Final election results live updates: Key electorate seats and at-risk MPs as special votes due
One of National’s highest-ranking MPs - and one tipped to become the next Speaker - is at risk of not getting back into Parliament based on the final vote count revealed today.
The final results, to be unveiled at 2pm, will reveal the news many have been waiting for - whether National and Act will need the support of NZ First to form a government.
But the political fortunes of half a dozen candidates in seats with tight margins on election night will also be revealed, which could also likely impact the fortunes of list MPs elected in National, Labour and the Greens.
STORY CONTINUES AFTER THE LIVE BLOG
Incoming Govt looks unlikely to have any Pasifika MPs
Royce
With special votes all counted up, the new Government looks like it will not have a single person of Pacific heritage among its ranks.
National’s Angee Nicholas, who won West Auckland’s Te Atatū electorate on election night, has lost the seat after special votes tipped back in long-time Labour MP Phil Twyford’s favour.
Nicholas’ position had always been in the air, with only 30 votes between her and Twyford before special votes were counted.
The Te Atatū electorate has long been a Labour stronghold and Twyford took to Facebook after the special votes were counted this afternoon.
Read more here:
Hamish Fletcher
We’re at the business end of negotiations to form the next government - and not before time.
The three negotiating partners have pulled two tricks on the public. The first is that despite statements to the contrary, the three parties have been negotiating fairly regularly since the election nearly three weeks ago.
The second was that the promised post-official count clarity from Luxon has decidedly not materialised.
The final result now public, Luxon hasn’t budged an inch from the opaque “doing things differently” line he’s been running since polling day.
Hamish Fletcher
Peeni Henare is pushing for a recount after losing his seat by just four votes.
National MP Mark Mitchell wins by more votes than former Labour PM Jacinda Ardern
Andrew Laxon
National MP Mark Mitchell held his Whangaparāoa electoral seat, which he won for the first time in the 2020 election, by the largest margin across the country.
Mitchell had previously won the Rodney electorate since the 2011 election.
Mitchell received 30,742 votes and his nearest rival, Labour candidate Estefania Muller Pallarès, received 7,366 votes.
“I've been receiving very excited text messages saying that it was bigger than Jacinda Ardern's [Mt Albert seat win] in 2020,” Mitchell said.
Ardern did have a larger percentile share of the Mt Albert electorate vote in the 2020 election than Mitchell did in 2023.
But Ardern had 21,246 votes more than her nearest rival, National’s Melissa Lee, and Mitchell had 23,376 more votes than Pallarès.
Mitchell is the National spokesperson for police, corrections, counter terrorism and the Serious Fraud Office.
He was the Minister of Defence in 2017 for the National Government.
The Whangaparāoa MP said he had to juggle his responsibilities as police spokesperson on the National campaign trail with his on-the-ground electorate campaigning.
“There was a very strong law and order campaign that I was part of and I think that I had some tough issues to deal with inside my electorate which I had to deliver on during the course of the term,” Mitchell said.
“I had a very strong local team and I think those things combined definitely helped me without a doubt achieve very strong support in my own electorate.
“I had responsibilities in my portfolio to get around the country and campaign. But yes, every spare minute I had I was campaigning in my electorate.”
However Mitchel would not be drawn on whether he wanted to be the new police minister in the incoming National-led Government.
“Whatever Chris [Luxon] wants me to do to support our new incoming government, I will do”.
On the Campaign podcast - bonus episode
Andrew Laxon
Listen to this special bonus episode of On the Campaign as we run through the winners and losers of the special votes, and why our new Prime Minister is unlikely to be thrilled by the results.
Green co-leader Marama Davidson's message for National: "Just try and come for the Treaty"
Andrew Laxon
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson said her party's best-ever election result validated the positive campaign it ran.
She was thrilled to welcome Kahurangi Carter as the party's 15th MP through an increased party vote, saying she "screamed and almost fell off my chair" when she found out Carter had made it.
It added to strong electorate wins in Auckland Central, Wellington Central and Rongotai which she believed made the party's success even more pronounced.
"We blitzed them," Davidson said of the electorates.
Davidson said she had contacted the leaders of Te Pāti Māori to congratulate them on winning six of the seven Māori electorates - also the party's best-ever result.
Acknowledging Labour won the party vote in all seven Māori electorates, Davidson said that put Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori in a good position to advocate for Māori from Opposition.
