Nicola Willis says she didn’t put the Budget together thinking about ‘next week’s poll’

Monday, 15 June 2026

Finance Minister Nicola Willis says she didn’t frame the Budget around its impact on polling, following the absence of a post‑Budget bump.

National dipped below 30% in the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand, dropping one point from the last results in February.

Election-year Budgets are often viewed as the Government’s best chance to win over public support, but Willis said her thoughts were instead on New Zealand’s future.

“I didn't put the Budget together thinking about what it would do for next week's poll. I was thinking about New Zealand's future,” Willis said.

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“We should all give New Zealanders credit that they understand there is no forested magic money trees, and that the Government does face constrained choices and circumstances,” she said during the post-Cabinet press conference.

The Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll on Friday also showed little sign of a post-Budget bump for National.

The no-frills Budget offered no new cost of living relief but did have some welcome news for Willis ‒ a projected return to surplus one year earlier than expected.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon refused to comment on the poll result.

The Post/Freshwater Strategies poll showed Labour well ahead of National at 35%, but with its partners the Greens sitting at 10% and Te Pati Māori at 2%, the left lack the numbers to come to power.

The results show the coalition would be returned with a narrow majority, assuming all parties that currently hold an electorate seat win at least one again.

Both National and Labour are slightly down ‒ National 1% from its 30% result in February, while Labour has dropped 2% from 37%.

Support is shifting instead to the minor coalition partners, with both NZ First and ACT up, 1% and 2% respectively.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins said he was “very encouraged” by his party’s results, with support growing consistently since the election.

When asked what he would do to grow support for his partners to govern, he said there was still time ‒ more than four and a half months ‒ before the election, and poll results around the Budget shifted significantly last election.

Winston Peters’ party has continued its upward trajectory, climbing slightly from 11% in February to 12% among likely voters in the current poll. His party is up six points from the election.

David Seymour’s ACT Party also gained two points to 8%. That represents a one point drop since the election.

The Green Party has managed to hold ground at 10%, locking in its base despite the slight softening seen by Labour. Overall, the Greens are down two points on the October 2023 result.

At the tail end of the poll, Te Pāti Māori remains steady at 2%.