Labour’s road to redemption in the Māori seats: Can it win back the voters who so decisively ditched it?
Sunday, 10 May 2026
Chris Hipkins kept the crowd waiting nearly 20 minutes at Takapūwāhia Marae on Wednesday, where he was set to announce the final Labour candidate for the seven Māori seats it once dominated.
The Labour leader’s lateness was slight but did not go unnoticed. Many have felt Labour has taken its support from Māori voters for granted in the past - and it is entering this election on the backfoot in this Māori seat and five others.
The party’s road to redemption after a bruising defeat in 2023 is by all accounts running on schedule with the wider electorate. Its policy platform might seem meagre but the ideas and tone it’s pitching are clearly resonating with voters; polling on its party vote has steadily risen to the mid 30s across the term.
But it remains unclear how far that recovery has translated into the Māori seats, where Te Pāti Māori (TPM) almost achieved a clean sweep in 2023 - winning six of the seven seats. The landslide loss indicated widespread sentiment Māori roll voters were not happy with Labour’s offering.
Even as the party’s wider polling has recovered it’s failed at its major test in these seats this term: the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election last September. Labour’s Peeni Henare was decisively beaten by TPM’s Oriini Kaipara, even as scandal began to engulf her party. TPM’s ‘two-for-one MPs’ argument gave it a clear advantage in this seat - and it may retain this argument in November’s contest.
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Labour’s now regrouped, restrategised and put up a suite of impressive candidates in each of the Māori electorates. With Labour attempting an ambitious comeback, Te Pāti Māori fighting for its survival and a few Green candidates in the mix, those on the Māori roll have options. Who will they choose?
Political parties of all stripes have long struggled to meet Māori aspirations - something TPM capitalised on in Election 2023. It successfully pitched itself as an unapologetic advocate for its people. Three years on, Labour is asking voters to consider what this advocacy has actually got them.
“Like general seat voters, Māori seat voters were voting for what they thought might be a change and they haven't got it,” Labour’s only Māori seat holder Cushla Tangaere-Manuel (Ikaroa-Rāwhiti) told The Sunday Star Times.
“My message about why Labour's pursuing the seven Maori seats: it's one thing to have several Māori in Parliament but it's another to have several Māori in government and that's what we're going for, especially Māori who hold seats and are therefore directly accountable to Māori voters.”
A string of senior Māori Labour MPs have quit politics since Election 2023 when Labour lost most of the Māori seats; Nanaia Mahuta, Rino Tirikatene, Kelvin Davis, Adrian Rurawhe and Peeni Henare. The run of resignations was a huge loss for Labour’s Māori caucus, but also offered an opportunity for a refresh, Hipkins said.
“This election marks a significant renewal of our Māori candidates and in the Māori electorates…[those who’ve quit] are all still part of the Labour whānau but they've decided that their contribution now is going to be outside of Parliament. We need some new energy, some new ideas in our team in Parliament to continue forward a mahi [work] that is so important to the whole country.”
Part of that mahi, Hipkins told the small crowd in Porirua this week, was working together to promote unity. New Zealand was sitting on the precipice of a pivotal moment for Māori-Crown relations, he said.
“One of the main questions that we're going to have at this election as a country is, do we want to build on the progress we've been able to make over the last 30 or 40 years in terms of the relationship between Māori and non-Māori, or do we want to turn our backs on that progress? Because for the last three years, that's what it's felt like from this government.”
Labour not tailoring messaging for Māori seats yet
Labour has clearly picked up on sentiment Māori-Crown relations have deteriorated over the term, even as TPM politically dominated the hīkoi against the Treaty Principles Bill. But Labour’s core messaging has been focused on a wider suite of issues. Its candidates have been driving the ‘Jobs, Health, Homes’ mantra for months; a direct response to a perception its focus previously drifted too far from the electorate’s key concerns.
Victoria University Associate Professor of Politics Lara Greaves said Labour’s relentless focus on the cost of living would likely carry on into the Māori seats.
“We can expect Labour’s campaign to really lean into the cost of living message, the economy, economic inequality, whatever you want to call it. That’s what we can expect there, and for that to be played up in the Māori electorates too.”
Labour ran a ‘seat only’ campaign in the 2017 Election in which all of its candidates went off the list. This meant that their only chance of entering or re-entering Parliament was winning the seat itself, eliminating any “two for one” messaging from the then Māori Party. This bold move paid off: Labour won all seven seats; wiping out the Māori Party.
It hopes to replicate this sweeping victory again in November - but is not clear on whether any of its candidates will go off the list. When The Post put this notion to Māori campaign chair Willie Jackson last year he suggested it would be “stupid” to do this again.
Greaves said it would be an unpredictable election in the Māori seats.
“It feels like a bit of a cop out to say I have no idea what’s going to happen but I just genuinely have no idea what’s going to happen. It’s just so hard to know.”
She said the only publicly available indicator for the Māori seats was national polling that showed support for TPM following its breakdown last year was down but not completely out. The party’s issues - which included a High Court case that reinstated an MP it had tried to expel - were well documented and it would be interesting to see how it performed under the pressure of an election campaign, she said.
The Māori seats are notoriously almost impossible to poll, leading to massive upsets and surprises. Greaves noted some of the results were as much as 30 percentage points out from polling at the last election.
She said TPM’s co-leaders held the biggest majorities in their electorates, but were also both subject to the most scrutiny during the party’s troubles.
“The real question is has the issue been big enough, the problem been big enough that those big majorities, those relationships are severed, people no longer regard them as representing Māori interests and representing that independent Māori voice.”
