Market volatility and green shoots: 100,000 EV milestone, $2.1m ASB fine and the relaunch of GrabOne

Friday, 6 March 2026

OPINION: March kicked off and with it, a cold snap denoting the impending end of summer. With that came a feeling of existential dread as we watched the Middle East go up in flames and US markets become a sea of red.

Here are some takeaways from the March 2 business week.

Volatility goes crazy

There is plenty of evidence that instigating a war of choice on a major Middle Eastern power, one of the world’s largest oil producers, which also has an enormous stockpile of weapons, could be a risky gambit for the US and Israel. And indeed, it’s sent the yips through global markets, sending them sliding.

But as per other such global shocks, traders tend to see the upside sooner than most. The outbreak of wars and so forth generally see a move away from stocks and towards “safer” assets such as bonds, gold and other currencies, but it’s a movement that generally subsides.

Over time, markets have generally advanced despite the shocks, even when they were global wars.

'From the start of World War II in 1939 until it ended in late 1945, the Dow was up a total of 50%, more than 7% per year. So, during two of the worst wars in modern history, the US stock market was up a combined 115%,' wrote Ben Carlson from Ritholtz Wealth Management, as he assessed the Iran war impact.

But that doesn’t mean markets are home and hosed. As moomoo market strategy consultant Greg Boland wrote this week, the CBOE Volatility Index, known as the VIX, has spiked as a result of traders rushing to hedge their risk, and “the key question now is whether this remains a contained regional conflict or evolves into something that disrupts energy flows more materially”.

And by energy flows, this literally means oil. Moomoo’s Brent crude forward curve has shifted upward, reflecting higher prices today and across future delivery months. The price of Brent crude has jumped 15% this week alone - and the week hasn’t quite ended yet.

Inflation is a concern if oil prices stay high - a concern shared by most of the world.

How the war will rebound on the US economy, over and above costing it a billion a day extra to pay for munitions, machinery and the movement of troops, is another question.

Recently, President Donald Trump stood before Congress and boasted of the stock market being up, and gas prices, inflation and mortgage rates heading down. Critics say while the labour market and investment have done OK under Trump, growth and the current account and trade balances are worse under this administration. Either way, it will still be inflation and cost of living primarily that determine political fortunes come mid-terms in November.

Local impacts

On a practical level, there are New Zealanders stuck in the Middle East, with major aviation hubs there suspending most flights, stranding hundreds of thousands of travellers. There are many for whom the usual rules of travel insurance will not apply, and there are those hoping the entire war will be done and dusted before they take their bucket-list trip to Croatia via Dubai, for example.

On a broader level, there are some economists warning that if “regime change” in Iran hasn’t been achieved - i.e. the purported end of war with the country - by mid-April, then uncertainty about the flow-on effects of the turmoil in the Middle East appears likely to cast a dark shadow of uncertainty over New Zealand’s Budget forecasts. Just when we were all enthused about green shoots.

The week’s economic data contained evidence of those precious green shoots on the however - retail spending ticked up in February, there was a modest house price lift, tourism numbers picked up, and there was the fag end of a pretty robust earnings season with Michael Hill International and Transpower reporting profit lifts. The NZX has largely avoided (this far) the marked volatility of other stock markets.

Just be sure to try to avoid doom-scrolling your KiwiSaver balance for the next few weeks to maintain your sanity.

Online sales firms reboot

The online retail space saw a couple of resurrections during this week, the first of which was vouchers and deals discount website GrabOne, which is set to relaunch after finding a new buyer, Wellington-based digital marketing company Paradigm Group. Paradigm says it will attempt to return the platform to its former glory as a “discovery marketplace”, with some 30 companies already signed on for the marketing boost.

Meanwhile, online fashion and lifestyle shopping platform NZSale found a new buyer: the original founder, Jaime Jackson. It closed last year, after having been the subject of complaints from customers about lengthy delays for order deliveries ‒ and some that never turned up. But with the aim of banishing these issues, the site will hew to its old mission of offering a bargain, using bulk purchases and sales.

As the cost of living escalates, it’s a welcome re-addition for many to the retail scene.

Competition gets a rev

In the same week that Foodstuffs North Island aims to overthrow a Commerce Commission decision to decline it the ability to merge with its South Island sister company, competition in general - and the lack thereof in most of New Zealand’s major sectors - is getting an airing.

The Government says the Commerce (Promoting Competition and Other Matters) Amendment Bill, currently before Parliament, will make a meaningful difference to many local sectors where large, often Australia-owned behemoths dominate (think supermarkets, banks, insurance and others).

A range of opinions suggests the thrust of these changes aims to streamline competition law processes while granting the Commerce Commission increased intervention powers, which many in business don’t like.

Competition campaigners, meanwhile, do not like provisions like those allowing for “behavioural undertakings” to underpin some mergers - things companies promise to do to ensure they won’t abuse their strengthened market position. For anti-consumer advocates like Tex Edwards, this kind of provision is a crock: “International evidence shows behavioural undertakings are difficult to monitor, easy to circumvent, and rarely deliver competitive outcomes,” he told a Select Committee.

In any case, no breakthrough in seriously challenging our highly uncompetitive electricity market so far, although consumers did get a modest winter Christmas present in new rules from the Electricity Commission which force gentailers to check once a year whether their customers are on the best plan they offer, and forbid them charging customers for billing mistakes dating back more than six months.

Drill baby drill

Tāiko Critical Minerals Limited is a locally based mining company that officially listed on the NZX this week. The company is focused on developing 'mine-to-market' operations for high-value mineral sands on the West Coast of the South Island, with a primary focus on the Barrytown Mineral Project, looking for Garnet and other minerals.

Critics object to possible ecological damage, public health, and the social impact on the West Coast, especially as the project is located near the only known breeding colony of the endangered Westland petrel. But others promote the project as a job generator.

Another recent entrant to the NZX has been Rua Gold, a Canadian-headquartered gold exploration company that debuted on the NZX at the end of February. The company is aggressively advancing high-grade gold and antimony projects in New Zealand’s historic Reefton and Hauraki goldfields.

The question for both of these is, how long can investors hold on, putting in more money to fund exploration, before paydirt is hit? And, why are most of the NZX’s new listings small mining firms, while the bigger, more inconic companies including Bremworth, Rakon and even possibly Fletcher Building, are being picked off by overseas concerns?