'Brain drain is under way': Workforce shrinks as young people leave

Monday, 16 May 2022

It has been predicted that tens of thousands of people could leave over the next year.

If you’re under 30 and it feels like all your peers are booking plane tickets and heading to live overseas, you’re probably not wrong.

Data from Stats NZ shows New Zealand’s population grew 0.4% in the year to March 2022, reaching 5.13 million.

But annual net migration was negative, with 7300 more people leaving the country than coming in.

It was only the rate of natural increase that kept population growth positive, with 26,500 more people born than died in the year.

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But the working age population shrank 0.2% in the year, with a 3.1% reduction in the number of people in their 20s.

The number of 20 to 39-year-olds was down 0.7%, while the number aged 25 to 29 dropped 4%.

Former Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi announces new 'Green List', which intends to simplify migrants' applications and pathways to residence. (Video first published in May).

Infometrics economist Joel Glynn said a brain drain was under way.

It had previously been reported that Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment officials expected up to 125,000 Kiwis could leave the country in the next year as borders reopen and young people flow overseas.

But they said a number closer to 50,000 is more likely – about as high as permanent migration of New Zealand citizens was in the early 2010s

Kiwi citizens all but stopped moving overseas during the pandemic, with just 12,000 opting to in 2020, compared to 38,000 in 2019.

He said it was likely that migration would be negative until the end of the year.

He said while it was a noticeable shift in the short term, it was unlikely to be a long-term structural change in the make-up of New Zealand’s workforce.

Glynn said it was probably driven by the high cost of living, the cost of credit and the country’s relatively low wages.

It was a trend that was likely to continue for the next two or so years, he said.

Stats NZ population indicators manager Tehseen Islam said Covid-19 related travel and border restrictions, introduced in March 2020, disrupted travel and migration patterns.

“Migrant arrivals have dropped to levels seen in the mid-1980s and migrant departures have dropped to levels seen in the mid-1990s.”