China’s missile shot into nuclear-free South Pacific not a bolt from the blue
Thursday, 9 July 2026
ANALYSIS: The ripple effects of a Chinese ballistic missile splashing into waters near Tuvalu on Monday are being felt across the globe, with serious implications for the nuclear-free Pacific.
Pacific nations - including New Zealand - have for decades fought to ban nuclear weapons and testing from their vast and mostly unpopulated waters.
Politicians from all corners of the blue continent have seen the value in promoting an “Ocean of Peace” as a way to collectively push back against superpower rivalry in the region.
But Australia’s acquisition of nuclear submarines under the Aukus defence pact - even as it shores up closer relations with Pacific nations - threatens to upset this delicate eco-system, and China has responded in kind.
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China’s 7000km nuclear missile test: Calculated or coincidence?
About 4pm Monday NZT China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile that travelled about 7000 kilometres from the South China Sea - over the exclusive economic zones of Micronesia, Nauru and Kiribati - before splashing down near Tuvalu. Its exact location is still unknown.
It was the first time Beijing had fired a ballistic missile into the South Pacific from a nuclear-powered submarine; the nuclear missile it tested in 2024 was fired from a land-based launch.
Two tests in three years - after a 40-year hiatus - is extraordinary and could have served a few purposes for China: one being a technical assessment of how its kit performs and another a flex of its military muscle as it squares up against the US.
There is a third purpose that could be at play - China sending a message to Pacific nations about how it feels about recent activity in the region.
News of the missile broke several hours after Australia and Fiji signed a defence pact, effectively promising to come to each other’s aid if the other is attacked.
Australia has also just signed a new security pact with Vanuatu that makes Australia its primary policing and security partner, and bars foreign military bases from Vanuatu’s soil.
China has denied the missile was related to the new Australia-Fiji defence alliance.
“It is a routine arrangement in China’s annual military training program. It is consistent with international law and customary international practice and is not directed at any specific country or target,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, said.
Whether the timing of the launch was calculated or pure coincidence, there can be no doubt it has changed the strategic landscape in the South Pacific.
As Victoria University international relations expert David Capie points out, New Zealand and other Pacific nations don’t want the South Pacific becoming “a splashdown zone” for China’s nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.
While it’s not unheard of for nuclear powers around the world to test their capabilities, China’s ballistic missile was fired into the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, established by the Treaty of Rarotonga.
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has been clear that New Zealand thinks China’s action “goes against the object and intent of that Treaty” - even if the missile itself had no nuclear material.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale and chair of the Pacific Islands Forum has also said: “We don't want to see any more countries — China, America, anybody — testing [intercontinental ballistic missiles] in the Pacific Islands region, that's the bottom line. Be our friend, but don't threaten us.'
Monday’s missile, while not technically illegal, is a tricky situation to navigate for Pacific nations - many of whom now rely on China for aid.
These countries have consistently advocated against the South Pacific being used as a superpower theatre, and are dealing with their own domestic challenges like climate change and the cost of living.
They now find themselves in the middle of a superpower struggle over nuclear force and the firing of a second nuclear missile in just three years - alongside Chinese warships conducting live firing drills in the Tasman Sea in February last year - indicates the problem may not go away in the short term.
The Pacific Islands Forum - the key political grouping in the Oceania region - will bring the Pacific leaders of all 18 member states together in Palau in early September.
There will no doubt be much to discuss as the “Pacific family” considers what this development means for the nuclear-free South Pacific.