National’s Christopher Luxon problem is now impossible to ignore

Thursday, 16 October 2025

ANALYSIS: The grinding unpopularity of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has been laid clear in the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll with Infrastructure NZ.

Half of all voters (49%) think that the National Party should sub out Luxon, while Minister for Transport Chris Bishop is his favoured replacement.

The first number is incredibly high. Voters whose preferred parties are in opposition often want the government chucked out in favour of their team, but they usually want stability and rarely want a prime minister to just be replaced.

While the reasons for it will be many and complex, it is a damning indictment on Luxon’s performance.

Nearly 22% of voters would consider voting for the National Party if Luxon were removed as leader, while Bishop holds broader appeal among those who might vote for National but are currently voting for other Coalition parties.

Even among National Party voters, nearly a quarter wanted Luxon removed as leader.

These are devastating numbers for the prime minister, but also highly unusual. It reflects weakness at the top of the Government, the economy and is also probably reflective of the relative strength of the other coalition partners. That is also reflected in this poll.

Bishop leads narrowly as the alternative to Luxon, but it is a clear lead. And if Luxon were to be replaced as leader, a big part, if not the biggest part, of the attraction of a new leader would be their popularity.

It makes sense. He is one of the Government’s most competent ministers, is a clear communicator and one of the best exponents of the plan that ties three disparate parties together in the Coalition.

Behind Bishop, if Luxon were to go, the contenders in order are Education Minister Erica Stanford, followed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Health Minister Simeon Brown.

Bamboozlement and annoyance

Within government ranks there is both bamboozlement and annoyance at what ministers see as a pretty good Government that can't get ahead, struggles to work smoothly together and in which the Government's message struggles to get cut-through.

The fact that the economy has been shrinking per person for a couple of years now also underlines the fundamental challenge.

There is unhappiness with how the Government is tracking, and embarrassment in the National Party ranks that they are behind a Labour Party they regard as hopeless.

And of all of the potential replacements, none have been openly canvassing votes or doing anything like that — yet.

Luxon seemed taken aback when asked about the polls on his way into the House on Wednesday before delivering a pretty nervy performance. He is a man possessed of supreme self-confidence and is not used to failure. Now the question is whether he is capable of a course correction.

But clearly there is now real pressure. In addition to the various insights on The Post/Freshwater Poll, there have now also been the Curia Research Taxpayers’ Union Poll, as well as the new Anacta Talbot Mills corporate poll. Both had the National Party even lower on 29%.

Struggled to connect

But the issue for Luxon and now the thing that National in particular has to grapple with is the trend. National has been consistently falling in the polls since the high point of the election to a point where it is teetering.

And much of that appears to be down to Luxon, who has simply struggled to connect with the public in any meaningful way. The numbers on that are pretty clear, even if the reasons for it are contested and up for debate. It is difficult to put a finger on exactly why.

These numbers should be food for thought for a National Party which for the first time since 1997 may well have to consider its leadership options while in Government.

The ninth floor will be banking on economic data coming right, and it may well do. Respect can be earned over time and perceived competence rewarded. But this particular recession has surprised on the downside. You wouldn’t want to bank on it.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure NZ interviewed n=1050 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between October 3-8, 2025. Margin of error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.