PM parades his lack of political instincts as war rumbles on and fuel squeeze tightens
Thursday, 9 April 2026
Janet Wilson is a regular opinion contributor and a freelance journalist who has also worked in communications, including with the National Party.
OPINION: Let's stop being Pollyanna about it; despite the two-week ceasefire, this war isn't going to end anytime soon.
Trump, who over Easter injected a whole new meaning into the phrase “Trump Derangement Syndrome”, may declare victory any day, but the Iranians will continue to have a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.
Strategically Iran has morphed from its weak military position into one of strength as it effectively holds the rest of the world’s oil supplies to ransom.
Which means that we face the growing likelihood of severe disruption to not only all forms of oil supply – petrol, diesel, jet fuel – but also fertiliser and everything else we import.
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An instinctively good prime minister, particularly one who was cratering in the polls, would view this as the circuit-breaking gift it is. A chance to reassure and unite an anxious nation with a clear plan of how we’re going to get through this rising calamity which voters, in turn, will show their gratitude for come election day.
Except Christopher Luxon doesn’t possess political instincts of any note, marking his leadership as not-so-good.
As Air New Zealand continues to cancel regional flights due to fuel costs, and even smaller trucking companies are paying $1000 extra a day for diesel, Luxon has opted to speak down to the electorate as the Government adopts a policy of “let the market decide”.
There’s no doubt that the market will dictate our behaviour as increasing prices result in fewer trips and as teachers and parents car-pool, but there’s no unity in that strategy, just everyone for themselves.
While other countries around the world adopt four-day working weeks (Pakistan and the Philippines), or introduce free public transport (Australia’s states of Victoria and Tasmania), or in the case of the European Union, instructs its member states to prepare for a prolonged disruption, Luxon’s message was, “please don't think, ‘it's Covid 2.0, I'm making sourdough at home again’ ”.
It’s this fear, to the point of paranoia, that underlies his leadership now; that in trying not to make the mistakes of Covid – avoiding mentions of lockdowns, keeping schools open, even, laughably, not using the Beehive theatrette for stand ups – that Luxon and the coalition are making fresh blunders of their own.
A week ago, as bank economist Kelly Eckhold suggested diesel allocation should be prioritised, the Hustler-in-Chief was advising us to “keep working, keep the kids in school”. Just the usual dismissiveness from the Prime Minister in a crisis, when the country is crying out for comfort and some confidence that we can get through this, yet not receiving anything resembling that.
Luxon’s haphazard leadership skills were also on display last Thursday when he abruptly announced a Cabinet reshuffle that promoted the good alongside the poorly performing, but demoted and defanged some of the best and brightest in his Cabinet.
It was the Revenge Reshuffle served up with a side-order of loyalists circling-the-wagons. Those same loyalists had allegedly warned Luxon he was losing caucus support the Sunday before, which provided the haphazard motivation for this announcement.
Chris Penk’s elevation into Cabinet, taking Judith Collins’ defence portfolio, the intelligence agencies and space was well-deserved, but giving Penny Simmonds Shane Reti’s portfolios of science and tertiary education, when only two years prior she’d been sacked as disability minister is, frankly, rewarding mediocrity.
Malice fuelled Luxon’s motivation in dealing to Chris Bishop; not only did he lose his associate sports portfolio but also two important internal roles, leader of the House and National’s campaign chair; while being handed the attorney general’s role from Judith Collins. The move in combination effectively sidelines him by taking away his power base while adding a bigger workload in one fell swoop.
That power has now been concentrated in Simeon Brown’s hands; not only does he add campaign chair to his CV but also energy minister, with the incumbent, Simon Watts, only learning of his demotion the day of the announcement.
While Luxon may believe he’s nipped a potential leadership challenge in the bud, there’s every chance he may have fanned the flames of resentment which reignites it.
Sure, Auckland MPs are happy that Bishop has been put in his place given that his Auckland housing reforms have caused them headaches, but this ill-advised reshuffle, coming just seven months before November 7, does not depict Luxon as the man who boasts constantly about his people management skills.
It paints a picture of a leader who instead of getting his cabinet aiming for excellence, will settle for getting control over his party’s factions.
Instead of acting out of fair judgement, he acts out of fear and bearing a grudge.
Behind that fear lies the polls; this month’s Taxpayer Union-Curia poll, released on Tuesday, showed National was up 1.4 points but still under 30 at 29.8%.
The right-bloc could comfortably govern with 65-seats, largely at the behest of NZ First which rose 3.9 points and could claim 17 seats in the House.
Luxon may have quelled an uprising for the moment, but his consistently poor performance suggests it won’t be the last time.
It’s now a question of whether that happens before the election or after.