Potential cyclone on track to hit North Island will form a day sooner

Tuesday, 7 February 2023

Aucklanders continue to clean up after the storm at the end of January.

A potential cyclone that could bring the next lot of disastrous wet summer weather for the upper North Island is now forecast to form a day earlier.

MetService now believes a low over the Coral Sea has a high chance of turning into a cyclone on Wednesday, a day earlier than it forecast on Monday.

But, that doesn’t mean it will arrive in New Zealand any sooner.

“It’s still a case of waiting to see how it develops over the next few days,” MetService meteorologist Jake Law said.

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A tropical low in the Coral Sea is expected to develop into a cyclone in the next few days, and could be heading towards the upper North Island by late Sunday.

MetService is forecasting the cyclone to reach a category 3 or above strength, that could reach New Zealand on Monday.

It remains too early to forecast specifics around what level of rain, wind or temperatures it would bring, Law said.

The projected cyclone, to be named by the Australians, remains currently an area of low temperature south of the Solomon Islands.

It is slowly moving west as it intensifies.

Where it would exactly go from there was still a bit of a guess, Law said, but it would likely track southeast.

The system is expected track to the far south of New Caledonia, then possibly southeast down the Coral Sea and Tasman Sea towards the upper North Island late Sunday or early next week.

Auckland and the rest of the upper North Island will have a chance to clean up from the recent flooding and heavy rain this week as sunnier skies are forecast.

Showers are expected for Auckland on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday this week, but aren’t expected to be heavier than a “few” on Wednesday, MetService said.

Meanwhile, temperatures moving up the South Island have started to drop as the wind has changed to a southerly.

Invercargill, for example, reached 32C on Saturday, but is only projected to reach a high of 18 on Tuesday.

Christchurch reached 31C on Monday, but is set to reach only a high of 22C on Wednesday.

That will bring relief to those in the upper North Island towards the end of the week.