"Just try and come for the Treaty, just try," Davidson said in a message to the incoming National-led Government.
She believed National needing NZ First to form a government would make National's job harder.
It was also her understanding that the next government wouldn't have any MPs of Pasifika heritage.
With Carter's inclusion, half of the Greens' caucus was either Māori or Pasifika.
"It's shocking, it goes to the priorities of those political parties," Davidson said of the absence of Pasifika representation.
"But it also means [with] Teanau Tuiono and Efeso Collins [the party's two Pasifika MPs], we will have the strength of our whole caucus behind them."
Phil Twyford 'relieved but happy' to hold Te Atatu for Labour
Andrew Laxon
Labour's Phil Twyford told the Herald he was "relieved but happy" after the final results gave Te Atatū back to him after the preliminary count had it going to National.
"I want to congratulate Angee Nicholas who got a great result," Twyford said.
She [Nicholas] ran a great campaign and she deserves credit for that. But it's a reminder that actually, politics is not just about politicians, it's about the public, it's about the voters, the communities who elect us and, you know, a result like this - it's a big drama for the politicians involved."
Taking to social media earlier, Twyford described the contest against Nicholas as "respectful and good-natured".
"Te Atatū stays red," he said.
The Herald has approached Nicholas for comment.
Peters v Seymour: A history of political insults
Andrew Laxon
Stand by for an interesting three years.
Labour's Peeni Henare eyes recount after four-vote loss in Tāmaki Makaurau
Andrew Laxon
Labour’s Peeni Henare said he was digesting and reflecting on the final election results that saw him lose the Tāmaki Makaurau electorate by just four votes to Te Pāti Māori’s Takutai Tarsh Kemp.
He had spoken to party leadership, he said, and Labour leader Chris Hipkins has already indicated he would support a recount in the seat, given the slim margin.
Henare has not responded to media queries, but in a social media video said he didn’t want to get into those issues and would let the “process take its course”.
Henare, who had held the seat since 2014, said it had been the “greatest honour and privilege, truly humbling to be the representative”.
He said he felt he ran a solid campaign despite a “pretty short runway” before campaigning started.
He said there was “much more mahi to do” for Tāmaki Makaurau and whānau Māori across the country.
“You will hear more from me sometime pretty soon.”
Kemp told the Herald she was “humbled and overwhelmed” about the result, which she put down to Māori getting behind the movement of Te Pāti Māori.
“At the end of the day, our people heard the call. They believed, we gave them hope, proud to be Māori and our people turned out to vote.”
Kemp said being out and about and present during the campaign was “huge for us”.
“They voted for their mokopuna they voted for their whakapapa, they voted for an Aotearoa hou.”
On the prospect of a recount, Kemp said she would deal with that if it came to it.
“At the end of the day a win is a win. We're here and you know, I always want to acknowledge Peeni for all the mahi that he has done for our people in his years of service.”
Labour’s Kelvin Davis loses Te Tai Tokerau but vows to stay on as a list MP
Andrew Laxon
Labour’s deputy leader Kelvin Davis has conceded to Te Pāti Māori’s Mariameno Kapa-Kingi in Te Tai Tokerau.
Davis had held the seat since 2014. His 487-vote lead on election night was flipped in the final count, with Kapa-Kingi getting a 517-vote majority.
“I have called Mariameno to congratulate her on the win and wish her all the best in the role,” Davis said in a statement.
“It has been a privilege to serve and advocate for the people of Te Tai Tokerau and I will continue to do that as a list MP.“
My focus now will be on making sure the Labour Party is built into a strong opposition party so that we can hold the incoming government to account.”
National's Nelson candidate supports recount
Andrew Laxon
National's Nelson candidate Blair Cameron led Labour's Rachel Boyack in the electorate by 54 votes after October 14.
Following the release of special votes, he has found himself trailing by 29 - the third-closest margin after Mt Albert.
Luxon has indicated National could support recounts in Mt Albert and Nelson.
Cameron said he too would support a recount taking place.
"I think it would be fair to the people of Nelson to do that because obviously it's so close."
He said he had been confident and optimistic that his lead in the electorate would hold but acknowledged how tight the margin was.
"It was always going to be very, very close and the Labour candidate had a big majority last time and I'm very proud of the efforts of me and the team."
