Tourism numbers threatened by Iran war
Wednesday, 15 April 2026
International tourist numbers have continued to climb this year, but the war in the Middle East is a threat to the recovery in visitor numbers, economists say.
New overseas visitors data from Stats NZ shows there were 3.58 million arrivals over the year ending February - an increase of 229,000 on the previous year.
There were 408,100 overseas visitors in November - 53,700 more than in the same month the year before. That equated to 98% of the 417,900 arrivals in February 2019, before Covid.
Within those numbers, Chinese visitor arrivals in January and February combined hit the highest level since 2019.
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Infometrics economist Nick Brunsdon said the visitor numbers reflected ongoing growth momentum and a one-off boost from the Lunar New Year in February.
Over the three months to February arrivals were up 8.5% on the same period last year, and that was more reflective of the underlying momentum for tourism than the 15% annual rise for February, he said.
“China has strong underlying tourism momentum, with arrivals in the three months to February up 48% from 2025, likely reflecting a change enabling more visa-free travel for eligible Chinese passport holders.
“It is encouraging to see underlying strength in Chinese visitor arrivals as China was New Zealand’s second largest tourism market before the pandemic struck, but has faced a stunted recovery.”
Brunsdon said the impact from the Iran War and higher fuel prices was not being seen yet, but he expected there would be a combination of short-term and longer-term influences on travel.
High oil prices and their knock-on effect on airfares remained a key threat to international visitor arrivals going forward, with higher costs to get to New Zealand, he said.
“However, with more travel likely to divert away from the Middle East due to disruption and safety concerns, New Zealand could stand to benefit from redirected travel from key markets like the US and Asia.
“Ongoing weakness of the New Zealand dollar may also soften the cost of travel for those heading to New Zealand as once visitors arrive in New Zealand they will get better bang for buck than they would have a year ago.”
The shifts in relative costs would take time to flow through to arrival statistics, as people typically booked trips well in advance, he added.
ASB economist Wesley Tanuvasa said inbound tourism remained strong, with annual short-term visitor arrivals reaching 92% of pre-Covid peaks in February.
On a monthly basis, February visitor numbers were up 1.7% once seasonally adjusted, and it was the eighth consecutive monthly increase, he said.
“Growth in the Australian and US visitor cohorts held while Chinese visitors increased significantly, reflecting the later timing of the Chinese New Year in 2026.
“Having more of the tourism increase driven by the Chinese cohort, who are bigger spenders per day, should support growth even if only a seasonal boost.”
But Tanuvasa agreed the Middle East conflict had muddied the outlook for tourism given the expectation of costlier travel.
“A weaker NZD can still support spending for the cohorts that do visit us over this period of higher global volatility.”
Tourism and Hospitality Minister Louise Upston said the data showed tourism had continued its strong recovery, and more international visitors meant more customers for businesses and more jobs.
She acknowledged the effects of the fuel crisis were yet to be seen.
“But I will keep working with tourism operators on ensuring New Zealand continues to be seen as an attractive and safe destination to visit,” she said.