Poll suggests National headed to one-term Government

Tuesday, 22 July 2025

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is laying out his assessment of New Zealand's place in the world, and highlighting his strong focus on trade during his 10 days overseas, where he visited China, Belgium and the Netherlands.

New political polling has the National Party headed towards one term in power, with a majority thinking the country is on the “wrong track”, disapproving of the Government’s performance and a near majority believing it is time to “give another party a go”.

The Talbot Mills polling for commercial clients, obtained by The Post, is similar to some other polls in recent months in that it shows a marginal Labour-led coalition could govern, if an election were to produce these results. Talbot Mills is also Labour’s pollster.

Concerning for the National-led coalition Government is the response to broader questions, including that 76% thought the economy was “not so good” or “poor” and 23% considered it “good” or “excellent”. Some 21% expected the economy to get better in the year ahead, while 37% thought it would get worse.

A slight majority, 51%, believed the country was on the wrong track, and the same number disapproved of the Government’s performance. While 38% believed the Government deserved to be re-elected, 48% thought it was time to give another party a go.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon when speaking to the media at the end of May.

Within the coalition, ACT supporters were more inclined to believe National deserved a second term, with 67% agreeing and 13% disagreeing with this. NZ First supporters were nearly equally divided, 40% thought National deserved re-election and 43% did not.

Some 40% thought Labour was ready to govern and 39% said it was not ready.

“It is not that pretty a picture” for the Government, the polling report said.

Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour put the result down to it being “the middle of winter” and the economy being “tough”.

“It’s not that surprising that people are down on the Government, but they’ll also be judging us on the results of our policies in a year’s time.

“The work we’re doing now, cutting red tape, saving money, spreading a bit of positivity, is a very good contrast with the Opposition, who’ve got lots of criticism but [take] no responsibility for getting us in this mess, and no ideas of their own.”

Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the result was encouraging for him “but we know we’ve still got more work to do”.

“This Government was elected saying that they were going to fix the cost of living crisis, and it's getting worse for New Zealand families, and Christopher Luxon and his government are in denial about that.”

Polls of recent months have confirmed there is tight competition for public support between the coalition Government and the left-bloc of Labour, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori.

A Taxpayers’ Union poll published earlier in July had the Coalition Government ahead at 65 seats to the left-bloc’s 57, with National at 33.9% and NZ First at a high of 9.8%.

A Freshwater Strategy-The Post poll in June had the Coalition with a thin majority, also with NZ First gaining, and National at 32%.

The Talbot Mills poll has tended to have a National-ACT-NZ First coalition ahead, though the poll suggested support for a Labour-led Government in its February and March results.

This remained the case in this newly obtained poll, which had Labour at 35%, National at 32%, the Green Party at 12%, ACT at 8%, NZ First at 7% and Te Pāti Māori at 3.8%.

Assuming Te Pāti Māori retained the six Māori electorates -- which is not a given as a by-election for Tāmaki Makaurau nears -- such a result would give a Labour-led Government the balance of power.

The poll also showed a majority deemed the coalition Government as having taken steps towards progress on reducing crime, improving infrastructure and fixing the economy.

On reducing cost of living pressures, a majority, 56%, considered the Government had either taken steps that won’t help or had “not done much if anything”. Similar majorities were negative on the Government’s performance in improving the health system and ensuring affordable housing.

The popularity of Luxon, the prime minister, and Hipkins, the Labour leader, on the “preferred prime minister” question was neck-and-neck, with each leader receiving support from 24% of those polled.

NZ First leader Winston Peters was also preferred as deputy prime minister by more people. He had the support of 46% of people polled, whereas David Seymour -- who became deputy prime minister in June -- was backed by 20%, and 34% were unsure.

Aside from ACT, the supporters of every other political party preferred Peters as deputy. He was rated as at least “good” in the role by 34% of people surveyed, as “average” by 31%, and as “poor” by 24%.

The poll was taken across the first 10 days of July. In total a nationally representative sample of 1090 people 18-years and older were surveyed online, producing a result with a 3.1% margin of error.