The election result is now official - so what happens next?
Andrew Laxon
Former press gallery reporter Neil Reid answers your questions
What if parties did not need to win 5 per cent to enter Parliament?
Andrew Laxon
Political scientist Graeme Edgeler has run the numbers - National, Act and NZ First would still just have a majority with 63 seats
National's Melissa Lee supports Mt Albert recount after 20 vote loss to Helen White
Andrew Laxon
National's Mt Albert candidate Melissa Lee, who trails Labour's Helen White by just 20 votes, says she supports a recount being undertaken.
"I think it's only fair for the people in the Mt Albert electorate and the people who voted for me to double-confirm the vote."
She acknowledged the result was "extremely close" and "pretty awesome", given she lost to former PM Jacinda Ardern by more than 21,000 votes in 2020.
While she was back in Parliament on the list regardless of the electorate result, Lee said she would like to become the local MP and become more involved in the community.
Andrew Laxon
Vera Alves
'We have to put our differences aside': NZ First's Winston Peters speaks about final election results
Vera Alves
NZ First leader Winston Peters has spoken to Sean Plunket on the Platform following the release of the final election results.
Asked what is on the agenda, Peters told the Platform he had go to ahead in confidence and treat negotiations with urgency and deal with them as fast as they can.
Peters said he couldn't, however, be "foolish about it".
On Act and David Seymour, Peters told the Platform that he didn't rule the party out during the campaign.
"What can we agree on... we can't all get what we want, we have to get a sound much much better Government underway."
Peters said Luxon spoke to him at two minutes past 2 o'clock today.
Luxon said he spoke to both Peters and Seymour after 2pm today but would not say who he spoke to first.
Asked if NZ First and Act together could give Peters more "backbone", Peters said:
"What we have foisted upon us [was] unelected un-campaigned on [change] from the other side, just rammed down our throats," he said of the last Government's policies.
"We have to put our differences aside - that is the nature of politics," Peters told the Platform.
Peters said the most useful thing was for National, Act and NZ First to all get in the room together as opposed to separate conversations.
Peters thought negotiations could happen much more quickly than some people may think.
"This is not my first negotiation, I'm only negotiating with one side, so to speak, not two and that's why we can expedite this," Peters said.
Peters said it might be easier if negotiations were conducted between chiefs of staff.
"Frankly if our chiefs of staff got in a room. It’s a matter of logistics. We’ve still got to keep doing our other work. I’ve said to Chris Luxon… look, the key thing is that your main man speaks to my main person so that every hour things are happening, then we can expedite this," Peters said.
"But if we do this personally, with all the travel, then this won’t work," he said.
Vera Alves
'We don't want to take oodles of time' - Luxon
Vera Alves
"We all want to make sure it [forming a government] happens as quickly as it possibly can," Luxon told the media.
"We don't want this to string out. We don't want to take oodles of time."
He also said there were questions to be asked about the Electoral Commission.
"I do think three weeks to count special votes is too long," he said.
Luxon believes that there are questions to be asked about whether daily votes should be released and if the commission should take over local government elections to "build muscle memory".
He was unimpressed on some of the outcomes out of the public service. All three parties were aligned on this, he said.
The last government had taken on too much and didn't deliver anything, Luxon said.
National had unified the party and held the government to account.
'It is what it is': Luxon reacts to Māori Party's election result
Vera Alves
National leader Christopher Luxon said Nicola Willis did an exceptionally good job in Ohariu in what was a "red seat".
On the Māori Party gaining six seats he said "it is what it is".
It would create an overhang in Parliament.
National would aim to build its presence in the Māori seats.
He expected all parties to stand up and advocate for what they believed in.
"I can't guarantee a time," he said on coalition talks.
"We want to move quickly, we understand the country wants certainty. But we need to get good agreements.
"We are moving at this with good pace. We're trying to have quality conversations."
Luxon can't guarantee forming a Govt before the Apec conference in 10 days time
Vera Alves
Luxon said he would "really like to go" to Apec, on November 12-13, but could not guarantee it due to his responsibilities forming a government.
"It's only today we've had a clear result," he said.
"We've delivered a result by the NZ people, it's only been confirmed today and we're working as quickly as possible."
'I've only got one job at the moment': Luxon is a 'maybe' on attending Apec
Vera Alves
"I think we've done an exceptionally good job," Luxon said.
