Wellington transport predictions for 2025 … how we did
Wednesday, 31 December 2025
It was the final year of smoking in bars and a new site called The Facebook was launched. In a 2004 Wellington newsroom, a series of predictions were made about how the region’s transport would look in the year 2025.
The article was informed by the then-released regional land transport strategy, which looked at what the region could look like in 20 years – 2025.
Some it got right, some wrong. Some of the things were done, some weren’t.
It predicted Wellington could lose its status of second-biggest North Island city to Hamilton or Tauranga by 2050 if the transport plan failed. Infometrics data has Wellington City’s population now at 210,800 with Tauranga on 161,000 and Hamilton on 192,100. The 2024 Census found Wellington was the only city not to grow.
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The strategy called for four lanes from Ōtaki to Wellington. This has not just been achieved but Waka Kotahi NZTA is now pushing to north of Levin.
We would have new interchanges at Waikanae (done), Linden (done), Tawa (not done but one slightly north), Paekākāriki and Papakōwhai. The latter two were ultimately bypassed by Transmission Gully, which opened in 2022 and is already being repaired, with recent confirmation the true cost has doubled to $2.5 billion.
It was predicted 30% of the population would now use public transport and the bus and rail systems would be fast and efficient, but working at maximum capacity. The 2023 Census put public transport use at about 15%.
Greater Wellington regional councillor Ros Connelly recently warned immigration rule changes could mean bus “chaos” in 2026 if migrant bus drivers couldn’t stay.
It predicted petrol would cost $3.80 a litre ‒ it is now more than $1 cheaper ‒ and foresaw mass migration to the city. Wellington City’s population has grown by 28,000 in the two decades since.
The plan predicted we would now be looking at extending the inner city bypass underground to, and below, the Basin Reserve and to a double-barrelled Mt Victoria tunnel. The Terrace Tunnel would have been widened. The current Government is now planning a drastically changed version of this.
It said we would have by now passed a law allowing congestion charging on existing roads and Wellington would now be earning $45m a year ($700m since it was supposedly introduced in 2008) for inner city congestion charging.
The Land Transport Management (Time of Use Charging) Amendment Bill, allowing congestion charging, passed its third reading in Parliament in November.
Buses, including trolley buses, would supposedly now be the fastest way to get around town with bus lanes through the city. Trolley buses were ditched in 2017 but bus lanes are now through much of the Golden Mile and beyond.
Cycleways now, as predicted, lace the region’s road network with more in the works.
On State Highway 2, the predicted Kaitoke to Te Mārua roading upgrade was done, a Remutaka Hill Rd realignment has been done on the Wellington side, and new interchanges have been built at Haywards, and just started at Melling.
We were supposed to have an integrated public transport ticketing system ‒ still promised ‒ and a “fast, modern and popular train system”.
We were to now be discussing replacing the Johnsonville train line with light rail to the city and along the waterfront (partly to service a high rise building boom on Ngaio, Khandallah and Newlands), and possibly to the eastern suburbs. Light rail, albeit along a different route, was scrapped by the current Government.
Connelly, who chairs the regional council’s transport committee, said the 2004 plan was written when there was regional consensus about “congestion-busting initiatives”
“Since then, this consensus seems to have fractured,” she said.
The latest version of the strategy, the 2024 Regional Land Transport Plan, prioritised projects in roading, public transport and walking and cycling. But they needed government funding and most got declined in favour of more roading, stating with a second Mount Victoria tunnel and cutting money for public transport.
“If we really want the utopian future outlined in the article (a fast, modern and popular rail system) we need to deliver a more balanced transport funding regime,” she said.