Māori electorate seat at risk due to Census 2018 debacle

Tuesday, 5 March 2019

Māori risk losing an electorate seat and more than 20 new iwi won't be properly counted due to problematic Census 2018 data.

Results from the beleaguered national survey, which failed to count one in 10 New Zealanders, have been repeatedly delayed, with a release date not known one year on from census day.

The population data is vital for Māori, and academics hold fears vulnerable communities and small iwi will be adversely affected.

Dr Tahu Kukutai and Donna Cormack, in a paper published on Thursday, said Māori census response rate would be well below 90 per cent, possibly as low as 80 or 70 per cent in the likes of Northland and the East Coast.

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Dr Tahu Kukutai, from the University of Waikato's National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, says the response rate of Māori may be as low as 80 or 70 per cent in some corners of New Zealand.

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Māori are less likely to be counted in the census than non-Māori, with a 6.1 per cent Māori under count in 2013 compared to that of 1.9 per cent for Europeans.

A change in the 'yes' or 'no' answer to a question of Māori descent, which could no longer be answered with 'don't know' in 2018, was expected to lead to fewer people reporting Māori descent.

That, combined with a higher number of Māori not being counted during the census and its follow-up, could shrink the number of Māori voters and the number of Māori electorates.

Of the 100-plus iwi and related groups counted by Stats NZ, more than 20 were first included in 2016-17. These new iwi groups have not previously been counted, and attempts to patch census results were 'unlikely to be a robust solution for addressing missing iwi information'.

University of Auckland statistician Andrew Sporle, also a founding member of Te Mana Rauranga - Māori data sovereignty network, said census data was particularly important for smaller iwi trying to do good with fewer resources.

'They are now short on one very key piece of information, which is the demographic of their population.

'There is a risk we could lose an electorate seat. The complicated part is going to be the shape of the electorates.'

Stats NZ census general manager Kathy Connolly said the Census 2018 data set had progressed significantly since November, and 2013 Census data and administrative data was improving the count for ethnicity and Māori descent.

'While we recognise that non-response to the census typically impacts some population groups more than others, we have developed new methods to offset the decline in responses.'

Māori, Pacific and other minority communities were targeted with strategies to raise participation during Census 2018, strategies being inspected by an ongoing independent review.

No information about the under count of Māori or any other group would be released until census data is published. An update on publication date will come in April.

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