Hurricanes or Chiefs? Who wins the Super Rugby Pacific final and why
Friday, 19 June 2026
Who will win and why? Read our predictions below and let us know your thoughts in the comments.
ANALYSIS: Super Rugby will have just its third different winner in 10 seasons when the Hurricanes and the Chiefs contest Saturday night’s final in Wellington.
The Crusaders were winners of the big prize eight times in that span. The Blues were champions in 2024.
However, they were vanquished in last weekend’s semifinals, leaving the two leading two teams from the regular season to vie for the Super Rugby Pacific title in the capital.
It’s the first time the Hurricanes have been in the final since their solitary success in 2016. Clark Laidlaw’s men are slight favourites on home soil after finishing first in the standings.
The Chiefs have been in four deciders in the last five seasons, but lost every one. Jono Gibbes’ team are desperate to lift the trophy again for the first time since Dave Rennie’s Chiefs clinched back-to-back titles in 2013.
Stuff rugby writers Robert van Royen, Joseph Pearson and Richard Knowler have put their necks on the line with predictions for the final.
It’s tough to call.
Hurricanes (1st) v Chiefs (2nd)
Saturday, 7.05pm at Hnry Stadium, Wellington
Robert van Royen: Chiefs fans could not be faulted for ruing the Hurricanes' rise.
After all, their side would have essentially been home and hosed any other year over the past decade with the Crusaders and Blues are kaput.
Now, the Hurricanes stand in their way as hot favourites with the Kiwi bookies to win their first crown since 2016.
And, despite forecast rain, they should get it done in front of a packed Hnry Stadium in the capital, ensuring the Chiefs lose a record fourth straight Super Rugby final.
Indeed, while the Chiefs are the best equipped side in the competition to beat the Hurricanes — as they've already proven this year — the unavailability of a few key players swings the tide the way of the high-flying hosts.
Hurricanes 12-
Joseph Pearson: The Hurricanes will win their first title in a decade because they are a humming machine, with the luxury of unleashing barnstorming winger Kini Naholo from the bench.
Sorry, Chiefs fans.
Yes, I predicted last week they would get pipped by the Crusaders in their Hamilton semifinal. They were 42-5 up at half-time. It was mesmerising.
What are the odds of being wrong twice in a row?
The Hurricanes shade it because the Chiefs are short of attacking firepower.
No Wallace Sititi at No 8, the exciting Isaac Hutchinson has joined their growing list of absent outside backs and the experienced Lalakai Foketi is missing from their midfield with injury, too. Their hopes appear to rest on Damian McKenzie’s slender shoulders.
In their semifinal, the Hurricanes proved by trouncing the Blues they could overcome the jitters of the playoffs.
Cam Roigard should be their key man at halfback once two teams who love to play hit full stride, even if Wellington’s grim weather is a hindrance.
Hurricanes 12-
Richard Knowler: The Chiefs.
Having picked them to win the title at the start of the season, and then watch them humiliate the Crusaders with a clinical opening 40 minutes of the semifinal last weekend, it seems silly to deviate from that original prognosis now.
If you look closely at the Chiefs’ hurt locker, you will see a grotesque green sludge creeping out below the door.
They’re primed to convert that toxic waste into the sweet nectar of success.
There’s only so much frustration, anger and disappointment that this Chiefs can absorb before they finally puts together a winning performance together in the final.
Chiefs coach Jono Gibbes would have noted how jittery the Hurricanes were in the first half against the Blues last weekend. That is a weakness to be exploited.
If the Chiefs can take the Wellington crowd out of the equation, that’s half the job done.
Chiefs 12-