million dollar question we have every summer,” Woolerton said.

“But you never really know because - it's the weather.”

He said Waikato farmers routinely planned for dry conditions, while accepting forecasts were not certain.

“We plan for the dry, but it’s not clear cut, and it’s early days,” he said.

“We’ve still got a little while before we need to do our crops and our plans, but everybody who is farming, we all look at the weather. That’s our main focus.”

He said the current approach was to stay prepared and adjust as the season developed.

“As we go through the season, we’ll plant accordingly,” he said.