NZ business and consumer sentiment inches up as Government confirms poll lead
Wednesday, 1 July 2026
Slight upticks in business and consumer confidence in the last 24 hours should put a spring in the step of the coalition Government ahead of an election heavily predicated on how financially secure the electorate feels.
Figures from ANZ this morning showed business confidence was up 27 points from a two-year low of -10.6 in April, and now sitting at +37, largely because the threat of global economic catastrophe from the war in Iran had eased ‒ even while the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not really changed as yet.
Expected own activity ‒ the level of confidence about how one’s own business would do in the year ‒ rose 11 points from 25.6 to also be +37.
Confidence is one thing, and what actually happens another. The June ANZ business confidence reading notes “reported past activity” ‒ a backward-looking metric that measures a firm's actual trading and production volumes over the preceding period compared to the same time last year ‒ was downgraded, from 14.8 to 9.
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Investment intentions, another way of looking at confidence, “remained patchy despite a solid bounce” in confidence, said ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner, who noted activity indicators rebounded in June, with most of the increase occurring at the very start of the month, before the sharp fall in oil prices that occurred mid-month.
But “the general theme of this month’s data is more optimism about the future, with both business confidence and expected own activity at historically solid levels”, she said.
“However, the initial oil shock hit to confidence is still working its way through the economy, with the past own activity question drifting lower again this month. It makes intuitive sense that actual activity would take longer to turn around than confidence and expectations.
“That said, retail has rebounded, and manufacturing never fell.”
Also this morning, Centrix data showed the number of Kiwis behind on at least one credit contract had fallen by 11,000 in the month to an 11-year low of 432,000 people, suggesting more had got on top of their finances.
The headline figure may have obscured the fact many had cut their spending to the bone from feeling less flush, and that could be behind the result. Polling for The Post by Freshwater Strategy indicated that rather than improving, the national mood on household finances had become negative over the past year, with 34% of households expecting worse finances in the coming year.
But, on its face, the Centrix data was uplifting, Centrix said. “Overall, June’s data suggests credit conditions are improving for many households and businesses, but confidence remains measured and pockets of financial strain are still evident,” said the company’s chief operating officer, Monika Lacey.
Lower mortgage rates had eased pressure on households with home loans, she added, even while financial pressure on renters and borrowers with personal loans, credit cards, and Buy Now Pay Later loans was just as evident.
And the Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index (ECI) out last week fell by 12.5 points to 83.1 in the June quarter ‒ the lowest reading for the survey since it began 22 years ago.
Government ministers and MPs will be riding high on the political side of things as well, with the latest June 2026 Roy Morgan poll showing the National-led governing coalition holding a clear lead with 51% support, virtually unchanged from May.
In contrast, the combined Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori parliamentary opposition sits at 42%.
A standout feature of the latest Roy Morgan poll was a significant surge for The Opportunity Party (TOP), which rose to 6.5%.
Both Roy Morgan and the mid-June The Post/Freshwater poll show National, ACT and NZ First holding their parliamentary majority of 61 seats, although the two polls came to that total differently. Roy Morgan says National are at 31%, NZ First 10.5% and ACT 9.5% versus Labour on 25.5%, Greens 13.5% and Te Pāti Māori at 3%, while The Post/Freshwater shows National 29%, NZ First 12% and ACT 8% versus Labour 35%, Greens 10% and Te Pāti Māori at 2%.