Election 2020 at risk of being compromised due to census delays

Sunday, 16 December 2018

Statistics New Zealand may not release Census 2018 results until August 2019, and even then it might not be as robust as previous years. The delay has huge implications for decisions makers and funding considerations.

The next general election is at risk of being compromised due to Census 2018 delays.

The Electoral Commission has confirmed its necessary redraw of electoral boundaries for Election 2020 could be jeopardised by the delayed data.

Commission officials fronted a parliamentary select committee on Thursday, where National MP Nick Smith questioned the latest point the data could be received to ensure a robust election.

Individual responses to Census 2018 were lower than hoped, and the results might not come until August 2019.

'The part that makes me nervous, is that we've now seen the two announcements from [Stats NZ] of delays.'

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'Is there a point where we say, this data is not good enough?'

Electoral Commission chair Sir Hugh Williams QC said the population figures, which come as part of Stats NZ's initial data release, could come as late as September 2019.

'Anything later than that would really jeopardise the capacity for the Electoral Commission to do its work, assuming the general election was set for the third or fourth quarter of 2020.'

Documents released under the Official Information Act show Stats NZ has acknowledged the high risk of failing its statutory obligation to provide the data.

The commission is not the only organisation concerned about the delays and quality of census data.

Hutt Valley DHB strategy general manager Helene Carbonatto said continuing to use projections based on 2013 data 'may not give a good reflection of individual DHB populations'.

'We are concerned there is a low capture for the census and are unsure what the shortfall is for the Hutt Valley and the impact.

'We are concerned that our highest needs populations may have been under-counted.'

Canterbury DHB chief executive David Meates said accurate population projections were vital for planning and funding services.

'Given the major movements in population within the Canterbury region, it is desirable to gain an accurate and real view of the population that reflects where we are now, including deprivation, as quickly as possible.'

Stuff reported on Wednesday that Census 2018 information would not be available for Budget 2019, a Stats NZ spokesman saying the information was never intended to be.

National part finance spokeswoman Amy Adams said this appeared 'highly unusual'.

Stats NZ has further clarified, saying the Budget requires a population count generally released months after an initial release, due to further evaluations of census coverage.

Asked if this standard timeline would delay key population data until the second half of 2020 - and throw Budget 2020 into question - a spokesman said: 'Stats NZ is working through options to condense the release timetable of products from the 2018 Census'.

'This includes the use of 2018 Census results to update the base used for national and sub-national population estimates and projections.'