Election 2026: National lifts trade stakes in direct challenge to NZ First
Monday, 6 July 2026
ANALYSIS: Amid the political racket over the New Zealand India free trade agreement (FTA), the National Party has clearly read the tea leaves and come to one conclusion; the deal is popular with voters - and they may want more.
Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll results in January found the free trade deal with India had strong approval with the public, with voters from every party (bar Te Pāti Māori), approving of it - including NZ First.
The Post’s Freshwater Poll in February has since showed NZ First voters were more pessimistic about it, with 28% supporting the deal, 31% unsure and 41% not in support.
These figures may seem like insignificant if not surprising details considering the NZ First vs National coalition feud over the India FTA, but they may well explain why National has chosen to tout its trade record and effectively say “there’s more where that came from” in its second significant pledge for the 2026 campaign. The party will “commence negotiations” with Brazil, Switzerland, Argentina, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Uruguay and the European Free Trade Association (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway) within the next five years.
New Zealand is a trading nation and National will want to position itself as a proud champion of free trade just a week out from the most significant visit by an international leader since Chinese President Xi Jinping came in 2014.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s time in Auckland on Friday and Saturday is a huge deal (the first Indian PM to visit in 40 years) and National has rightly pointed to New Zealand’s freshly-inked FTA with the world’s fastest growing major economy as proof of both its ambition and ability to deliver.
“We know what we're doing,” party leader Christopher Luxon said on Sunday.
National’s trade election pledge also sends a “we’re on message” message at a time of a lot of political noise over trade that’s largely been driven by NZ First.
NZ First leader Winston Peters has led a concerted campaign of criticism of the FTA since November 2025; his critiques starting at too many immigrants being allowed in under the deal and landing more recently on concern Modi’s government is in the dark over what he calls “covert” efforts to tighten immigration settings for Indian nationals.
The Post reported last week there is concern in some quarters about changes being made public before Modi’s visit and that Peters believes National has misled the Indian administration, risking bilateral relations.
Trade Minister Todd McClay said on Sunday there was “no reason for people to be concerned”, repeating assurances New Zealand will meet all of its obligations to India.
National has seized an opportunity to demonstrate it’s not getting bogged down in the politics of it all in an election year; attempting to paint the noise as a distraction from what really matters.
Of course what really matters is a matter of opinion and if you ask Peters for his, he’ll say “transparency”.
He maintains secret papers sent to his office prove Immigration Minister Erica Stanford has made the call to tighten immigration settings in a way that does not honour the NZ-India FTA.
“Whatever it is now, it’s not what they told Modi, [Indian Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush] Goyal and the Indian people,” Peters told The Post on Sunday.
He insists these papers the Government has refused to release - on the basis that “final decisions”have not been made - should be made public so people can see what he’s saying for themselves.
Without the papers, it’s hard to know exactly what these changes are and judge if they are in fact “discriminatory”, as Peters has alleged.
But National is clearly comfortable its followed proper process and the Indian Government has agreed to whatever changes its making, as is usual in trade negotiations.
As for the substance of National’s pledge, Tim Groser - the country’s former top trade negotiator and National trade minister - has praised its direction of travel.
“It’s both encouraging and exactly what we need for a longer term vision for us,” he told The Post.
“We’ve made tremendous progress as a country over the last 30 or 40 years in solving some very fundamental threats to our economy and to our export industry and I think what they’ve done is just define the next frontier.”
That frontier can be split into three key areas; Europe, South America and Africa - each of which has been identified for specific and unique reasons.
National thinks there is ground to be gained in Europe outside the European Union (EU) by targeting wealthy countries like Switzerland that may be open to working with New Zealand now it has an FTA with the EU.
It’s also identified physical in roads into South America by way of more flights coming online after the government made it easier for people to fly there via New Zealand by scrapping some transit visas.
As for African nations that are traditionally protectionist, McClay believes countries are opening up to the idea of deals, describing it as “a decade long play”.
It’s a bold vision for New Zealand’s trade future and one that, subject to who National might have to work with if re-elected, may just work.