"We will now crack on with the clarity we've got. We are working as hard as we possibly can.
"I can't guarantee a time. There is complexity and arrangements we have to work through with each party."
On Apec he said he would "really like to go" but could not guarantee it due to his responsibilities forming a government.
"It's only today we've had a clear result," he said.
"We've delivered a result by the NZ people, it's only been confirmed today and we're working as quickly as possible.
"I've only got one job at the moment and that is to build stable and effective government."
Luxon said he would work through the weekend on the negotiations.
Luxon says National 'working constructively' with Act and NZ First
Vera Alves
Luxon says there are tensions between the parties but they are all working constructively.
"We are working constructively with both parties. We are going to come together and form a strong stable government," he said.
"Each party has a different set of concerns. We are the major party."
"I'm just not going to get into that with you," he said when asked for details of the agreements he hoped to secure.
Christopher Luxon on when we can expect a new government: 'I can't give you a deadline'
Vera Alves
Christopher Luxon thanked National supporters and volunteers, along with those candidates who had missed out, some in some very close vote counts.
"I can't give you a deadline," he said regarding the announcement of the new government.
But he said there was goodwill on all sides of the discussions.
"This has been the most likely and expected outcome."
He would continue to keep negotiations confidential.
Mt Albert and Nelson were both still very close.
We've been working really hard on those battle ground seats.
"We said the day after [the election] that we usually lose one or two in special votes. That's what's proven to be the case."
"We've had a great series of conversations and we look forward to furthering those."
"We're in good constructive communications," he said.
"I'm very confident having spoken to both leaders that everyone understands what's happening here."
'Now we can get cracking' - National's Christopher Luxon
Vera Alves
Christopher Luxon said it was good to have clarity. The results were largely as expected, he said.
"Now we can get cracking."
He was focused on delivering strong and stable government.
National leader Christopher Luxon is about to address the media
Vera Alves
We will provide live updates of Luxon's press conference as well.
Act party leader David Seymour and Brooke van Velden speak to media
Vera Alves
Seymour and van Velden are holding a press conference after the release of the special votes results today.
What is an overhang? And why does Port Waikato matter?
Andrew Laxon
An overhang happens when a party wins more electorate seats than their share of the vote would normally give them. Today's final election results show Te Pāti Māori won six electorates but it got 3.1 per cent of the vote, which would normally entitle the party to only four seats in Parliament. So an extra two seats have to be added, which increases the total number of seats in Parliament from 120 to 122.
This election has thrown in another complication. ACT's Port Waikato candidate, Neil Christensen, died during the camapign, forcing a by-election, which creates the need for another extra seat. So the new Parliament will have 123 MPs, which means a government needs 62 seats for a majority. That's why National and Act - with a combined 59 seats - will need to work with NZ First leader Winston Peters.
'Voters are king' - David Seymour
Vera Alves
"Ultimately the voters have asked three parties to work together and the voters are king," the Act party leader said.
Vera Alves
"What matters is we deliver on the changes people voted for and we are committed to doing that," Seymour said.
Act Party leader David Seymour hopes government will be formed next week
Vera Alves
Speaking to the media after the release of special votes, Seymour said he hopes the government could be finalised in less than a week.
Act Party leader David Seymour addressing media now
Vera Alves
David Seymour thanked voters and his constituents in Epsom.
Seymour said he wanted to ensure the division that had gripped the country under the Labour government now ended.
"People want to see a government that can roll up its sleeves and start to make the changes they have voted for," he said.
Vera Alves
Hipkins said Labour would be a "formidable opposition".
Relief at last for broadcaster Patrick Gower
Vera Alves
Willie Jackson says Labour is obliged to ask for a recount in Tāmaki Makaurau
Vera Alves
Labour Māori strategist Willie Jackson congratulated Te Pāti Māori and its president, John Tamihere.
Jackson said while they were disappointed to lose Tāmaki Makaurau and Te Tai Tokerau, they can at least take consolation that Māori did not abandon Labour.
He said the party is obliged to ask for a recount in Tāmaki Makaurau, given the margin is so tight, but it was unlikely they would ask for a recount in Te Tai Tokerau.
"Again, I congratulate Te Pāti Māori on their election strategy and big ups to John Tamihere."
