Lotto by the numbers: The chances of being a winner

Thursday, 20 September 2018

Forty Kiwis took out Lotto First Division on Wednesday night - the most first division winners in a single draw in the game's 30-year-history.

With that many winners sharing the $1 million prize, they're only getting $25,000 each.

The winning numbers (3, 5, 7, 9, 11 and 13) were picked by people from all around the country.

Bizarrely, it meant the five people who won second division ($27,431) walked away with a bigger prize than 38 of those who won first division.

 **READ MORE:

* The Winner's Room: Behind the scenes at Lotto

* How an Australian economist hacked the lotto system

* 30 years of Lotto in NZ: Your chances of winning the big one**

Two of the lucky first division 40 struck it big - picking up a $2.5 million Powerball prize on top of the $25,000. 

The biggest-ever prize was a $44 million Powerball prize won by a couple from Hibiscus Coast in November 2016.

Must Be Won draws are the most popular, with the most-ever entries being for a Powerball Must Be Won draw in July 2016, with more than 2.7 million tickets sold. Around 500,000 tickets were entered into the draw on Wednesday.

Lotto says the number of tickets sold generally increases as the jackpot increases.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF WINNING?

The big prize in Lotto is Powerball. To hit this, you first have to win first division by having a line on your ticket match the six numbers - from one to 40 - drawn out before the bonus ball. Then you also have to get the winning Powerball number, which is between one and 10.

The odds of any one six-number line winning first division is about one in 3.8 million. That includes Wednesday's winning sequence, which Lotto says has not been drawn before.

The odds of getting the six-number line, plus the Powerball number, to win Powerball is about one in 38 million. Of course every line you play increases your chances, so the odds go back to about one in 3.8m for a $15 Power Dip with 10 lines of Lotto Powerball.

In 2016, Stuff pointed out that you have a better chance of giving birth to identical quadruplets (if you are pregnant), flipping a coin on heads 28 times in a row, drowning in your bath, being killed by a vending machine or being related to the Queen than scooping the jackpot.

Numbers 1, 18, 13, 7, 19 and 12 are the most drawn Lotto numbers, while 2 is the most frequently drawn Powerball number.

The balls are washed and weighed regularly so the popularity of some balls over others is almost certainly due to random chance.

The 'luckiest' store is Unichem Stortford Lodge in Hastings, with 45 winning first division tickets sold. 

However, the list of 'luckiest' stores doesn't say how many tickets those stores sold or how long they have been around.

A store that sells lots of tickets over a long period of time is likely to have many more first division winners than one that sells very few.

INCREASING YOUR WINNINGS

Despite these overwhelming odds there are times when it makes mathematical sense to buy a Lotto ticket.

That's when Powerball jackpots get so large the value of the prize pool is greater than the amount spent on tickets.

In these scenarios the 'expected value' of your ticket is positive, although your chances of actually winning Powerball are the same. 

Another trick to increase your chances of a bigger prize is to pick numbers that other people are less likely to select - although given many players get randomly generated numbers this might be a little tough to do. 

However, if you can, then you are less likely to have to share the prize if you strike it lucky.

BETTER ODDS

In early 2017, Lotto rolled out changes to the game. Division 7 was introduced, allowing players to match three numbers on a single line to win.

Former Lotto corporate communications general manager Emilia Mazur said Division 7 had increased chances of winning a prize to one in 30.

Previously, the best chance of getting a prize was one in 200.

Between the introduction of new games and August 2017 there had been an average of 300,000 extra winners per week or more than one million extra per month, Mazur said at the time.

In April last year, Lotto also created the ability to play Strike on its own, Powerball prizes were increased and the jackpot increased to a $50 million 'must be won'.

Lotto's last major change was in 2015 when playing mid-week began, essentially doubling the opportunities for people to have a go at winning.

Other big changes have included Strike's introduction in April 1993 and Powerball in February 2001.