Why Winston Peters won’t play kingmaker to the left in 2026

Sunday, 21 June 2026

Vernon Small is a former journalist and Labour Government advisor.

OPINION: It’s become a political touchstone that whatever NZ First leader Winston Peters says about post-election deal making, and who he will go with, should be taken with a grain or two of salt.

The evidence for scepticism is strong.

In the past, words to the effect before an election of “I won’t return this government to power” have been contorted after polling day to mean “it’s not the same government because I am now part of it”. A pledge not to take the baubles of office can be squared with accepting Cabinet seats because they are meaningful, not mere trifles.

For good measure any questioner might get whacked with a Peters-ism; that any moron who knows anything about the political process can see that.

This fancy semantic foot-work of old – and even as an octogenarian he is still capable of it - has kept the scepticism alive in this term, even as he has used some of his strongest and least equivocal language to reject Labour and make clear how toxic he considers the Greens and Te Pāti Māori to be.

Despite the regular – and increasing - political “noise” of internal coalition ructions, his ruling out of Labour has become increasingly unambiguous over the two and a half years of this term. It started with ruling the party out while Chris Hipkins was leader. Now, with a bit of historical mining and mild revisionism it has become much stronger, suggesting he will – and already has – ruled out backing Labour after the November 7 election.

Yes, it is tempting to resort to the cliché that principled pre-election statements can be usurped by post-election pragmatism. That “in the interests of the country … with the numbers we have been dealt …”

And the targets of his pre-election attacks can sometimes be misread or can be something of a smokescreen. Rhetorical evisceration of National, say, can look like an overt signal he rejects that party and wants to gut its vote. But it has more likely meant that he is trying to glean votes from Labour and reassure its soft vote that at heart he opposes National. And vice versa.

OK, you would never want to advise voters against constant vigilance and scepticism, but this time around it feels different. And the conditions and context are very different.

For a start when he backed Ardern and Labour in 2017, though they were not the biggest party, his supporters, while still conservative, were relatively sympathetic and looking for an economic reset.

This time around the cohorts of co-governance rejecters, covid conspiracists and anti-vaxxers have rallied to Peters’ black and white colours. So, his base is perhaps more conservative than at any point in the past. And recent candidate selections, including Christian conservative former National MP Alfred Ngaro and Hobson’s Pledge spokesman and former Conservative Party leader Elliot Ikilei, have reinforced that.

His voters would not just be disappointed or even angry if he put Hipkins into power at the expense of a centre-right government, they would politically disembowel his party. Many of the previous Act and National voters who have impelled NZ First to its current high polling levels would be gone at a stroke.

NZ First’s polling rise, combined with PM Christopher Luxon’s low popularity and National’s weakness – including relative to Labour – implies a bigger share of the power and Cabinet seats for NZ First next time (and in comparison with anything he might get on the Left where the Greens rival his support levels).

If Peters’ harbours hope of one more feather in his well-worn cap – being prime minister – National is the runaway favourite.

As an aside, former NZ First MP Tracey Martin has pointed out that the NZ First website is becoming more royal blue than Peter’s normal black and white livery.

Then there are international lessons to be learned.

In Europe and elsewhere conservative, nationalist and anti-immigration parties are not just thriving but threatening to displace their rivals and become the dominant centre-right party.

Reform led by Nigel Farage in the UK is polling at 25-30% and has held the lead in every major poll this year. Meanwhile support for Labour and the Conservatives hovers around 20% on a good day, with 15% for the Greens and slightly less for the Liberal-Democrats. In a first-past-the-post system with a deeply unpopular incumbent PM, that could throw up any number of odd results, but the trend is unmistakable.

In Australia, while Labor is on track to win after preferences are counted, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is leading the primary vote and up to 10 points ahead of the Liberal-Nationals.

Pull all those strands together and it is obvious NZ First would be ill-advised to maintain its bob-each-way centrism of old, even if it could.

Which leaves an obvious vacancy.

What’s missing from the virtually neck-and-neck race between the Left and Right blocs is a viable centrist party that could usurp Peters’ old king- and queen-maker title and negotiate viably with either side.

It’s a big “if” whether the Opportunity Party, currently polling a little under 4%, could take that role if it breaches the 5% threshold and wins seats.

Any analysis of its policy platform suggests it is far more left-leaning reformist- social liberal than conservative.

For 2026, at least, a vacancy remains and with no sign Peters wants to fill it.

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