Auckland 2038: The Superdiverse City

Monday, 7 January 2019

In 2038, Aucklanders' lives are expected to look a bit different.

Big, brash and bold, Auckland is a city in the fast lane. But how will it look in 20 years' time? Stuff asked the experts to gaze into their crystal balls to predict the super city of 2038. In the first of our five-part series, we look at the burgeoning population.

By 2038, Auckland has cemented its status as one of the world's 'super diverse' cities. It's a grand experiment that will require new levels of tolerance among its residents.

The Super City of the future will be more culturally diverse than ever before, with higher proportions of Asian, Pacific and Māori people than it had two decades previously.

It will be the only New Zealand city where European residents have fallen below 50 per cent of the population.

* Auckland 2038: The super city is starting to grow - upwards

* Auckland 2038: A new take on the traditional backyard

* Auckland 2038: A city on the move but not at the wheel**

The gulf between Auckland and the rest of the country in terms of demographics will also never have been wider. In the previous two decades, the city will have hosted 60 per cent of the country's growth.

In the Auckland of the future, suburbs that are dominated by a particular group have become more entrenched, such as Howick (mostly Asian) and Manurewa (mostly Pacific).

In places with a majority Asian population, there is an 'ethnic precinct' of Asian businesses, services and restaurants, much like parts of Mt Eden's Dominion Rd in 2018. The same goes for Pacific-dominated areas. Many parts of the city will have a distinct cultural flavour.

In 2013, Auckland had a majority European population of almost 60 per cent. In 2038, that number has fallen to 47 per cent. That's because other ethnic groups have lower median ages and higher fertility rates.

The face of Auckland 2038 has changed in the following ways, according to projections from Statistics New Zealand:

* More than a third of all Aucklanders are now Asian; up from a quarter in 2013.

* The city's population is almost 20 per cent Pacific, up from 15 per cent in 2013.

* The proportion of Māori living in Auckland has increased slightly to a quarter. The country's Māori population has increased to 20 per cent, from 16 per cent in 2013.

Two decades from now, the Asian group has overtaken the European group in the Whau, Puketapapa and Howick local board areas, to become the largest group.

The Pacific group has overtaken Europeans in the Manurewa local board area, and it remains the largest group in Mangere-Otahuhu.

Meanwhile, areas such as Maungakiekie-Tamaki and Papakura have a relatively even spread of the four major ethnic groups.

HOW IT WILL WORK

Massey University professor Paul Spoonley said it was the proportion of Asian residents that would make Auckland stand out from other diverse cities. Meanwhile, Auckland will be the only New Zealand city where the European group is a 'majority-minority'.

'We're anticipating about 36 per cent of Auckland's population in 2038 will be Asian,' Spoonley said. He cautioned the city could be even more diverse than the current data suggests, because Stats NZ's projections are based on the 2013 census and don't take into account recent immigration trends.

At the moment, around three quarters of Auckland's Asian population were born overseas, said Spoonley. But the number born in New Zealand will begin to grow, 'and those who are Auckland-born, I think will be very different culturally and socially from their immigrant parents'.

The largest Asian group would be Chinese, followed by Indian, Filipino and Korean.

Challenges might arise out of this new, hyper-diverse environment, the professor said.

'The New Zealand European population will age, but when you look at the 0-14 [year old] populations, more and more of them will be Māori, Pasifika or Asian, simply because they have higher fertility, or they have on going migration.

'So there's that great power dynamic that will be largely New Zealand European, but there will be a mix of Māori, Pasifika and Asian, who will be more dominant in the younger age groups.'

Spoonley said New Zealand research had shown tolerance and understanding between racial groups came through two things: having higher educational qualifications, and crucially, 'contact'.

'When you look at Auckland, the level of contact in the workplace or educational environment is actually quite high. And I think the education system is doing a great job in preparing people for this multicultural future. What worries me is that older Aucklanders might not have the same level of contact.'

Auckland's baby boomers might notice their children's and grandchildren's generations becoming more ethnically diverse, he said.

The formation of 'ethno-burbs,' or suburbs dominated by a particular ethnic group, is something Spoonley sees as inevitable. He said there was a tendency for new arrivals to a country - migrants who have been in New Zealand for about a decade - to cluster together.

'After that, you see that the children of migrants go to really ethnically diverse schools.'

A high concentration of Asian businesses and services, such as on Mt Eden's Dominion Road, will be evident elsewhere in the city.

Massey University professor Paul Spoonley said higher education and contact with other racial groups will help prepare Aucklanders for the city's multicultural future.

By 2038, Auckland will be even more culturally diverse, and near the top of the list of diverse cities in the world.

Probably the biggest factor behind migrants clustering in a particular area, Spoonley said, was the zoning for high-quality public schools.

'Where you see high-decile, high-performing schools, you'll see a focus of migrants in those areas.

'The other area of growth for new migrants is the urban fringe - for example Howick and Albany - where over half of the new housing stock is being sold to migrants.'

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