Vera Alves
Hipkins says he "genuinely" wishes Luxon well on forming a new government.
'Bit of fight left in me': Hipkins reaffirms commitment to Labour leadership
Vera Alves
On his future as leader of the party, Hipkins said he still had a "bit of fight left in me" and was "absolutely committed to the Labour Party".
He said he had not yet had the chance to seek feedback from colleagues if they would continue to support him.
He said he would continue to "do right" by the Labour Party.
Hipkins says Labour lost support in Auckland with Covid lockdowns
Vera Alves
On safe Labour seats being flipped or held by slim margins, Hipkins said he felt Labour had to reflect in particular on its loss of support in Auckland.
He said their own research they lost a lot of support at the end of the Auckland Covid lockdown and had not regained it.
Te Pāti Māori president John Tamihere says he is waiting for Winston Peters to thank him
Vera Alves
Te Pāti Māori president John Tamihere said by the party winning six seats, they have gifted NZ First Party leader Winston Peters "the driver's seat."
"We'll be waiting for Winston to ring us to thank us."
Tamihere said in the last Parliament, the Government had two pebbles in its shoes.
"This time, they'll have six."
Vera Alves
Hipkins said he felt Labour had picked up some momentum over the campaign, as evidenced by on the day versus advance voting results. But the special votes appeared to reflect the advance voting.
Vera Alves
Kelvin Davis has not yet indicated he intends to retire, as he had previously hinted at if he lost his electorate seat.
Hipkins supports a recount for Peeni Henare's seat
Vera Alves
Hipkins said he had a brief conversation with Peeni Henare, who lost by four votes, and he fully supported him if he wanted to call for a recount given the slim margin.
He said on the party vote there was strong support from Māori voters.
Vera Alves
Hipkins said there was some "clear vote-splitting" in the Māori electorates, with voters opting to give Labour their party vote and Te Pāti Māori their electorate vote.
Chris Hipkins speaks to media after the release of full election results
Vera Alves
'However long it takes': Hipkins commits to caretaker role until govt is formed
Vera Alves
Hipkins said it was clear a National, Act and NZ First government would be required.
Labour will continue as caretaker government until that is formed, "however long it takes", he added.
Vera Alves
Speaking to the media after special votes were released, Hipkins said he acknowledged the MPs who would not be returning and thanked them for their contributions.
Vera Alves
Hipkins said he wanted to acknowledge those who won and lost their seats, but thought it was likely there there would be a recount in some seats.
Recounts likely in some electorates, Chris Hipkins says
Vera Alves
Labour leader Chris Hipkins says he believes recounts are likely in some electorate seats.
Explore the final results with our interactive graphics
Vera Alves
Explore the outcome with the Herald’s interactive election graphics and charts which will be updated shortly after the results are released.
Our interactive map of New Zealand electorates shows which have flipped from one party to another. The map can also be filtered to rank electorates by tightness and party by first selecting the “grid” option then the various filters at the bottom of the map.
Labour's Rachel Boyack delighted to return to Parliament
Vera Alves
Labour's Rachel Boyack says she is delighted to have been returned to Parliament as Nelson's MP.
“It is the privilege of my life to be the MP for Nelson and I'm looking forward to continuing my work as a strong advocate for the Nelson region.”
“I note that with a small margin there is the possibility of my opponent seeking a recount, and I will make further comment once there is a certainty around a potential recount.”
Belich has not made it back on Labour's list on the final result, but Andrew Little has already said he will not take up his place so Belich will come in.
Vera Alves
Labour deputy leader Kelvin Davis could be set to retire
Vera Alves
Labour’s deputy leader could be about to retire after Te Pāti Māori claimed a record six Māori electorates, beating two senior Labour Māori MPs following the counting of special votes.
Vera Alves
'Most successful election result in the Te Pāti Māori’s history'
Vera Alves
Green Party co-leader James Shaw is pretty happy with the result for the Greens
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
The final results see National losing two seats compared to on election night on October 14 - and with it the slim one-seat majority it held with Act.
The return of the kingmaker
Vera Alves
National and Act will need the support of NZ First to form the next government, based on the final election results released today.
Final results released at 2pm
Natasha Gordon
After a three-week wait since election night, the final result will be released at 2pm today. Explore the outcome with the Herald’s interactive election graphics and charts which will be updated shortly after the results are released.
