National struggles for traction as NZ First gains ground

Thursday, 19 February 2026

As the election year begins, Labour holds a steady lead while National is struggling to gain traction in government, according to the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand.

The poll shows Labour on 37%, down one point since December but up 10 points since the 2023 election.

National remains stalled at 30%, unchanged from last month and down eight points since the last election.

Read more

• The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll: The Coalition clings, but National bleeds

• Who is up and who is down as Parliament wraps up for the year?

• Big names at risk as Labour pulls ahead and Christopher Luxon loses ground

That’s despite a high profile state of the nation speech last month, in which Prime Minister Christopher Luxon promised to forge ahead with a programme of “bold reforms” and pitched for more National ministers in next year’s government.

Hipkins continues to hold the lead as preferred prime minister at 46%, up one point since December, while Luxon has fallen to 34%, giving Hipkins a 12-point advantage, his largest since August 2023.

Meanwhile, NZ First continues to rise, climbing two points from December, to 11% while ACT has slipped to 6%.

The pattern suggests some conservative voters are drifting from David Seymour’s party to Winston Peters.

The Greens also got a two point bump to 10%, Te Pāti Māori sits at 2%, and other parties make up 3% of the vote.

“While National’s support has slid from a peak of nearly 38% in early 2024 to just 30% today, it has plateaued there since mid-last year,” said Tim Hurdle, Freshwater Strategy's New Zealand collaborator. “What the party has not achieved is any upward momentum.

“Labour has maintained a steady, upward climb, successfully overtaking National in mid-2025 to reach its current high of 37%. This can’t be attributed to any one action, but probably reflects the dissatisfaction with the economy.”

The numbers underscore the challenge facing the coalition as it tries to convince households the worst of the downturn has passed, he said.

But Labour’s support also appears soft and volatile. “This poll is the first time we have seen them stay consistent across two polls.”

He said the coalition government needs to balance “the desire to look competent with their own desire to win back votes.”

“National needs to build back faith in its competence as fiscal and economic managers.

“That might require some fights with coalition partners on issues like the India Free Trade Agreement, infrastructure or regulation.”

The broader mood remains sour. A majority of voters (55%) believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, a figure that has ticked up by three points since the end of last year.

Relief from cost of living pressures is also climbing the political agenda, with nearly two-thirds of voters now identifying it as their top priority.

The overhang question

According to the Electoral Commission’s seat calculator, these numbers translate to a Parliament with Labour on 46 seats, National 43, NZ First 14, Greens 12, ACT 6 and TPM on 6.

National would have no list spots returning meaning heavyweights like Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith would be dumped from Parliament.

There are key caveats. This calculation assumes all incumbent seats are held on election night.

But swings away from National suggest it could lose key electorates, reducing its seat tally. And internal conflicts and declining party vote support for Te Pāti Māori means it is unlikely to retain six Māori seats.

How many electorates it manages to hold could shift the balance of power in Parliament. An “overhang” is created when a party wins more electorate seats than its share of the party vote justifies. Parliament must expand to accommodate these extra members.

This scenario played out in 2023 when two overhang seats for Te Pāti Māori and a delayed by-election for Port Waikato pushed the total number of MPs to 123.

The following projections for this poll assume that every party wins seats roughly in line with its share of the party vote and secures at least one electorate seat, excluding NZ First.

If Te Pāti Māori secures four electorate seats, the right-bloc would hold the balance of power, with 65 seats to the left’s 62, in a 127-seat Parliament.

And if it won only one electorate, the current coalition would have a four-seat majority.

The direction of the country

A majority of voters think the country is heading in the wrong direction, up 3 points since December.

Relieving cost of living pressures has increased further, now a key priority for 63% of voters ( up 7 points since December).

Peters said people feel overlooked, while taking a crack at National.

“When you misread the state of the economy and promise to fix it 'Well, you said you could fix it, so why haven't you?' That was always a mistake.

“…The difference is that New Zealand First is out there talking about the real issues—the basic issues that concern New Zealanders.

“They feel that they've been forgotten and overlooked, and our job is to make sure that they're part of the mainstream political response.”

Asked about his falling personal popularity, Luxon said he remained focused on delivering reforms rather than polling.

“We’ve got a lot of work to continue to fix the basics,” he said. “When you think about the work we’re taking on with reforming our education system, which I’m really proud about, reforming our consenting and planning laws under the RMA, proposing new ideas about how we lift our savings and investment rates — we’re doing things to build the future.”

Luxon declined to engage with the poll directly, saying: “There’s lots of polls, lots of polls every day, every week. I don’t comment on polls. I’m focused on growing our economy.”

He pointed to efforts to attract major events and boost spending, saying it was “great that we’ve opened up major events and got things like State of Origin, with people spending money”.

Hipkins rejected suggestions Labour risked losing momentum once its plans were unveiled, saying the party is focused on listening to voters and understanding the pressures households were facing.

“As we get closer to the election, we’ll be talking more about how we would do things differently. But we’re still living in a volatile time, and the Government has a lot of decisions to make in the next six months.”

Labour would continue to hold back most of its policy detail until closer to the election, arguing it was too early to lock in commitments before the Government’s Budget set the financial parameters for the next term, he added.

He accused the Government of being out of touch with the pressures facing families, saying many households were not feeling any recovery.

“For most New Zealand families, things are not getting better. Their incomes aren’t keeping up with their costs. Power bills are up, groceries are up, and jobs are harder to find.”

Seymour rejected the suggestion that ACT voters were drifting to NZ First. “I see 262 days to the election and we've really only just started talking about what we might offer this election on Sunday after your poll finished,” referencing his State of the Nation address earlier this week.

Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1039 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between February 6-12, 2026. Margin of Error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll is funded by Infrastructure NZ to encourage debate about issues that are important to the future of New Zealand.