Green pastures or scorched earth: Selwyn considers its future in different climate scenarios
Tuesday, 18 June 2024
The children of Selwyn could inherit a green and growing district connected by mass rapid transport - or parched pastures struggling to survive. BRETT KERR-LAURIE reports.
It’s 2099. Global temperatures have risen to a dangerous level and the ill-effects of climate change are felt across Aotearoa.
Selwyn’s weak infrastructure has left it vulnerable to natural hazards. Fights for resources intensify, innovation slows, and costs rise.
Families migrate to Christchurch for easier employment, devastating rural settlements. Social isolation and loneliness are commonplace.
“Our new normal is one of competition, struggle and adversity.”
That is the most “doomsday” of one of four climate change related scenarios Selwyn District Council has outlined in the draft version of its ultra long-term vision, Waikirikiri Ki Tua Future Selwyn.
The scenarios suggest climate change could cause Selwyn’s population to grow rapidly or even shrink over the next 50-100 years, depending on the change in temperature.
The document was prompted by Selwyn’s population explosion - it is the fastest growing district in the country, increasing 29% over five years to nearly 80,000 people in 2023.
It’s 4000 people away from surpassing Timaru and Ashburton districts combined, and is expected to have a similar population to Dunedin (currently 130,000) in 10 years time.
Future Selwyn looks beyond the immediate term to explore scenarios the district could find itself facing in coming generations - both good and bad - and what factors could contribute to those scenarios.
In the most favourable climate scenario, in which temperatures are kept to a 1.5C increase above pre-industrial levels, advanced technology transforms how residents live, move and work. Growing populations in rural towns enrich the green district, which is connected by considerable public transport links.
In another scenario where temperatures rise by up to four degrees, Selwyn continues to experience high growth as rising waters force communities inland. In that scenario global food shortages fuel the district’s agricultural sector, creating jobs but increasing the demand on water. The influx of people adds to this, disrupting social cohesion and overwhelming under-invested public transport.
Ineffective international action on climate change leads to a third scenario, in which global temperature increases exceed 4C. Selwyn - self-sufficient and with a smaller population - escapes the worst of global food, health and water insecurity, but faces competition for resources, struggle and adversity. Still dependent on fossil fuels, the district’s energy security is compromised. Growth is modest and then dwindles as people move to Christchurch for jobs, damaging the sense of community.
In the final scenario, where temperatures surpass 4.5C, communities prioritise conservation in the face of severe climate change. District wide eco-friendly efforts create jobs, but carbon intensive industries unable to adapt leave many stranded.
Although these future scenarios are up to 100 years away, Selwyn district mayor Sam Broughton said it was vital to start planning now so they can secure the best possible option.
“As we think about the future we want to create, we have to be able to take immediate steps - this year and next year.”
Once finalised, the document will serve as a foundation for all council decision-making, planning and investment in Selwyn.
He said 12 months of work had gone into the draft document, which also considered what urban direction the district needed to go in.
It noted Selwyn’s current transport systems would not support its growing community without “significant transformation” - likely in the form of mass rapid transit.
Ideal transport included a mass transit route between Rolleston and Prebbleton, passenger rail through Rolleston North to Dunsandel and Darfield, and general public transport.
Housing was an area of concern too, with the document noting “there is little variety in the housing typologies across Waikirikiri Selwyn, which does not provide suitable housing choice at a range of price points”.
Selwyn would need to grow “both up and out in the future”, so it was important to strike a balance in the type of housing constructed, such as apartments and duplexes.
The next step for Future Selwyn is opening submissions to the public, from July 1 to August 4, so it can be further refined to reflect the community’s desires.
“There’s something unique about our community,” Broughton said. “So many New Zealanders had this to be the place they moved to over the past 10 years.”
If the council didn’t put in some “solid thinking” now and engage with the community about the future it wanted, it would miss a crucial opportunity, he said.
Waikirikiri Ki Tua Future Selwyn can be explored through an interactive website here.
“It’s our roadmap to a future where everyone in Selwyn can thrive,” Broughton said.