Our interactive map of New Zealand electorates shows which have flipped from one party to another. The map can also be filtered to rank electorates by tightness and party by first selecting the “grid” option then the various filters at the bottom of the map.
What are special votes? Your essential guide ahead of the official results
Natasha Gordon
Could the special votes change the balance of power?
Anything’s possible, but the special votes are unlikely to substantially change the make-up of the government from election night. However, they could leave National and Act with fewer seats than they had on election night and relying on Winston Peters to form a government.
Read more here:
Former politician predicts government will be formed fast
Natasha Gordon
Former politician and United Future leader Peter Dunne told First Up he predicted talks between National, ACT and New Zealand First would be focused on the type of government National wanted to form.
He said it could look like a formal coalition between all three parties, or National and ACT with NZ First as a confidence and supply partner.
"My feeling is despite their coyness, once the results are announced it will be a relatively short period of time of only a few days before these arrangements are finalised and a government is formed."
He was intrigued to see the dynamic between ACT and NZ First.
"If they can strike a good working relationship then I think it makes it much easier for National to govern in a three-party arrangement. If those two are at daggers drawn from day one, it's going to be very problematic."
The challenge will be maintaining all the parties' reputations, he said.
"There's a real management issue of some prickly personalities and not just personalities - each party will be wanting to ensure that its credibility is maintained through this whole process so the two smaller parties aren't seen as just sort of lapdogs and that the National Party is not seen as giving anything away for the purposes of power."
- RNZ
Faster vote count possible, but at a cost - electoral law expert
Natasha Gordon
Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has expressed his frustration with the count, saying three weeks is too long.
Electoral law expert Graeme Edgeler told Morning Report parts of the process could be faster, but the timeframe would still be lengthy.
"It couldn't be done in three days, I don't think. Two weeks might be possible, it would just be potentially a question of funding. How much do you want to pay the Electoral Commission to run elections? And the amount of funding we've given at the moment, it's reasonable for them to take three weeks.
"They could probably do it a little quicker, but I don't think they can do it that much quicker."
- RNZ
National Party within reach of shocking win; Christopher Luxon’s shift on supermarkets - Audrey Young
Natasha Gordon
Premium opinion
Suddenly, National thinks the new Grocery Commissioner should be given a chance.
Read more here:
Will National and Act need NZ First? Special votes to be revealed
Natasha Gordon
Whether National and Act will need the support of New Zealand First to form a Government will soon be known as the Electoral Commission prepares to publish the final vote count today.
There are about seven electorate seats with a decent chance of flipping after the final votes have been counted.
Along with close electorate seats some of the list MPs on the cusp will also be watching nervously.
Read more here:
Winnie or won't he?
Natasha Gordon
Natasha Gordon
The action we need now from a new government - Brett O’Riley
Natasha Gordon
Premium opinion
With luck, we will know the shape of the new Government later today, when the results of special votes are released.
We need ministers to get down to work quickly and deliver what voters supported. And that is change.
Read more here:
The Listener: The National MPs we can expect to see more of when the government is announced - Danyl McLauchlan
Natasha Gordon
We still don’t have a new government. There’s cautious optimism in National that maybe this will happen next week? Perhaps? Depending on the breaks?
Read more here:
Matthew Hooton on Christopher Luxon’s best choice
Vera Alves
"In building his government, Luxon is like a materials engineer needing to balance rigidity and strength," writes Matthew Hooton.
Vera Alves
Steven Joyce expects National to lose two seats today
Vera Alves
Former cabinet minister Steven Joyce told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking that he expects National to lose two seats.
“The advanced vote was as high as 41-42 per cent for National, but on the day, it was 36-37 per cent,” he said.
“Let’s say the special largely reflects what happened on the day, they may lose a couple of seats.
“However, if the specials include a lot of advanced voting, then it could be better for National.”
Joyce said he expects the international votes to break for the party as there was a lot of anger about New Zealanders being shut out of the country during the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions.
When asked if he thinks a government could be in place by next week, Joyce said that will largely depend on Winston.
“Seymour will be enthusiastic to get started, but Winston won’t mind a few days either way,” he said.
Joyce said Peters will want to be seen as constructive.
“At this stage, he doesn’t have too many cards to play.
“His other alternative is to sit on the cross benches and vote against the government on a regular basis, which will be tool in which the public will get more and more frustrated with him.”
