No KiwiSaver bounce, but coalition still ahead in latest poll

Thursday, 9 July 2026

The latest Taxpayer Union Curia Research Poll has landed and shows neither Labour nor National Party getting significant bounces from their annual conferences.

Labour was the highest polling party on 31.5%, but was down 0.7% from the same poll a month prior - while National was on 30.5%, up 0.4%.

Translated to Parliament, the combined projected seats for the coalition were 62, while projected seats for the opposition were 58, no change from the month before.

Labour would get 41 seats, National 39, the Greens 13, NZ First 14, ACT 9 and Te Pāti Māori would have 4.

The Greens have the largest dip, falling 1.1% to 10.4%, while NZ First fell 0.6% to 10.8%, ACT was down 0.9% to 6.9% and Te Pāti Māori was up 0.3% to 3.4%.

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In the preferred prime minister rankings Chris Hipkins is slightly ahead on 19.2%, against Christopher Luxon's 19.1%.

Winston Peters was on 11.8%, Chlöe Swarbrick 4.6%, and David Seymour 5.1%.

The poll comes after dust on the Budget has settled, and a new compulsory KiwiSaver policy from National. The mood within National has been significantly better of late, but the poll suggests little movement in public sentiment.

Over the past month, Labour has announced several policies, including making maternity scans and prescriptions free. Its home solar system policy, announced on Wednesday, came too late to have any sway on this poll's results.

The last poll showed no Budget bump for the coalition, but it kept its hold on power, while Labour led the field as the highest polling party on 32.2% compared with National’s 30.1%.

The poll before that was a horror result poll for National, putting the party at 28.4% - it’s worst showing since Luxon became leader, and one that triggered a leadership vote he ultimately survived.

The new Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll surveyed 1000 people between July 1 to 5. Curia is a pollster for the National Party, and the poll is carried out by the Taxpayers’ Union.

The poll’s margin of error was 3.1%.