Auckland 2038: Jobs, but not as we know them

Tuesday, 8 January 2019

In 2038, Aucklanders' lives are expected to look a bit different.

Big, brash and bold, Auckland is a city in the fast lane. But how will it look in 20 years' time? Stuff asked the experts to gaze into their crystal balls to predict the super city of 2038. In the second of our five-part series, we look at the changing job market.

Auckland's downtown port in 2038 may look at first glance like the port of today - ships berth to unload and load, and then sail off again.

At second glance though, the port could be a metaphor for Auckland's economy in 20 years time, kind of similar but with more automation and possibly fewer and different jobs.

History reminds us how things change. In 1998, Auckland was making fridges and washing machines in East Tamaki, and new cars were being assembled by Nissan in Wiri.

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* Auckland 2038: A new take on the traditional backyard

* Auckland 2038: A city on the move but not at the wheel**

Twenty years on, iconic whiteware manufacturer Fisher and Paykel Appliances is Chinese-owned and no longer makes household products in Auckland.

Nissan in 1998 went the way of all other car assemblers in Auckland, and its former factory is now a distribution centre for vehicles fully-imported from overseas.

In Mt Wellington, 20 minutes up the road from the former car assembly plant, Rocket Lab now employs 250 people building lightweight, high-tech rockets carrying small payloads into space.

So what does Auckland's economy, currently 38 per cent of the country's gross domestic product, look like in another 20-year leap?

Let's look at the port. Despite political debate about moving it, the outgoing chief executive of the Employers and Manufacturers Association Kim Campbell expects it will still be there in 2038.

'With all the desire in the world there isn't another place for it - but it'll be automated, you'll hire technicians instead of crane drivers,' he said.

The path to fully automated ports is well established overseas and, in Auckland, the first steps are due at the end of 2019 or early 2020.

The future for Ports of Auckland looks much like today - but only at first glance

Eventually, at the container terminals, robotic cranes and carriers will load, unload and stack containers.

Trucks will still do much of the transporting but may be hydrogen-fuelled, quiet and emission free, allowing less intrusive 24-hour cartage.

The expectation that at some point, 30-50 years away, the port won't cope with rising cargo volumes is a moot point.

The once rule of thumb that cargo volumes would rise at twice the rate of GDP growth is now scaled back, and could fall further, as many goods become smaller.

'Future of Work' is a burgeoning global industry of specialists, consultants and politicians trying to foresee how technology and automation will reshape the world we live, learn and work in.

VW Beetles leaving the Otahuhu assembly line in the 1960's, vehicles were built in Auckland until 1998.

Trying to distil the hypotheses into a picture of Auckland's economy in 2038 is not so easy.

'We can pick the direction of a lot of stuff, it's actually how it manifests itself and plays out that's harder,' said Nick Hill, the chief executive of the council's economic development agency ATEED.

'There'll still be the same number of jobs but the mix will be completely different and the biggest challenge we face is the growing disparity of incomes,' said Hill, citing a scenario laid out at a Future of Work gathering.

While past changes have affected some specific jobs, such as those in manufacturing, some see the future changes as different.

'It's not necessarily the speed of change but the pervasiveness of it and the extent to which it could impact many sectors - most could be impacted in at least in one way,' said Patrick McVeigh, head of People and Places for consultants Martin Jenkins,

'We are actually seeing technologies that can change all sectors and all jobs - anything routine can be automated,' said McVeigh, pointing to sectors such as accountancy, law and business services, where Auckland leads the country.

All those spoken to by Stuff agree on one thing - the challenge will be considerable for those already struggling to find a place in the workforce.

This is a key issue for Auckland's poorer southern suburbs, where currently 9300 - or 16.1 per cent of 15-24 years - are NEETs - neither in education, employment or training, at a time of near record-low unemployment.

'That's my obsession,' said Stuart Middleton, an educationalist who champions a new way of equipping the young for work.

Middleton has pioneered the Tertiary High School (THS) model at Manukau Institute of Technology.

The 80-student school takes Year 10 students at risk of dropping out and blends NCEA subjects with an increasing emphasis on tertiary trade or skill training, connecting with jobs.

Rocket Lab's 250 Auckland-based staff build rockets in Mt Wellington.

'I believe every single person born in New Zealand can aspire to having skills, and a future, and being able to provide a family-sustaining income.

'Twenty years' time is going to look like this but probably a bit worse - a big stretch between those who have got work and those who haven't,' he said.

'We've got to get kids out of school before they drop out.

'We've got to get them into programmes where there is mandated engagement, we don't focus on nice uniforms and frills, we focus on getting these kids skills, getting them into pathways, and getting them into jobs.'

A PWC study found New Zealand with fewer jobs at high risk of automation than many countries.

Middleton said the THS model works, and needs to be more aggressively rolled out nationwide.

The service sector dominates job creation in Auckland.

It is easy to picture a radically different Auckland economy in 20 years time, but McVeigh adds some caution.

'We tend to overestimate the short-term impacts and underestimate the long-term impacts of technological change,' he said.

Another sign that things might not change overnight, is that Auckland's latest efforts to reshape its economy into a higher-skills, higher-value export-focussed one, look very similar to the debate started by the ginger group Competitive Auckland nearly two decades ago.

Competitive Auckland was a business-led, multi-sector group that in 2001 determined the region's economic future lay in six export-focussed sectors: information technology, food and drink, international education, tourism, boat building and biotechnology.

Seventeen years on, ATEED's 'sectors of focus' are technology, food and drink, international education, tourism, construction, screen and creative, and commercial services.

ATEED's Nick Hill sees the creative sector as having untapped potential for south Auckland with its big Māori and Polynesian communities, and the still evolving idea of Te Papa Manukau.

'People are increasingly looking for authentic experiences, our very strong Polynesian culture, our Māori culture, the history, the stories of that, and industries you can develop around that - that is part of the future,' he said.

Te Papa Manukau, with associated cultural, craft and educational elements, would be well-established on an earmarked site on Hayman Park by 2038, if a business case being prepared to go to government, is given the green light.