Global aircraft shortage hits NZ: Auckland Airport warns of seat squeeze and high fares through 2030
Monday, 9 March 2026
OPINION: The worldwide shortage of planes continues to put the squeeze on airline capacity globally and New Zealand is especially vulnerable.
In its interim result, Auckland Airport says while the outlook for passenger demand is positive, continued fleet shortages are expected to weigh on availability of new seat capacity in the near term. The company’s result shows international seat capacity is still below 89.3% of what it was five years ago, before Covid-19 hit.
Cirium data shows the number of international seats to all New Zealand airports in 2025 was 8.4 million, down 800,000 compared to 2019 as airlines struggle to build up fleets.
Auckland Airport’s chief customer officer Scott Tasker says the shortage of new planes is hitting airlines, airports and passengers around the world.
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Last year Boeing and Airbus delivered around 240 wide body aircraft, down on about 410 delivered the year before the pandemic hit. At a time when demand for travel is exceeding pre-pandemic levels in most countries, delayed aircraft deliveries mean airlines have to keep older planes flying for longer and are not expanding at the rate they’d like to.
‘‘That’s a handbrake on the entire system,’’ says Tasker.
The airport, with 67% of the country’s international capacity, has attracted Thai Airways back with daily flights later this year. But the protracted negotiations and necessity to rebuild the business case to fly here was an example of how airlines are carefully calculating where to deploy scarce resources - planes.
‘’Whether it’s Thai or another airline getting some aircraft, they are not coming at the rate they probably would like them and they’re going to think very carefully about where they put that capacity.’’
Air New Zealand will get the first of 10 new Dreamliners next month and another in June. But they will be close to two years late. After pausing its order early in the pandemic, Air NZ had hoped to have the planes in 2024.
Boeing is ramping up production now but has been beset by delays due to stricter scrutiny of safety practices and supply chain bottlenecks as well as industrial action last year.
Refurbishment of the airline’s existing 14 Dreamliners suffered some delays caused by supply chain issues. What is stretching into a decade of engine maintenance issues - the main contributor to Air NZ’s $40m after-tax half-year loss reported last month - can also be partly blamed on the wider supply chain and labour issues afflicting aviation.
The pandemic exposed weaknesses in aerospace manufacturing that had become increasingly outsourced to a range of suppliers scattered around the globe for more and more sophisticated aircraft.
Covid-19 meant the closure of some small family businesses making highly specialised assembly tools or parts, many highly skilled workers and regulatory specialists were tipped into retirement and Russia’s supply of much of the titanium for global aerospace was choked off when it invaded Ukraine.
Simon Russell, chief executive of New Zealand firm Eagle Aviation Consulting, says the aircraft shortage is most acutely felt in risky long haul markets such as New Zealand.
Airlines are cautious about returning or building up capacity or worse - giving this country the swerve as VietJet did before it even started last year. He says the Vietnamese airline saw better commercial potential in Russia’s far east.
Latest Stats NZ data shows international fares were up 4% for the full year to January and a shortage of capacity was likely to mean they stay relatively high, says Russell. Kiwis travelling overseas in record numbers now have fewer options, especially on long-haul routes and this is also hitting tourists coming to this country, making what is an expensive trip even pricier.
The days of bargain return fares of $1500 or less between this country and Europe are long gone, he says. Big aircraft lessor Avolon expects a shortage of wide-body aircraft to persist into the 2030s, citing sustained delivery constraints and rising international demand.
The company said wide-body production remains well below pre-pandemic levels, while narrow-body availability, though less constrained, is also expected to remain tight through the end of the decade.
According to Avolon, the industry is expected to produce about 4000 fewer aircraft this decade than originally planned.
“The structural undersupply of wide-bodies will last longer than the market anticipates and will be felt more acutely as international markets continue to drive traffic growth,” said Avolon.
A report for the International Air Transport Association estimated that the cost to the airline industry of supply chain bottlenecks will be more than $18 billion due to airlines operating older, less efficient planes for longer, higher maintenance costs, increased engine leasing costs and surplus inventory holding costs.