He said people shouldn’t bet the house on having a government formed next week.
'Prickly personalities': Christopher Luxon's people management skills about to be tested
Vera Alves
Peter Dunne says incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's people management skills are about to be tested, as he deals with the two "prickly personalities" of Winston Peters and David Seymour in government.
Speaking to RNZ’s First Up this morning, the former United Future leader said talks between the trio had probably started by finding broad areas of potential agreement around which National, Act and NZ First could structure a government, whether as a three-way coalition or with NZ First for confidence and supply.
Dunne believed it would only be a short time before the new Government was formed. If Act and NZ First had a good working relationship it would be much easier for National to govern, but “if those two [have] daggers drawn from day one, it’s going to be very problematic”. Asked how hard it was to work with Peters,
Dunne said: “You’ve got to treat [Peters] with the respect that he thinks he’s entitled to". “He’s got a very prickly sense of his own self-worth, if you like, and if that is in any way threatened or perceived to be threatened things turn to custard pretty quickly.”
Each party would want to ensure its credibility was maintained through the process, so Act and NZ First were not seen as "lapdogs" and National did not look like it was giving everything away to get power.
Audrey Young: What Act and NZ First are looking for in coalition talks with National
Vera Alves
On the basis of experience, there are bound to be a few surprises when the governing agreements emerge, writes the Herald's senior political correspondent Audrey Young.
Special votes announced today
Vera Alves
Good morning, Aotearoa - happy Friday! Big day today as results of special votes are announced at 2pm.
Stay with us as we bring you live updates, the latest news, reaction and analysis on this decisive day for New Zealand.
STORY CONTINUES
On election night, October 14, the preliminary results delivered a one-seat majority to National and Act, acquiring 50 and 11 seats respectively.
At 61 seats together they made up just over half of the 121 seats in Parliament (there is currently a one-seat overhang due to Te Pāti Māori winning more electorate seats than their party vote share).
The reason for the uncertainty about that result holding is that a record estimated 567,000 people cast special votes - or just over 20 per cent of all votes.
Based on a Herald analysis of special votes since 1999, all of the parties that have gained seats in Parliament following the declaration of the official results have been left-leaning. National has lost at least one seat in every election bar one since 1999.
Election law expert Graeme Edgeler previously told the Herald this was because many of those needing to update their details were people who had changed house recently, who were typically younger and often left-leaning.
In 2017, the final vote count saw National’s initial seat allocation reduced by two while Labour and the Greens gained one seat each.
In 2020, once again, special votes leaned left and National had two fewer seats than the election night result predicted.
The left/right distribution of votes on election night in 2017 and 2023 is very similar, meaning it could be indicative of the final results.
This would see National drop three seats with one each going to Labour and the Green Party.
Because Te Pāti Māori typically does well in the special votes count, it is likely to see a small increase in its party vote share, meaning the overhang it currently holds would drop away. An overhang occurs when a party wins more electorate seats than it would through the party vote.
National’s Gerry Brownlee is currently on track to return to Parliament on the party list, but if National holds all of its electorate seats and loses at least two list seats - as has occurred in the past two elections - the veteran MP, who has been mooted as the potential next Speaker, could be pushed out.
This unexpected outcome is due to National performing exceptionally well in the electorates - winning 45, based on the preliminary results. This means, provided they don’t lose any on the special votes, with 50 seats overall they only have space for five list MPs.
At the top of the list of MPs would be deputy leader Nicola Willis followed by Paul Goldsmith.
A potential drop of three seats for National, and if their electorates all held as currently, could mean current MPs Melissa Lee, Brownlee and Andrew Bayly don’t make it back in. A drop of just two seats would see Lee return but for Brownlee, a drop of one is needed, as occurred in 2014.
Bayly is likely to enter Parliament regardless as a favourite to win the Port Waikato by-election. This would see Parliament get an overhang of one seat.
Steven Joyce expects National to lose two seats today
Former cabinet minister Steven Joyce told Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking that he expects National to lose two seats.
”The advanced vote was as high as 41-42 per cent for National but, on the day, it was 36-37 per cent,” he said.
”Let’s say the special largely reflects what happened on the day, they may lose a couple of seats.
”However, if the specials include a lot of advanced voting, then it could be better for National.”
