Luxon under fire: majority of voters want National leader out
Sunday, 8 March 2026
More than half of voters – 51% – want Christopher Luxon replaced as National Party leader, according to the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll.
The poll shows growing public appetite for a shake-up at the top of the party, just as the party hits its lowest support under him. A separate Taxpayers’ Union/Curia survey, released on Friday, gave National just 28.4%
That bombshell number has sparked fresh speculation about the future of Luxon’s premiership.
About one third (36%) of respondents to the Freshwater Strategy poll believe that Luxon should continue to be leader, though that has decreased by two points since last October.
Read more:
National in turmoil: Luxon on the brink as party searches for a reset
Christopher Luxon’s Iran problem: Between Trump and the rules-based order
The push for change is coming mainly from outside National’s core base.
Labour (69%), Green (73%), and Te Pāti Māori (87%) supporters are the most vocal in calling for new leadership, while National (67%) and ACT (60%) voters continue to back Luxon, suggesting his support remains solid among the party faithful.
If a leadership change were to occur, transport and infrastructure minister Chris Bishop is the front-runner, preferred by 18% of voters.
Since October, preference for Bishop has increased by two points, and he is is currently the preferred choice for a replacement across all voter groups.
Emergency Management and Police Minister Mark Mitchell has gained momentum, rising four points to 9%, while Nicola Willis and Erica Stanford remain under consideration but show little movement. Finance Minister Willis on 11% is just one point ahead of Stanford.
The education minister experienced one of the sharpest declines, with her preference dropping by 2 points in five months.
Curia’s poll was conducted from Sunday March 1 to Tuesday March 3 , taking in Luxon’s fumbled response to questions about the conflict in Iran.
It also showed: Labour on 34.4% (+0.3 on the month earlier); Greens on 10.5 (+0.2), NZ First on 9.8 (-0.8) and ACT: 7.5% (0.8).
In the preferred prime minister stakes, Curia reported Labour’s Chris Hipkins rose 4.7 points to 22.7%, while Luxon dropped 1.0 point to 21.0%.
Details leaked on Thursday night as party insiders grappled with the troubling numbers. If translated into votes at November’s general election, it would leave National with just 36 seats, meaning nearly a dozen staring down the barrel of leaving Parliament.
The runners and riders
If the National Party were to change leaders before the next election, voters identified the following preferences:
Chris Bishop: 18% preference , up 2 points since October. He is considered the best option across all voter groups.
Nicola Willis: 11% preference , showing no change since October.
Erica Stanford: 10% preference , down 2 points since October.
Mark Mitchell: 9% preference , up 4 points since October.
Simeon Brown: 9% preference , up 1 point since October.
Shane Reti: 5% preference , down 2 points since October.
Someone Else: 6% of voters would prefer a different candidate.
Unsure: 31% of voters are unsure who should take over.
Freshwater Strategy interviewed 1039 eligible New Zealand voters aged 18+ online between February 6–12, 2026. Margin of error ±3%. Data weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll is funded by Infrastructure NZ to encourage debate about issues important to the future of New Zealand.