Tourism numbers plateau 14% below pre-Covid levels

Friday, 11 July 2025

There were 190,600 overseas visitors to New Zealand in May, Stats NZ figures show.

It’s not just migration numbers that have dropped, the number of tourists heading to New Zealand has slipped too, and that’s a challenge for the tourism sector’s recovery, economists say.

New overseas visitors data from Stats NZ shows there were 3.37 million arrivals over the year ending May, an increase of 167,000 on the previous year.

While the numbers were up on an annual basis, there were 190,600 visitors in May, and once seasonally adjusted that was a 0.9% decline from April 2025.

And the annual figure was just 87% of the 219,300 visitors recorded in May 2019, pre-Covid.

ASB senior economist Mark Smith said inbound annual tourism inflows looked to have plateaued at around 14% below pre-Covid peaks.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is laying out his assessment of New Zealand's place in the world, and highlighting his strong focus on trade during his 10 days overseas, where he visited China, Belgium and the Netherlands.

The challenge would be to try and grow the sector at a time of heightened global uncertainty, he said.

“Increasing trade frictions could deliver a hit to global and New Zealand tourism over 2025.

“The US and China are New Zealand’s second and third largest tourism markets, accounting for more than $4.5 billion in annual tourism earnings.”

But annual arrivals had largely plateaued for most major markets, he said.

Of the 190,600 overseas visitors in May, 45% were from Australia, 9% from the US, 9% from China, and 5% from India. Just 3% were from the UK.

Infometrics economist Nick Brunsdon agreed tourism arrivals were weak in May, although he noted that on an annual basis tourism arrivals were up 5.2%.

Recovery of arrivals from China had been sluggish, reaching just 59% of pre-pandemic levels in the year to May 2025, he said.

“However, arrivals from China rose 17% per annum in May, impressive growth from our third largest market, and arrivals from the US, our second largest market, continue to grow strongly, up 8.5% in May.”

The Government has high hopes for the tourism sector as an economic driver.

Overall, the tourism recovery was grinding slowly, and it would be several years of slow growth until arrivals returned to pre-pandemic levels, he said.

“A weak outlook for global growth could put consumers into their shells and slow tourism growth further.

“Changes to US trade and foreign policy are yet to have a perceptible effect on tourist arrivals to New Zealand, with US arrivals still growing.”

But visitor arrivals from Canada had picked up, with double-digit annual growth in April and May, and it could be an early sign of Canadian tourists looking for destinations outside the US, Brundson said.

“Flight connectivity between New Zealand and Australia continues to grow, and in coming months, we will see whether these new routes attract more inbound tourism than outbound tourism.”

The Government has high hopes for the tourism industry as a major player in New Zealand’s economic recovery.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Tourism and Hospitality Minister Louise Upston have repeatedly said tourism has the potential to become the country’s biggest export earner again.

And over recent months they have announced a raft of new policies, including a Tourism Growth Roadmap, and funding in a bid to unlock the full potential of the tourism sector.

On Thursday Upston announced funding for the construction of a new cycle bridge on the West Coast Wilderness Cycle Trail, which she said would bring more visitors to the region and boost the local economy.

The investment was part of the first stage of the Tourism Growth Roadmap, which also included additional international marketing funding to encourage more international visitors, she said.