Christopher Luxon faces crunch week as Iran crisis continues
Monday, 9 March 2026
AGENDA: Christopher Luxon heads back to Wellington this week with a lot weighing on him.
The Middle East war is continuing into its second week, meaning the country’s nascent economic recovery could once more be cut down by factors far outside of his control, with petrol prices heading towards $3/litre.
And a nasty poll from his own pollster on Friday placed new questions around Luxon’s leadership of the National Party, questions that will undoubtedly be asked of both him and his caucus as they meet in Parliament this week.
Meanwhile the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s deployment of two planes to the Middle East to help stranded Kiwis could make some more headlines this week, and a big anniversary looms on Sunday.
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Monday - Post cabinet press conference, Peters returns
Cabinet will meet on Monday meaning the Prime Minister will hold his regular post-cabinet press conference on Monday afternoon, usually at around 4pm.
Luxon will be looking to retake the narrative after a somewhat flubbed press conference last week, where he said New Zealand would back “any action” that stopped Iran getting a nuke, then had to walk back his comments the next day.
His foreign affairs minister Winston Peters is arriving back into the country from a week in Latin America but not in time for the post-Cabinet news conference.
Two NZDF C-130 Hercules aircraft have been deployed — one left Auckland on Saturday, a second is being redeployed from South Korea — and we will learn more this week about the scope of the mission. About 3000 New Zealanders are registered with SafeTravel in the region. Flights will initially shuttle people to a safe third country rather than direct to New Zealand.
There was some slight signs of a lessening of tensions on Sunday, with Iran’s president suggesting that it might stop attacking neighbouring countries if they stopped allowing the US to use bases in their countries.
Monday will also see the Environment Select Committee hold all-day hearings on the two bills set to replace the Resource Management Act, with heavyweight submitters such as: BusinessNZ, WWF, Transpower, Energy Resources Aotearoa, Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu, the Canterbury and Bay of Plenty regional councils, Hamilton City Council, Meridian, and Heritage New Zealand.
Tuesday - Parliament sits - and caucuses meet
Parliament will sit on Tuesday and given the pressure on Luxon it is quite possible you will see various National MPs “doorstepped” on their way into the building in the morning - that is, stopped and asked questions by reporters.
The media will have a proper chance to ask questions of both Labour and National MPs as they file into their caucus meetings on Tuesday morning.
The House will sit from 2pm with Question Time and then a return to the Government’s very busy legislative agenda.
Also on Tuesday the final Royal Commission report on the Covid response is being tabled in the House. This could put a negative spotlight on Labour leader Christopher Hipkins.
Wednesday - Select Committees and the House
Wednesday is a busy Parliamentary day with select committees and “Member’s Night” - the chance for individual MPs to get bills passed.
The Finance and Expenditure committee will hear from submitters on the Infrastructure Funding and Financing Amendment Bill, while the Governance and Administration committee holds its annual review of Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ), which is likely to be fiery given the continued tensions between FENZ and the Firefighters’ Union.
The House sits from 2pm as usual.
Thursday - Energy breakfast
Business NZ’s Energy Council is holding a ministerial breakfast in Wellington on Thursday and the war in the Middle East is likely to be a huge factor.
The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about one fifth of the world’s oil, has been essentially shut by Iran, although the US is looking to reopen it in some fashion. While New Zealand doesn’t get much oil from this source it will still feel the ramifications of the global shortage.
Elsewhere on Thursday the House and select committees will meet, although Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Luxon will be out of town visiting the country.
Sunday - March 15 anniversary
Sunday is the 7th anniversary of the March 15 terror attack.
It is unclear at this stage if the Prime Minister or other political leaders will attend any events to commemorate the tragedy, in which 51 people worshipping at two mosques in Christchurch were killed by a white supremacist gunman.
Watching brief
The High Court's judgment in the Mariameno Kapa-Kingi case could land any day. Justice Radich heard the substantive case on February 2 — in which Kapa-Kingi challenged her expulsion from Te Pāti Māori — and reserved his decision, promising to treat it as a priority.
A ruling in her favour would force a reckoning inside the party at an already difficult moment; a ruling against her would leave her as an independent MP in an election year with no obvious political home.
We’re also still awaiting Labour’s decision on the India FTA - although the party in turn says it is still waiting for the Government to substantially respond to its concerns.
There’s also the strong possibility of another poll dropping. Labour’s internal pollsters Talbot Mills do a monthly poll for corporate clients that usually manages to leak not long after the start of the month.