Joyce said he expects the international votes to break for the party as there was a lot of anger about New Zealanders being shut out of the country.
When asked if he thinks a government could be in place by next week, Joyce said that will largely depend on Winston.
”Seymour will be enthusiastic to get started, but Winston won’t mind a few days either way,” he said
”At this stage, he doesn’t have too many cards to play.”
His other alternative is to sit on the cross benches and vote against the government on a regular basis, which will be tool in which the public will get more and more frustrated with him.”
Luxon’s people management skills about to be tested - Dunne
Peter Dunne says incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s people-management skills are about to be tested, as he deals with the two “prickly personalities” of Peters and Seymour in government.
Speaking to RNZ’s First Up this morning, the former United Future leader said talks between the trio had probably started by finding broad areas of potential agreement around which National, Act and NZ First could structure a government, whether as a three-way coalition or with NZ First for confidence and supply.
Dunne believed it would only be a short time before the new government was formed.
If Act and NZ First had a good working relationship it would be much easier for National to govern, but “if those two [have] daggers drawn from day one, it’s going to be very problematic”.
Asked how hard it was to work with Peters, Dunne said: “You’ve got to treat [Peters] with the respect that he thinks he’s entitled to.
”He’s got a very prickly sense of his own self-worth, if you like, and if that is in any way threatened or perceived to be threatened things turn to custard pretty quickly.”
Each party would want to ensure its credibility was maintained through the process, so Act and NZ First were not seen as “lapdogs” and National did not look like it was giving everything away to get power.
Te Pāti Māori currently has 2.6 per cent of the party vote, which equates to three seats, yet it won four electorates. Based on past results it is likely to see that party vote share increase to about 3 per cent, which would give it four seats.
The small bump to Labour, provided there was no change in the electorates, would see Vanushi Walters return to Parliament, with Glen Bennett ranked just above, currently looking likely to return after Andrew Little’s retirement. The potential increase for the Green Party would see Christchurch-based Kahurangi Carter enter Parliament.
The electorate seats to watch
This shift in special vote results can also see changes in the electorate seats.
There are about seven electorate seats with a decent chance of flipping after the final votes have been counted.
The closest is in the typically Labour stronghold Te Atatū, where National’s Angee Nicholas is ahead of Labour’s Phil Twyford by just 31 votes. Labour has only lost the Auckland seat once since it was formed in 1978 and Twyford has held the seat since 2011.
The second-closest electorate race is in Nelson, where National’s Cameron Blair is ahead of Labour’s Rachel Boyack by 54 votes. Boyack claimed the seat in 2020 but prior to that, it had been held by former National MP Nick Smith since 1996.
In Banks Peninsula, which covers parts of southern Christchurch and rural areas and towns, National’s Vanessa Weenink holds an 83-seat lead over Labour incumbent Tracey McLellan. The seat, which changed to Port Hills between 2008 and 2020, has only been held once by National. Former Labour MP Ruth Dyson held both forms of the electorate from 1999 until 2020 when she retired.
Another seat that could flip is Mt Albert, another Labour stronghold that MP Helen White currently holds by just 106 votes over National’s Melissa Lee. The electorate has elected only Labour Party MPs since it was first contested at the 1946 election.
It was vacated after former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern stepped down this year. Ardern won it in 2020 with 72 per cent of the vote and a more than 21,000 vote lead over Lee. Ardern also won a large majority in 2017. Lee would likely re-enter Parliament regardless based on her high list ranking.
Another close seat, but less likely to shift, is New Lynn, where new National candidate Paulo Garcia holds a 483-vote lead over Labour incumbent Deborah Russell.
New Lynn is yet another electorate previously regarded as safe for Labour, held by the party - with a few boundary variations - ever since it was formed at the 1963 election.
Russell has a high enough list ranking to be elected even if she loses the seat.
There are also two interesting battles taking place in the Māori electorates.
In Te Tai Tokerau Labour’s Kelvin Davis holds a 487-vote lead over Te Pāti Māori’s Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. Davis has held that seat since 2014.
There is a similiarly-close contest in Tāmaki Makaurau, where Labour’s Peeni Henare is ahead of Te Pāti Māori’s Takutai Tarsh Kemp by 495 votes.
Henare has also held that seat since 2014.
Other close seats to watch include Rongotai, West Coast-Tasman and Hutt South.