The risk of wiping out Te Pāti Māori
There is another strategic wrinkle for Labour. Despite the party’s stated desire to retake all seven Māori seats, on current polling this would likely leave them several seats short of retaking Government. This is due to the complexities of the “wasted vote” under MMP. If TPM wins at least one electorate, it would bring in its share of list MPs proportionate to its party vote. If it wins no electorates, any party vote given to it - currently around 2-3% - is “wasted”.
In other words, Labour could well need TPM to win a seat to take power.
Yet TPM has also been seen as the left bloc’s achilles’ heel. Coalition ministers frequently attack Labour for its mere proximity to the party that’s come under intense scrutiny this term over public in-fighting, claims of misconduct, and accusations of a separatist agenda.
Labour has been at pains to distance itself from the party - choosing to focus instead on “a renewal” of its candidates for the Māori seats and positioning these contenders as part of a wider refresh of Labour talent; elevating the electorates to strategic importance.
TPM is yet to confirm its candidates for the Māori seats but there’s no indication those who hold seats won’t stand again.
Waititi said Labour has had its chance to make change for Māori, and failed.
“They failed to enact any transformational policies when they had a super majority. They had the opportunity to enact constitutional protections for Te Tiriti o Waitangi and Māori rights, to fix the tax system so that it would work for all people in Aotearoa, not just the wealthy, and to take drastic action on the climate crisis to create a better world for our mokopuna. Instead, they decided to uphold the broken colonial system that they inherited,” he said.
Ngarewa-Packer said TPM had “suffocated” the Treaty Principles Bill, put a stop to the Trans-Tasman Resources seabed mining bid and been advocating for the Māori roll and the Māori electorates.
“Our message to our voters has never changed: Believe in you, believe in me, believe in Māori. Our people were the driving force behind all these achievements; we need to remember what we’re capable of when we’re not shackled by the infrastructure of these pākehā political parties that were designed to uphold the system that has always oppressed us,” she said.
While Labour poses a real threat to the TPM’s grasp on the seats, it is clear the party will not go down without a fight. And even if it loses all seven seats as it did in 2017, there is nothing stopping it rising once more.
At a glance: Māori seat contests in the 2026 election
Te Tai Tokerau – three-horse race
This seat, roughly analagous to Northland, is one of the most unpredictable. Incumbent Mariameno Kapa-Kingi may stand either as an independent or aligned with Te Pāti Māori, adding uncertainty. Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime and the Greens’ Hūhana Lyndon round out a strong field. Historically, the seat has swung between Labour and Te Pāti Māori; Kapa-Kingi had a small margin over Labour’s Kelvin Davis in 2023. Lyndon ranks 7th on the Greens’ list and Prime may well be on Labour’s list making this a potential “two-for-one” contest.
Tāmaki Makaurau – head to head battle
This Auckland-based seat pits incumbent MP Te Pāti Māori’s Oriini Kaipara against Labour’s Kerrin Leoni. The electorate has a history of flipping: from Pita Sharples (Māori Party) to Labour’s Peeni Henare, before returning to Te Pāti Māori. The 2023 result was extremely tight, with the late Takutai Tarsh Kemp winning by just 42 votes. Kaipara’s by-election victory was far more decisive (6948 to 3429), suggesting strengthened support for Te Pāti Māori though this was bolstered by the “two-for-one” message. Leoni was not endorsed by Labour in her earlier mayoral run.
Hauraki-Waikato – key battleground
This is one of Labour’s top targets. Current MP Te Pāti Māori’s Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke unseated long-time Labour MP Nanaia Mahuta in 2023, winning 12939 votes to Mahuta’s 10028. Maipi-Clarke’s popularity following her haka in the House makes her a fearsome incumbent but Labour candidate Kingi Kiriona is seen as a strong contender. Given the relatively narrow margin last time, this seat is firmly in play and could swing either way.
Waiariki – three horse race in Te Pāti Māori co-leader’s seat
Held by Te Pāti Māori’s co-leader Rawiri Waititi, the Bay of Plenty and central North Island seat Waiariki has seen major swings over the past decade—from Māori Party to Labour and back again. Waititi comfortably won it in 2023 with 21500 votes, far ahead of Labour’s Toni Boynton (5609). However, support for Waititi may have taken a hit this term after a run of Te Pāti Māori controversies. Boynton returns for a second attempt, while Green candidate Tania Waikato - who used to be Te Pāti Māori’s lawyer - adds a third dimension to this race.
Te Tai Hauāuru – Te Pāti Māori under pressure
Incumbent MP Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer won this seat on the West Coast of the North Island decisively in 2023 with a majority of 9162 votes. Labour is fielding a strong challenger in Te Pūoho Kātene and while Ngarewa-Packer benefits from incumbency, internal party tensions and leadership scrutiny could make this race more competitive than the last result suggests.
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti – Labour stronghold, but contested
This seat on the East Coast of the North Island has been reliably Labour since its creation in 1999. Incumbent Cushla Tangaere-Manuel retained it in 2023 with 13747 votes, ahead of Meka Whaitiri (10873), who had defected to Te Pāti Māori. In the 2026 contest, Te Pāti Māori’s Hayley Maxwell and the Greens’ Heath Te Au-Skipworth are in the mix. While Labour remains favoured, the margin is not overwhelming.
Te Tai Tonga – a recent flip to Te Pāti Māori
This South Island and Wellington seat flipped to Te Pāti Māori in 2023 after four terms of Labour control. Tākuta Ferris won with 12828 votes to Rino Tirikatene’s 10004 but now sits as an independent. Labour’s Mananui Ramsden, a leader within Ngāi Tahu enters as a credible challenger, and with Ferris no longer formally aligned with Te Pāti Māori , the vote could fragment. This makes Te Tai Tonga one of the more volatile contests in 2026.