Red weather warnings to 'blanket' most of the North Island over the coming days
Sunday, 12 February 2023
Red heavy rain warnings are in place for Northland, Auckland (including Great Barrier Island), the Coromandel and Gisborne.
Red strong wind warnings are in place for Northland, Auckland (including Great Barrier Island) and the Coromandel.
An orange heavy rain warning is in place for Hawke’s Bay.
Orange strong wind warnings are in place for Hawke’s Bay and Wellington.
Most of the North Island will be under “some kind of warning” over the next few days as Cyclone Gabrielle hits Aotearoa, MetService is warning.
However, it remains unclear where and when the worst of the cyclone will hit.
MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said the red heavy rain and strong wind warnings show the “severity of the weather” that could affect most of the North Island over the coming days.
“Red is the highest level of warning we can give, to indicate only the most significant weather events,” she said on Sunday afternoon.
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Heavy rainfall could mean a “very high likelihood of significant flash flooding” and dangerous river conditions, which could result in land slips, disruptions to travel, road washouts and communities possibly cut off, she said.
Strong winds also have the “potential to cause widespread and significant damage,” Makgabutlane said.
This could include damage to power lines (potentially leading to power cuts), trees being uprooted, roofs being lifted off and dangerous flying debris.
Northland
From Sunday through to midnight on Monday, Northland will be under a red heavy rain warning. As much as 200-300mm of rain could fall during this time, with the bulk of that falling over the course of Monday.
“Northland could even see as much as 20-30mm of rain in an hour, which alone would be a lot, but added to a couple of days of rain will be significant,” Makgabutlane said.
The red strong wind warning will last longer, remaining in place until 9pm on Tuesday. Severe gales with gusts upwards of 130km/h are to be expected, with Cape Reinga already recording 140km/h gusts.
Auckland (including Great Barrier Island)
Auckland and Great Barrier Island are under red rain and wind warnings.
The red heavy rain warning will run until 4am on Tuesday, and the red strong wind warning will run until 9pm on Tuesday.
Between 150-200mm of rain can be expected in Auckland, but 200-250 mm of rain from the Whangaparāoa Peninsula northwards, with the heaviest rain likely on Monday.
Severe gales, with gusts reaching 120-130 kph, can be expected from Monday depending on Cyclone Gabrielle's track.
Coromandel
For the Coromandel, the length of both the rain and wind red watches are expected to finish at 9am on Tuesday.
As much as 300-400mm of rain could fall in the mountains, with 150-250mm of rain throughout the whole event elsewhere, Makgabutlane said.
“The thing to keep in mind with the Coromandel, however, is the recent heavy rain they’ve experienced, which will make the system all the more significant,” she said.
Gisborne
Gisborne is only under a red heavy rain warning north of Tolaga Bay and an orange strong wind warning throughout the region.
As Cyclone Gabrielle moves down New Zealand, Gisborne would see the bulk of their rainfall from 6am on Tuesday onwards. Between 300-450mm of rain can be expected in inland areas, and 200-250mm along the coast.
Hawke’s Bay
Hawke’s Bay is under an orange heavy rain warning and an orange strong wind warning.
The rain warning will be in place from 10am on Monday through to 10am on Tuesday, however MetService said that the warning could be upgraded to a red warning for inland areas.
250-250mm of rain can be expected in the ranges, with 100-150mm elsewhere.
Wellington
The lower North Island, including Wellington, is under an orange strong wind watch with the possibility of severe gusts of wind up to 120kph in the coming days. There is no rain watch or warning in place.
The South Island
As Cyclone Gabrielle tracks east and moves away from Aotearoa from Tuesday, there is the possibility of heavy rain across the South Island into the mid-week.
However, as Cyclone Gabrielle moved down the country, MetService would issue warnings and watches accordingly, Makgabutlane said.
Makgabutlane noted a particular “temperature contrast” between the North and South islands.
“The North Island is completely blanketed in clouds, with temperatures in the high teens and low twenties.
“But across the South Island temperatures are in the mid to high twenties,” she said.