War in the Middle East accelerates away from the off-ramp
Monday, 23 March 2026
Market Summary
On Friday, markets across the world were a sea of red as the US-Israel conflict with Iran continued, and oil prices continued soaring. Talk of “boots on the ground” in Iran did not improve overall sentiment, and nor did news Iraq had declared “force majeure” (a breaking of contracts due to major unexpected events) on all foreign-owned oilfields in the country. Brent crude reached US$113 a barrel at its high point.
The central banks of Japan, Europe and the UK all held their cash rates steady but warned of inflationary pressures and cuts ahead if the Middle East conflict continues.
Meanwhile, by the end of Friday, the Dow Jones lost 0.96% by end of play, the S&P 500 dropped 1.51% and the Nasdaq fell 2.01%. All major indices posted their fourth losing week in a row.
In Europe, the pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 1.7% lower, and Asian markets were mainly down as well. Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a public holiday, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.6%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 closed down 0.35%.
South Korea’s blue-chip Kospi was the rare exception, rising 0.31% to end the session on Friday.
Back here, the S&P/NZX 50 fell 0.47%. Business news in the day continued to be dominated by the fallout from the war - whether domestic tourism might benefit, where empty petrol pumps might lead, which consumer costs might be most impacted, and a look at the impact on farmers in the US, already doing it tough thanks to tariffs.
There were continued questions over this country’s possible move to privatise its meat inspection processes.
Rakon said it expected full year pre-tax earnings at the lower end of its $15 million-$24 million guidance, while revealing Bourns, which made a takeover offer for the company, had now achieved a ‘yes’ from 72% of shareholders (it needs to get to 90% to compulsorily acquire Rakon).
Late on Friday night credit ratings agency Fitch effectively downgraded its credit rating for New Zealand by attaching a “negative outlook” to its “AA+” rating for its foreign-currency sovereign debt. Fitch had previously attached a stable outlook to the country.
On the main board, the biggest decliners included WasteCo, which dropped 18.18% as its stock continued to be heavily traded; Locate Technologies, a Bitcoin treasury company, dropped further, down 7.94%, as Bitcoin lost steam, Enprise Group fell 7.41%, Rua Bioscience lost 6.06% and The Warehouse Group slipped 5.80%.
Gains were small. Eroad was up 4.94%, Gentrack rose 4.63%, Bremworth advanced 3.95%, PaySauce gained 3.77% and Comvita was up 2.86%.
In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.82% on Friday, with mining and minerals still downbeat due to a drop in commodity prices—specifically gold—and heightened global interest rate expectations. Leading decliners on Friday were Ora Banda Mining and Greatland Resources, which fell 7.81% and 7.25% respectively.
While we slept
Iran has said the Strait of Hormuz would be 'completely closed” immediately if the US follows up on President Donald Trump's threat to attack its power plants over the weekend, and Trump then set a 48-hour deadline to open the strait.
Iran has practically closed the Strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world, and attacks on ships and threats of further strikes have stopped nearly all tanker traffic. Some of the largest oil producers have made cuts because their crude has nowhere to go.
The US and its allies in Europe and Asia rely heavily on the oil to meet energy demand. In its most recent attempt to relieve pressure on energy prices, the US has lifted some sanctions on Iranian oil at sea.
An Iran official said on X that if Iran's power plants and infrastructure are targeted, then vital infrastructure across the region — including energy and desalination facilities— would be considered legitimate targets and “irreversibly destroyed.”
Meanwhile, “the largest tax refund of all time” promised by Trump to Americans is likely to be eaten up by the spike is petrol prices, some US economists believe.
AP reports they now expect slower growth this spring and for the year as a whole, as dollars that are spent on gas are less likely to be used for restaurant meals, new clothes, or entertainment. Lower and middle-income households are likely to be hit particularly hard, because they receive lower refunds, while spending a greater proportion of their earnings on gas.
Data from the Bank of America Institute, released Friday, showed that spending on gas on the bank's credit and debit cards shot 14.4% higher in the week ended March 14 compared with a year ago. Before the war, such spending was running 5% below the previous year, a benefit to consumers.
What’s up today
Fonterra and Synlait report their six month results today.
Aimee Shaw profiles Tata Consultancy, a global efficiency consultant that has changed the workforces of many of this country’s largest companies. Miriam Bell profiles yet another peanut butter exporting star, Forty Thieves; Dita De Boni on a phenomenon called “AI brain fry”, Blayne Slabbert looks at why the US wants in on West Coast minerals, Grant Bradley explains why Air NZ’s jet fuel situation could be precarious, and productivity expert Geerten Lengkeek gives Fonterra’s Miles Hurrell props for what he’s achieved at the company, on news he’s set to step down.