Formula 1: Why the next month is pivotal in deciding Liam Lawson’s future – Opinion

And breathe.

After a gruelling schedule of six races in the past eight weeks – all through the night for Kiwi fans (and journalists), Formula One has reached its summer break.

For Liam Lawson, eighth place in the Hungarian Grand Prix is another result to write home about.

Over the course of 70 laps, only world championship leader Kimi Antonelli (four) gained more positions than Lawson’s three, at a time where all 11 teams begin to think about their plans for 2027.

And with plenty of speculation and commentary over where his future lies, Lawson continues to punch well above his weight.

Here’s what we learned in Hungary:

Best of the rest

Having flirted with the title since Monaco, Lawson enters the summer break as Formula One’s official “best of the rest”.

Ninth in the drivers championship, one place ahead of Alpine’s Pierre Gasly, is a fine reward for Lawson’s first half of the season.

He’s already accrued more points, and more points finishes in the first 11 races this year than he did in the entirety of 2025.

On top of that, he’s scored the bulk of his team’s points, in the crucial fight for fifth in the constructors’ championship – and the nine-figure sum it brings.

At the start of the season, Lawson and Arvid Lindblad were marked by many as the weakest driver pairing on the grid. Both, and Racing Bulls as a whole, have made a complete mockery of that tag.

On six occasions have Lawson and Lindblad secured a double-points finish, equalling the work put in by the Lawson-Isack Hadjar axis from 2025.

And with half the season still to go, you’d get long odds betting against them both bettering that mark before the end of the year.

Now, with four weeks off, the challenge will be on for Racing Bulls to consolidate that status when the season resumes at Zandvoort.

Lawson v Lindblad

For all the teammate battles going on at the front of the field, Lawson v Lindblad has quickly become the grid’s must-watch affair.

After tangling in Austria, Silverstone and Belgium over the last month, the Racing Bulls duo showed no signs of their budding rivalry slowing down.

While Lindblad got the better of Lawson in Belgium, the Kiwi managed to give it back at the Hungaroring.

Despite qualifying two places down on his teammate, Lawson was able to get around Lindblad coming out of turn two and hold his position until his second pit-stop.

On a two-stop strategy, Lawson and Lindblad were reunited on track in the final 10 laps, with the instruction from the Kiwi’s race engineer, Alexandre Iliopoulos clear – race hard but clean.

That’s exactly what we saw, as this time Lawson claimed the on-track honours, while Lindblad came home 10th.

Motorsport is unique in the fact a driver’s biggest rival is his teammate. But rivalry doesn’t necessarily equate to ill-will.

And when considering the relationship the two Racing Bulls drivers share, expect these two to continue to push each other for the rest of 2026.

Silly season

Now that we’re officially on Formula One holiday, don’t be surprised to see some seismic changes in how next year’s grid looks.

Summer breaks of years gone by have seen all kinds of hirings, firings, driver moves and general team changes. This year could well follow suit.

From Carlos Sainz reportedly wanting out of Williams, to Esteban Ocon’s reported precarious position at Haas, don’t be surprised if we see a domino effect triggered over the next few weeks.

Where, then, does that leave Lawson? The reporting that the Kiwi will lose his seat to Bulgaria’s Nikola Tsolov – currently 20 points clear at the top of Formula Two – has not come from nowhere.

And even if Racing Bulls moved quickly to emphasise no decisions have been made for next year, the team has never come out and said: “Liam Lawson will definitely drive for us in 2027”.

That’s not entirely unexpected. The last two years have seen Red Bull and Racing Bulls as the last two to confirm their driver pairings, coming after season’s end and the final weekend respectively.

However, given Racing Bulls’ status as a pathway for drivers into Red Bull, questions will be asked about Lawson’s place in the former if his chances of moving up to the latter are truly done.

For Lawson’s part, though, he’s done more than enough to convince any team that needs a driver that he’s worth picking up.

Now, we wait.

Verstappen clock ticking

One potential route back to Red Bull, though, could also be finalised in the coming weeks.

It’s no secret that four-time world champion Max Verstappen’s contract with Red Bull contains an exit clause – widely understood to be that he can walk away at season’s end, if he sits outside the top two in the drivers’ championship at the summer break.

Now that we’re here, Verstappen is sixth, 60 points adrift, and effectively a free agent – if that’s what he wants.

Further complicating the matter, it’s understood that Verstappen doesn’t actually have to inform Red Bull of his intentions until October at the latest.

Verstappen’s longtime manager, Raymond Vermeulen, has emphasised that just because the clause is in his contract, there are no guarantees he’ll exercise it.

He had the same chance last year, albeit needing to be in the top three at the summer break and did not activate it.

Talk of moving to one of McLaren – who have two drivers on long-term contracts – or Mercedes has all but gone quiet. That effectively means that Verstappen can either stay at Red Bull or walk away from the sport altogether.

Should he leave, Red Bull’s identity would be drastically altered. The team would lose the biggest name in the sport, and arguably the best driver in Formula One history.

Whoever got the call to replace him – Lawson or otherwise – would have an unenviable task, if that’s the way it panned out.

Welcome back, Malaysia

While this season has been disrupted by losing the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian grands prix, the return of the Malaysian Grand Prix at the start of October is a welcome one.

The Sepang circuit is one of the best in the world, even if it hasn’t been used since 2017 – pre ‘Drive to Survive’ – and presents an entirely different challenge for drivers.

Like Singapore, the Asian climate presents hot and humid conditions for drivers to get to grips with, before the race even begins.

Unlike Singapore, though, Malaysia has traditionally been raced during the day, seeing track temperatures reach an uncomfortably high 60 degrees at its worst.

While Lawson has never raced there in Formula One, Two or Three, the Kiwi does boast a strong record at Sepang.

In 2018, when racing in the F3 Asian Championship, a 16-year-old Lawson claimed three pole positions, three race wins, and three fastest laps in what were his only three races of the season.

Yes, this year will be different given the step up into Formula One in the eight years that have followed.

However, as we’ve already seen in his career, the Kiwi has no issue stepping up to the next challenge.

Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.