National faces historically bad polling. Here’s what that means for the Government

Wednesday, 12 February 2025

David Seymour faced security intervention after attempting to drive a Land Rover up Parliament's steps as part of a charity stunt. Critics say it's another distraction amid mounting controversies.

ANALYSIS: We’re now 16 months into the sixth National Government. Normally around this time, governments enjoy bolstered support - but Christopher Luxon is getting no such luck.

All three of New Zealand’s major political polls show his coalition Government has less support than the Opposition. This is an unprecedented result at this stage of the MMP electoral cycle.

Averaged results from the most recent Talbot Mills, TVNZ Verian and Taxpayers Union Curia polls show that Luxon’s National Party is the party losing support.

It is five points down, dragging the coalition’s net support below that of the Opposition.

Meanwhile, Labour is up five points. The Opposition parties have risen seven points combined.

Unprecedented result

Christopher Luxon returned to the debating chamber on Tuesday, where he faced questions about his coalition.

It is unheard of, since MMP was introduced in the 1990s, to see a coalition Government lose support so early and so quickly.

National, today, sits with about 33% support - roughly on par with the Labour Party.

In every other instance where a new government has been voted in under MMP, its support has actually increased by the 16-month point.

Sixteen months after Helen Clark took over as prime minister, her Labour Party was up 10 points since the 1999 election. At this point during John Key’s tenure as prime minister, his National Party was up nine points. And in January 2019, Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was also up 10 points following the 2017 election.

John Key and Helen Clark both saw support rise during their first 16 months as prime ministers.

Luxon’s National Party is going the other way - and that is why this year’s early polling has sparked so much chatter in the halls of power.

National changes tack to get on track

Aware of the incoming turn in public support, Luxon started the year with a Cabinet reshuffle and a new marketing strategy. At every opportunity, he would talk about “growth”. If Luxon’s plans and policies do grow the economy, then yes - his polling should grow, too.

In the coalition, there appears to be hope that economic indicators should improve before the election date.

The Government is presiding over the highest unemployment rate since mid-pandemic. Inflation has fallen, but as a result, interest rates are high. Wage growth is subdued and therefore the impact of inflation is still being felt just as harshly.

Luxon, ACT’s David Seymour, National’s Nicola Willis and other senior coalition ministers all linked economic performance to polling. Luxon predicted this low support would be just a blip.

“But people can see, you know, we’re making some progress,” he said.

Whether people can see that or not is up for debate. Polling suggests they cannot.

Pollsters ask voters if they think the Government is on the “wrong” or “right” track.

In every major poll, more people think it’s going the wrong way rather than right way. In the TVNZ Verian Poll on Monday, half of voters said the country was going downhill and just 39% were optimistic. The remainder didn’t know.

How will National MPs respond?

Simon Bridges was toppled as leader when polling reached 29% support.

On Tuesday morning, National MPs did their best to be cool, calm and collected in front of the cameras.

The National Party met in Hamilton earlier this year, as it got stuck into a new strategy.

“Not focused on that” was the response first term MP Vanessa Weenink repeated three times. A bold claim given she is the MP of a swing seat, Banks Peninsula, and will likely lose her job if these polls eventuate at next year’s election.

James Meager, a rising star who’s just been made Minister for the South Island, said his experience trying to “drag” the prime minister away from adoring fans just didn’t add up with the polling showing falling support for Luxon as preferred prime minister.

“I think we’ve been doing our best over the past 12 months,” he said, before scoffing at a question about whether there had been talk of changing the leadership.

Ahead of the 2020 election, the National Party cycled through leaders. It all started when the party fell to 29% support under Simon Bridges - and then kept falling with new leaders too. At 33%, things are not currently that bad for National.

But MPs with long memories, who enjoy stirring the pot, have raised the prospect of a leadership coup. Labour’s Willie Jackson predicted “another few polls” could see a new leader.

Erica Stanford is backing Christopher Luxon as leader.

“I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a move on him if things don’t improve,” Jackson said on Tuesday.

“You’ve got the Wonder Boy there, Simeon [Brown]. You’ve got the Bish [Chris Bishop] there, and then Nicola [Willis]. I suppose it will be one of those three. But I’d be worried if I was the prime minister at the moment. I think there’ll be moves,” Jackson predicted.

Wishful thinking, perhaps, from a Labour MP.

Senior National MPs have lined up behind Luxon, especially in the face of mounting competition from coalition partners ACT and NZ First.

Education Minister Erica Stanford has consistently performed well in public perception surveys, but on Tuesday said any recognition she received should be viewed as a win for Luxon.

“I’m very happy where I am. We have an amazing leader. And I tell you what, the only reason I do my job so well is because I have Christopher Luxon, the prime minister, fully backing me,” she replied, when asked if anyone had shoulder-tapped her to take over.

As the election nears closer, there would be more discontent from MPs at risk of losing their seats - if these numbers don’t improve. But it was noted, in conversations around Parliament on Tuesday, that the National Party caucus is quite fresh, with junior MPs who would be unlikely to pose a challenge to Luxon. MPs with years and coups under their belt have joined him in Cabinet.

In conversations off camera and away from microphones, there have been no names to bubble up as a potential serious alternative to Luxon.

That indicates an optimism from MPs that the National Party can earn back public support. That would be helped if it can get some undeniable wins, in terms of higher employment and buying power, later this year.

As Luxon battles with his coalition partners for attention, as well as his battle with the Opposition, National MPs have invested in their “growth” strategy. They will keep talking about “growth” in a bid to “grow” their support.

If the economy actually grows, then so too do their chances of staying in power.