365 days and still counting: Census 2018 results nowhere to be seen
Tuesday, 5 March 2019
Three hundred and sixty five days and still counting: Census 2018 results remain unknown as more details emerge of a 'shambolic' national survey.
Exactly one year on from the first online census day, which failed to count one in 10 New Zealanders, Statistics New Zealand remains tight-lipped about when the long-delayed results will be available - continuing to rely on a promised announcement in April.
Statistics Minister James Shaw is offering reassurances: The data will come, and it will be of use.
But academics keenly following the saga are gathering more information about how Census 2018 played out, and there's widespread concern the data will be both highly contested and of little use.
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* Jonathan Milne: Statistics NZ boss should be nervous**
Newly released information shows Stats NZ employed 1800 enumerators, or field staff, to knock on doors and uncover those who failed to complete Census 2018.
This was a substantial drop from the 7000 boots on the ground during Census 2013, though it's said far fewer enumerators were required due to the online survey eliminating many household visits.
The change in field staffing shaved $8 million from the cost of running the survey, which was projected to cost $121m.
Stats NZ has confirmed ongoing work to imputate the partial data - patching with birth, tax, health, and education records - is 'tracking well' but will now cost an additional $5m.
Independent economist Brian Easton said the cut back in enumerators was part of steady revelation showing the 'shambles' was bigger than previously known.
'There's a growing unrest … and in addition to the unrest we're slowly clarifying what the issues are.'
University of Auckland statistician Andrew Sporle said the 'fuzzy baseline' the census data will provide increased uncertainty in matters from the Government's wellbeing targets to the number of Māori electorates.
'It's a bit of a disaster, we don't know how bad, but we know it's a disaster.'
He said it appeared Stats NZ's follow through after the initial response, which was adequate, had faltered.
Shaw, who meets weekly with Government Statistician Liz MacPherson, remained confident in the department's work and said he was continually testing the handling of Census 2018.
'From what I can see, Stats is doing everything available to them to manage their way through this.'
Shaw said his operational independence from Stats NZ was statutorily defined, so he was not privy to much detail beyond what Stats NZ had said publicly.
'Everyone's aware that there may be some areas where the data quality might not be as good as in previous years. I can't speculate on what those will be, but they are working hard to make sure any gaps are being filled.'
He understood the data required for an electoral boundary redraw would be of the quality required by the Electoral Commission, and provided before the September deadline.
It would not be possible to run another census in 2021, as some had suggested, and discussions around funding and planning for the next in 2023 were yet to commence, he said.
Both MacPherson, who was overseas, and census general manager Kathy Connolly were unavailable for an interview.
An unattributed response to questions said Stats NZ was unwilling to provide any further information on the scope of census results and when it was expected to be released, referring to its planned April announcement.
'We expect to be able to release a wide range of products and services to meet many users' needs.'
A 'substantial proportion' of the estimated $5m extra spent above the $121 census budget would be paid through the organisation's own baseline.
The independent review into the handling of Census 2018, due July 2019, is 'continuing as planned' and will cover aspects such as the number of enumerators deployed.
The external data quality panel - made up of external academics and statisticians - will continue to meet regularly until the first release of census data.
National party statistics spokesperson Dr Jian Yang said Stats NZ had miscalculated the situation it was in, and Shaw needed to take responsibility for the widespread impact it would have.
'We are none the wiser about when we will see some data … The only definitive number to come out is that it has been 365 days since the census, so we have no information at all.'
Yang dismissed suggestions a lack of funding by the previous National Government was the origin of issues with Census 2018.