Super Rugby semis: Will Blues victory prevent the club’s board from seeking answers?
Friday, 12 June 2026
ANALYSIS: The Blues' board members should possess the street smarts to keep their distance from coach Vern Cotter and his players until their Super Rugby Pacific season has been terminated.
If the blade drops on the Blues' season at around 9pm on Saturday night, and they're rank outsiders with the bookies for a reason, the powerbrokers on a board that includes former All Blacks coach John Hart should prime themselves to go on the charge and seek answers.
They owe it to their fans and stakeholders.
Because, barring a radical twist in the narrative, something has gone terribly wrong at the Blues.
Given their recent form, their chances of beating the Hurricanes in the semifinal at Hnry Stadium in Wellington appear remote and if they do qualify for the final a week later it would be a travesty.
In addition to bruising the reputation of a competition desperate for credibility, it would open the floodgates for frustrated supporters to ask why a team was allowed to still have a heartbeat so deep into the competition.
The Blues have not only lost their last four games, the most recent a heavy defeat to the Crusaders in the qualifying final, they also have one of the worst defensive records.
The in-form Hurricanes, who celebrated the end of the regular season by anchoring themselves at the top of the competition table, conceded 298 points in 14 games. The Blues leaked 412.
When the Blues won the tournament in 2024, they tackled like madmen.
They had the best defensive record during the round-robin. Only 233 points were scored against them. When they rolled the Fijian Drua, Brumbies and Chiefs in the playoffs, the Blues conceded a total of 35.
How things have changed.
When the Crusaders beat them 52-31 last weekend, the Blues had their tryline breached eight times and veteran fullback McNicholl claimed a hat-trick.
As the team bus departed One New Zealand Stadium following that shellacking in Christchurch the Blues knew all was not lost. They were right: the Chiefs beat the Reds in Hamilton. It gave the Blues the green light to head south for the semi in Wellington.
So here we are.
The Chiefs will play the Crusaders in the first semi in Hamilton on Friday night.
The Hurricanes will meet the Blues in the capital city the following evening.
What will be the most important questions asked by Blues' bosses during their post-season investigation?
It could be a long list.
They may ask whether the players were prepared to put their bodies through the mincer for Cotter.
When teams are tackling their hearts out, the general consensus is they're a tight bunch who put everything on the line for the coach and their team-mates.
We've not seen much of that from the Blues in recent weeks. Will they pull on big lever and do a spectacular U-turn on Saturday night? Maybe. But seeing will be believing.
Excuses can always be found.
The red card to No 8 Malachi Wrampling for his high tackle on flanker Leicester Fainga'anuku was of great assistance to the Crusaders last weekend - they found holes in the depleted defensive line during his absence - but the Blues never looked like winning in the Garden City.
Post-season reviews, we are told, result in flashlights being pointed in every nook and cranny. The Crusaders, for example, asked an independent firm to get to the bottom of the team's dud season in 2024 during Rob Penney's first year in charge.
Penney was retained and the Crusaders won the title the following year.
The Blues, meanwhile, won't have Cotter back on their books. He announced in January he had signed a deal to coach the Reds in 2027 and 2028.
Has that been a distraction for the Blues? Or has the absence of injured loose forward Dalton Papali'i, who won't play for the Blues again if they lose to the Hurricanes because he has signed for French club Castres Olympique, stalled their momentum?
Next year Jason Holland, currently working as an assistant at the Hurricanes, will coach the Blues.
For now, however, it's up to Cotter to somehow get the Blues to defy the odds and win in Wellington.
What happens next for Crusaders coach Rob Penney?
Following the news that Scott Hansen will start a three-year deal from 2027, there's been no official word on whether Penney will remain involved in the sport.
Penney didn't give anything away late last month when the Crusaders confirmed Hansen would be his replacement, other than to say he was disappointed the news had previously been leaked to the media.
Penney began his professional coaching career a couple of decades ago in Christchurch prior to bouncing around Ireland, Australia and Japan - he had several stints with clubs in the latter - before starting with the Crusaders.
A win over the Chiefs would extend Penney's tenure by another week.
With captain David Havili peaking at the right time, and old heads such as Sevu Reece and Johnny McNicholl offering assistance from the fringes, the Crusaders look menacing.
The return of in-form tighthead Fletcher Newell is a bonus for the Crusaders, who could use the dew-coated turf at FMG Stadium Waikato to dominate the Chiefs' scrum.
Playing under the roof in Christchurch has allowed the Crusaders to take their attack to another level in their last four games, although performing under the stars in Hamilton could require them to be more cautious with ball in hand.
The Crusaders' front row of Finlay Brewis, Codie Taylor and Newell may concern themselves with using the wet turf to their advantage if they can use a combination of technique and power to destabalise the Chiefs' set-piece.
What would have happened if the Crusaders had signed Damian McKenzie?
McKenzie, who will play his 150th Super Rugby game in the semi, will continue his sales pitch to All Blacks coach Dave Rennie when he starts at No 10 for the Chiefs.
Born in Southland and educated at private school Christ's College in Christchurch, McKenzie slipped through Canterbury and the Crusaders' fingers.
He left for Hamilton to play for Waikato in the NPC in 2014. The following year McKenzie made his debut for the Chiefs.
He has never won a Super Rugby title.
The Crusaders, meanwhile, won titles between 2017 and 2023 when Richie Mo'unga was at first five-eighth. Last year with Rivez Reihana starting at playmaker, they beat the Chiefs in another final in Hamilton.
Had McKenzie, who can also play at fullback, remained in Christchurch he could have struggled to be considered for regular starts.
Crusaders also had their share of talented players at No 15.
Coach Scott Robertson convinced Havili a move to the midfield would improve his chances of making the All Blacks. It was part of a plan to give Will Jordan more minutes at fullback.
Has rugby league great Andrew Johns given the profile of the Super Rugby Pacific semis a much-needed boost across the Tasman?
With no Australian teams qualifying for the top four after the Brumbies and Reds got beaten last weekend, sports fans across the pond may have decided the’ve not been given much incentive to tune into this weekend's semis.
Johns has provided a compelling reason to think again.
Writing in the Sydney Morning Herald, Johns said rugby league should be prepared to grab talent from the rugby strongholds of New Zealand and South Africa.
His reasoning was sound.
With the NRL set to add teams from Perth and Papua New Guinea in the next two years, as well as ongoing speculation about a South Island team being based in Christchurch, Johns said 90 to 100 extra players would be needed to fill the squads.
And, as he also noted, that would be before trying to fill the junior teams.
Johns wrote that if a player like former All Blacks Ma'a Nonu joined the rugby league ranks, it would be a big win for the 13-man code.
While the majority of rugby players in New Zealand are contracted beyond this season, or have already confirmed deals with clubs outside of the country, NZ Rugby should remain vigilant.
When a rugby league 'immortal'' like Johns encourages NRL clubs to keep searching for talent in New Zealand, it should activate alarm bells.
Rugby league scouts have aggressively hunted for talent in NZ schoolboy competitions for many years. It's no secret.
The Warriors' signing of Crusaders academy player Harry Inch last year got a fair share of column inches in news outlets, but that's just the tip of the iceberg and the days of schoolboys having tunnel vision for an All Blacks jersey are long gone.
The current Super Rugby Pacific players may not go to rugby league, but it could also be argued they're a shop window for what’s running around in the academies and development teams.
Proof, in other words, of how the young thrusters could also become hardened pros.
If the NRL is searching for talent, they know where to find it.