What's going on with residential development?
Tuesday, 10 March 2026
ANALYSIS: The long-anticipated construction sector recovery is taking its time to gather momentum, but in recent weeks a slew of announcements about residential developments has crossed the newsroom desk.
While big residential development projects don’t happen overnight, and tend to travel a long, and convoluted path, the sudden influx of releases in this space seemed unusual in the current economic climate.
Could those announcements be a sign of improved confidence and an increase in residential activity? Was the construction sector’s much hoped for recovery getting underway?
So The Post talked to some industry experts and dug into the latest construction sector figures. This is what we found out.
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What’s the story with residential development announcements?
Recent announcements covering residential developments from Auckland to Queenstown would mean thousands of new homes if they proceeded.
The Templeton Group announced that its Warkworth Ridge development, in the north of Auckland, had hit a significant milestone with 100 houses now completed and dozens of families living in the community.
It would have more than 600 homes when completed, and almost 70% of the lots had been sold, the group said. The full infrastructure for it had been designed, consented, built and was in operation.
In its half year results, NZX-listed Winton Land announced the Fast Track Expert Panel had issued a draft decision approving its Sunfield development on a 244.5ha site near Takanini in south Auckland.
The company expected a final decision to be released in the coming weeks, and if approval was granted it planned to get started on the master planned community of about 4000 homes immediately.
In Tauranga, Classic Developments announced it had completed 500,000m³ of earthworks on the first stage of the Tauriko West development by the Wairoa River.
About 1200 new homes were planned for Riverside, the first stage of the development, and it would also now include a 200-unit retirement village.
The company was on track to deliver the first new homes in Riverside in 2027, but it planned to build up to 4000 new homes in the broader development.
In Queenstown, construction has officially started on the first stage of Te Taumata Lakeview, a $3 billion mixed-use precinct that would include more than 1000 homes when completed.
The developer, Ninety-Four Feet, said the first stage was made up of two residential towers and a hotel and was scheduled for completion in late 2027. It had already secured more than $150 million in pre-sales.
At the opposite end of the country, Kiwi Fresh Orange Company announced it was waiting for Far North District Council commissioners to make their recommendation on a proposed land-use zoning change near Kerikeri.
The zoning change would allow the company to build 2000 to 2500 homes on 197ha of land between Kerikeri and Waipapa.
The build of the privately funded project would address the shortage of homes, and also stimulate economic growth and create jobs in the region, the developer said.
So what does the data say?
Stats NZ released its latest data on new home consents and the value of building work last week, and it was a mixed bag of information.
The figures showed there were a total of 36,944 new homes consented nationwide in the year ended January, an increase of 9.3% on the same time last year.
Within that, standalone house consents were up 5% compared with the previous year, while consents for apartments and townhouses were up 26% and 14% respectively.
Auckland recorded the largest number of new home consents over the year, up 13% on the previous year. Canterbury had the second-largest, up 12%.
The number of new homes consented in January alone was up 15% from January 2025.
But when it came to the value of building work started in the December 2025 quarter, the figures were not as positive.
Once seasonally adjusted, residential building volume fell 1.1% compared with the September 2025 quarter - although that was better than non-residential volume which was down 6.5%.
Total building value was $7.7b, down 3.6% from the same period the previous year, but within that the value of residential building work was up 0.6% to $4.9b.
The figures also showed residential construction prices rose 0.8% in the December 2025 quarter, and that the total value of work in the North Island had gone down while it had gone up in the South Island.
What do economists make of the situation?
Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said the lift in consents was an encouraging sign for the sector after a tough couple of years.
He expected building activity to gradually lift over the course of the year, encouraged by the sharp falls in interest rates which reduced financing costs for developers and supported buyer demand.
But he did not expect a return to the boom times seen in the wake of the pandemic, as there had been a significant reshaping of demand and supply conditions in the housing market, he said.
“Elevated levels of home building at the same time as a slump in net migration has eliminated the under-building of homes relative to population changes that we saw over much of the past decade, especially in areas like Auckland.
“Now, while we don’t have an oversupply of homes, we no longer have the shortages that underpinned large house price gains and new building in previous years.”
Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said new residential activity was stabilising, in line with consent trends over the last 18 months.
But the value of building work figures showed the lowest level of residential activity for any quarter since 2015, and confirmed the construction industry remained under pressure, he said.
“Prospects for residential activity are less negative [than non-residential], with the annual dwelling consent total lifting by 10% to almost 37,000 since May last year.
“We expect to see more stable residential work put in place figures over the next few quarters.”
It was worth noting growth in the total value of activity in Auckland had improved to -2.5%pa, the least negative result in almost two years, he added.
“That’s important for the industry given that Auckland makes up 40% of nationwide construction activity.”
And what do the developers say?
Templeton Group chief executive Nigel McKenna said the builders committing to Warkworth Ridge — companies like GJ Gardner, Stonewood Homes, Landmark Homes, Golden Homes and Signature Homes — were putting money on the table, not just promises.
They bought sections, paid deposits, settled on title and then built to a timeline they determined, he said.
“One hundred homes completed tells you they read the market well, and they clearly see conditions improving. That's a strong vote of confidence. And it’s justified, with up to five new homes being sold each week.
“From Templeton’s perspective, too, conditions are improving. We are seeing new levels of engagement on sections from retail buyers and builders alike, signing up 11 sections in the last two weeks.”
But Classic Group director Peter Cooney did not think the coming year would be as strong for the sector as many people had predicted.
That’s because of uncertainty around interest rates and the upcoming election, along with the cost of construction at a time when people were price-conscious, he said.
“Talking to builders and developers around the country the story is the same ‒ there’s good enquiry, although it’s not resulting in the level of turnover people would like. But if builds are priced right they are selling well.”
He was confident progressing with the Tauriko West development because the area’s population was growing fast so there was demand, but it was short of housing so more stock was needed.
“It’s a hugely attractive area for people retiring, and for young families. So the conditions are right for it, and for the retirement village too.”
In the view of Ninety-Four Feet managing director Dean Rzechta, market conditions in Auckland and Wellington remained challenging, and he was not sure when that would improve.
But the market in Queenstown was different, he said. “It’s a real anomaly, and not just in New Zealand, in Australasia. It keeps defying expectations and its appeal to buyers just seems to grow.”
The recent change to the foreign buyers ban that meant rich overseas investors could now buy homes worth $5 million would only increase its attractiveness, he said.
“Te Taumata Lakeview has been a long time in the making as we first started the process in 2018, but we’re confident in how we’re going, and excited to reach the stage we’re now at.
“Construction capacity and capability in the area has improved, and that mitigates delivery risks, and we’ve sold enough to get the project under way.”
They had secured full stage one funding from Merricks Capital, and that would enable delivery of the project over the next two years, Rzechta said.
“There’s deep buyer interest in the development, and we’re about six months away from launching the next wave of sales.”