No early Christmas present coming for the property market
Thursday, 4 December 2025
The November property market was all about zeros - a zero rise or fall in the month and in the last quarter, while the whole of last year only showed a -0.7% drop.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson called it a holding pattern, brought on by higher than usual stock numbers and ongoing concern about unemployment.
He said any job growth was slow to kick in even as the economy and property market seemed to be turning upward.
Cotality’s November data showed the national median value now sat at $806,551.
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Davidson said across the main centres, Auckland remained sluggish in November, down by -0.2%, with Dunedin and Wellington managing to edge up by 0.1%.
Christchurch, with one of the steadiest markets in the country, recorded a 0.3% rise, while Tauranga was up by 0.6% and Hamilton by 0.7%.
Davidson said property values across the country were patchy over May to August as households and firms remained in a cautious mood. September and October brought a few signs of life for property values, but November just eased off again.
“Clearly, the falls in mortgage rates we’ve seen lately would point to a bit more upside for property values as we get into 2026, not least because a range of housing affordability measures have also improved back closer to their long-term averages.”
But he said the subdued November property value data suggested the process was taking a bit of time to get started.
“On that point, it’s also worth keeping in mind that the stock of listings on the market remains higher than its normal level for the time of year, and many buyers will still be feeling that they’re in the box-seat when it comes to price negotiations,” he said.
While the economy was showing encouraging signs, the unemployment rate was still a concern.
“On balance, the fundamentals seem to be moving towards growth in property values next year. But right now, we remain in a holding pattern.”
Auckland’s various markets generally weakened again in November, with only Waitākere bucking the trend, edging up by 0.2%. Elsewhere, the falls ranged from a modest -0.1% in North Shore down to -0.8% in Papakura.
“Across the super-city as a whole, November was the eighth monthly decline in a row, totalling -3.1%. That’s after a smaller, cumulative rise of 1.6% in the seven months to March this year. In other words, Tāmaki Makaurau continues to lag many other parts of the country, and this is weighing on the national median. Buyer caution and a relatively high supply of property are relevant factors here,” Davidson said.
In Wellington it was a mixed bag for the region with Lower Hutt seeing property values fall by -0.5%, and Kāpiti Coast edging down by -0.1%. However, Wellington city itself saw a 0.4% increase.
“There are a few patchy signs of life around some of these areas, with Wellington City, for example, now rising for two months in a row. But the general story for Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington’s property market still looks fairly sluggish, reflecting the subdued state of the underlying economy and muted sentiment.”
Provincial markets were also soft in November with Napier dipping by -0.3%, Hastings by -0.2%, and Queenstown by -0.6%.
There was also a cluster of provincial markets that were either flat or only slightly higher in November, but Whangārei with a 0.5% monthly rise and Waihōpai Invercargill at 0.8% stood out.
Invercargill along with Gore, Ashburton and Kaikōura were the four districts where property values were at a new peak.
Davidson said as a broad trend the property value falls were becoming less widespread.
He said there was a sense that it was one step forward and one step back for property values right now, especially Auckland.
“That said, although there may not be much direct impact on the housing market from last week’s OCR drop, mortgage rates have already fallen a long way in the past year or so and as current fixed terms roll over more existing borrowers will enjoy the benefits.”
First home buyers remained a very strong presence in the market, and mortgaged multiple property owners, including ‘Mum and Dad’ investors, also steadily returning.
Looking into 2026 he said on top of the mortgage rate falls, and a rise in sales volumes may erode the stock of listings on the market in 2026, alongside a probable upturn in the economy and jobs market.
He expected it would mean property values looked poised to grow more consistently in the next year.