Trump’s Iran escalation language a ‘genocidal threat’

Wednesday, 8 April 2026

US President Donald Trump has made a “genocidal threat” with his remarks that “a whole civilisation will die” in Iran - and faces no good options to end the latest round of Middle Eastern conflict.

That’s the view of international law expert and Waikato University Professor Al Gillespie.

He also sounded an ominous warning to those already worried about spiking fuel costs: “They [Iran] have not yet started to really try to block the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea, in terms of what they’re theoretically capable of”.

“Trump’s mess is extreme,” said Gillespie.

“There are no good alternatives. Option one, Trump keeps threatening and actually escalates having talked himself into a frenzy and a fear of looking weak if he does not carry-through.

“Option two, he accepts some kind of mediation from a third party like Pakistan – even though Iran and America have very different ideas of what a deal looks like – and he tries to convince the world he has actually won.

“Option three; he walks away and leaves the mess for all of the other nations to try to clean up- which will allow Israel to stay in a state of perpetual war against many of its neighbours – and a worsening global economic crisis.”

As far as Iran’s options, he said that at present “Tehran remains impervious”.

“As Trump’s threats escalate, they appear almost stoical in getting their reply ready,” he said.

“They have not yet started to really try to block the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea, in terms of what they are theoretically capable of.

“I expect their capacities, and willingness to inflict pain on America and Trump’s allies, will not be in the form of gentlemanly conduct. Aside from their race towards actual nuclear weapons, the risk of ‘dirty bombs’ with the nuclear materials they already possess should not be discounted.”

Gillespie also said Trump’s threat that “a whole civilisation will die” if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened “is a genocidal threat”.

“This is because he is showing his ‘intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such… deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part’ [article II(c) of the Genocide Convention].”

While Gillespie said Iranian use of their uranium via ‘dirty bombs’ could not be ruled out, he said that at present Trump has not threatened weapons of mass destruction, as did Putin in Ukraine.

“However, the trajectory of threats is upwards.”

Gillespie also said a diplomatic solution to the crisis did not appear to be on the horizon.

“The failure of the UN Security Council to obtain a binding resolution authorising the Use of Force (beneath blue UN helmets) is a problem,” he said.

“This means that a multilateral solution to this problem will not be forthcoming soon. The vetoes of China and Russia are becaus e- Iran will let oil tankers to China pass through the Strait; Russia now has powerful sanctions relief as it can again sell its oil much easier; Trump is in a real mess.

“Both Moscow and Beijing have studied Napoleon and know his dictum – Never interrupt your enemy when is making a mistake,” he said.

Gillespie also looked back at another past conflict.

“I always find the British advice, during the Blitz, to ‘keep calm and carry on’ to be useful at times like this.”