The summer Christopher Luxon would rather forget
Sunday, 22 February 2026
Tracy Watkins is editor of The Post and Sunday Star-Times
OPINION: Political lore has it that barbecue season is a dangerous time for unpopular leaders. Swapping opinions around the grill has a way of hardening views.
Blame it on a poor summer or the cost of sausages, but the holiday chatter hasn't been kind to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. People ended 2025 grumpy and they’ve started 2026 even grumpier.
Prices continue to climb, pay packets aren't keeping pace, and the Christmas credit card bills are now due. For many, the “green shoots” the Government keeps hailing have not improved their own circumstances. So, they’re blaming National.
According to the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll, the PM’s favourability rating took a significant hit over the break. His personal approval tumbled 14 points since December. Since August 2023, Luxon has dropped a total of 25 points on this metric.
Luxon might take some heart from the fact that Labour leader Chris Hipkins also took a slide; his approval has fallen steadily from a net +17% in 2023 to -1% today.
But Hipkins remains a country mile ahead on favourability, holding a 24-point lead over the PM.
For a first-term incumbent, that gap should be ringing alarm bells in the National caucus. Only ACT’s David Seymour is currently more unpopular than Luxon.
National MPs are not oblivious. The alarm bells have reached a crescendo, yet the party remains paralysed. Replacing a first-term PM months out from an election is a high-stakes gamble that seasoned operators almost always advise against. The prevailing wisdom is to hold tight: the theory is that an improving economy and falling interest rates will eventually do the heavy lifting.
But it’s a nail-biting ride to polling day for National MPs who could be out of a job in November - a reality that holds true even if National is returned to power. Because on current polling that will only happen thanks to a resurgent NZ First.
That prospect is equally dangerous for Luxon. A stronger Winston Peters means fewer Crown limos and Beehive offices for National’s rank and file. Peters is a master negotiator; if he holds the balance of power, he will extract plum portfolios for his own team. It is a game he plays better than anyone.
This is a structural problem for Luxon. Contrary to public opinion, MPs aren’t just there to put bums on seats - they want the big jobs and the chance to drive real change. A second term in power without a Cabinet portfolio is a deeply unattractive prospect, especially if a third term looks like an even bigger ask.
It doesn't just stall ministerial ambitions, it kills career prospects. A CV extolling nine years as a backbencher is rarely a pathway to the corporate boards or directorships they aspire to.
The longer National’s polling gets stuck in the low 30s - or even lower - the more restless the caucus will get.
National’s woes aren't entirely Luxon’s fault. The Government has struggled to find its footing amidst a stubborn recession. While they may have inherited the conditions from Labour, public opinion has solidified around the view that the coalition's management has made things worse, not better.
Had Luxon been a more effective communicator, voters might have bought into the “worse before it gets better” narrative. Instead, they’ve stopped buying the excuses.
The whirlwind of announcements and backtracks in recent days - from the poorly handled billion-dollar LNG levy (dubbed a “gas tax” by critics) to the retreat on Chris Bishop’s Auckland housing plan, and flip-flops on paywave fees and four-year terms - points to a government in panic mode.
But Luxon’s biggest challenge is overcoming a public that has already begun to tune him out. There’s another piece of political lore the Nats will be heeding - once voters have taken the phone off the hook, it’s hard to get them to pick up again.