By the numbers: The property highs and lows of 2024

Thursday, 12 December 2024

The housing market spent much of the year as a buyer’s market after an “underwhelming recovery” turned into a downturn, a property researcher says.

It’s the season for overviews of the year, and CoreLogic has just published its annual Best of the Best report on the highs and lows of the housing market.

CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said there was an initial lift in prices early in the year, driven by post-election sentiment.

But prices quickly resumed their decline as unemployment rose and interest rate cuts were delayed, he said.

“This year has been a buyer’s market, with plenty of stock on offer, giving purchasers more negotiating power.”

Part of the reason why prices had remained subdued was the “overhang” of listings.

“Sales volumes have been rising, but with buyers in the ascendency, deals have been taking longer, and overall volumes remain 10 to 15% below their historical averages.”

Here’s what the numbers in the report say.

16.7%

That’s how much house prices in Blaketown in Grey district on the West Coast increased over the last year.

It was the biggest increase in the country, and it was followed by Kaikōura in Canterbury, and Cobden, also in Grey district, which each saw prices go up by 12.8%.

Most of the 10 suburbs with the highest price growth were in smaller provincial areas, but two Queenstown suburbs, Fernhill and Lake Hayes Estate, featured with increases of 11% and 10.2%.

Cobden also had the biggest price increase over a five-year period, with its median up 108.8%.

Davidson said the suburbs that recorded the highest price growth were largely in cheaper areas, and that was not surprising as affordability was always a factor.

“But there are reasons these areas are cheaper: they are usually smaller and more provincial, and have less employment opportunities.”

-10.0%

At the other end of the spectrum, prices in Mataura in Gore in Southland fell by 10% over the year, which was the biggest decline in the country.

It was followed by Pipitea in Wellington and Ruawai in Kaipara with -9.9% and -9.8% falls respectively.

But the top 10 reflected the challenges of the country’s two biggest markets, with four suburbs from Wellington and three from Auckland featured.

Davidson has said job insecurity appeared to be weighing on Wellington’s market, while abundant supply seemed to be a significant restraint on prices in Auckland.

$3.36 million

The median price in the country’s most expensive suburb, Auckland’s Herne Bay.

Auckland dominates the high end of the market with nine of the top 10 most expensive suburbs. Saint Marys Bay ($2.76m) and Remuera ($2.45m) were second and third respectively.

Arrowtown in Otago’s Queenstown-Lakes district was the only suburb outside Auckland to make the top 10, ranking fifth with a median of $2.39m.

Seatoun was the Wellington region’s most expensive suburb with a median of $1.70m, while Scarborough had Christchurch’s highest median at $1.81m.

$191,600

In stark contrast, the country’s most affordable suburb, Murupara in Whakatane in Bay of Plenty, had a median price of $191,600.

The second and third most affordable suburbs were Gore’s Mataura and Runanga in Grey district, with medians of $262,800 and $283,000.

Auckland Central’s median of $518,540 made it the region’s most affordable suburb, while Wellington’s was Wellington Central and Christchurch’s was Phillipstown, with medians of $452,400 and $453,400.

$21.84 million

The top sale price this year. It was for an Italian-style mansion with 180 degree views of the city at 84 Paritai Dr in Auckland’s Orakei.

All 10 of this year’s top sales were in Auckland, although one was a lifestyle block on Waiheke which went for $12m.

The second biggest sale price was for 95 Victoria Ave in Remuera, a palatial property once owned by yachting legend Grant Dalton. It was purchased for $20m.

Wellington’s top sale was 95 Ludlam St in Seatoun, which went for $4.55m, while Christchurch’s was 1 Whitewash Head Rd in Scarborough, which went for $8.10m.

But Davidson said while there were some high sale prices and suburb medians, overall price movement remained patchy.

“The post-election upturn petered out in the first part of the year, and there are still vulnerabilities in the market.”

27.7%

Rents rose by 27.7% in Nukuhau in Taupō, and that was the highest rent increase in the country.

The suburbs where rents went up the most all had rises of over 14%. No region dominated in this space, although no Wellington suburb made the top 10.

The Auckland suburb with the biggest increase was Manly with 19%, while in Christchurch it was Casebrook with 15.9%. In Wellington, Thorndon rents were up most, at 5.3%.

But some suburbs recorded decreases in rent, and at least 10 suburbs had falls of over 4%. Rents in Kawerau in the Bay of Plenty had the biggest decline at -9.1%.

10%

That’s how much CoreLogic expects sales nationwide to rise in 2025, compared to this year.

At the same time, it is picking prices to increase by about 5% nationwide.

Davidson said that would still leave values 10 to 15% below the post-Covid market peak, and within that wider picture of modest price growth some regions would fare better and some worse.

He was cautiously optimistic about the outlook for the market, but conflicting forces would continue to be at play in the new year, he said.

“Interest rates are coming down, but ongoing affordability challenges, the lingering effects of high listings and economic uncertainty, including rising unemployment, might mean an uneven recovery.

“While 2025 brings some positive sentiment, it’s unlikely to deliver sharp gains, but there is likely to be a steadier path ahead for buyers and sellers alike.”